Tuesday, May 31, 2016

The Breakdown: ABC Monday in 2015-16 (Dancing with the Stars, The Bachelor, Castle)




It's time for a journey through the ABC Monday schedule in 2015-16...


fall

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15Dancing with the Stars FallCastle115
122122101
2015-16Dancing with the Stars FallCastle111 (-4%)
127 (+4%)127 (+4%)77 (-24%)
VsAvg+21%-7%-33%-7%
Rank6/1510/1513/1513/15

The fall season of Dancing with the Stars ended up growing again in A18-49+, thanks to the league average decline steepening later in the season. It actually ended up being the highest-rated DWTS season in Plus since fall 2011. But it was of absolutely no help to Castle, which opened season eight on a new series low and stayed in the very low 1's for most of the rest of the season.

winter

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15The BachelorCastle123
14014089
2015-16The BachelorBachelor Live127 (+4%)
157 (+13%)157 (+13%)67 (-25%)
VsAvg+49%+45%-20%+28%
Rank1/151/1512/151/15

Perhaps ABC's biggest win of the season was the winter run of The Bachelor, one of the very few shows on television to grow in raw numbers in a year of record-setting league average decline. After the brief Bachelor Live run pictured above, Castle returned with just a 73 average in this period. Even with relative stinkers in the 10/9c hour, it was still the best A18-49+ lineup ABC has had on Monday during the winter months. And it was Bachelor's best season in Plus since season two back in fall 2002!

spring

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15Dancing with the Stars SpringCastle110
12412384
2015-16Dancing with the Stars SpringCastle106 (-4%)
121 (-2%)121 (-2%)76 (-10%)
VsAvg+6%+3%-14%-1%
Rank9/158/1512/1510/15

The spring 2016 season of DWTS saw the show's first year-to-year decline in A18-49+ since all the way back in spring 2013 (the last time it aired on two nights all season). Still not that bad of a trend, but it can't blame the competition as The Voice had a relatively "bad" season as well. Castle slowed its declines a good bit in this period, thanks in part to the series finale spike.

The Shows

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Dancing with the Stars Fall*1.61.902.4-11%130hit+3%detail
The Bachelor*2.02.362.9+1%162big hit+17%detail
Dancing with the Stars Spring*1.61.752.0-17%120solid-4%detail
Castle*0.81.091.3-30%75marginal-20%detail

Dancing with the Stars Fall: Already updated.

The Bachelor: Technically would not have been up in raw numbers if the 2015 season hadn't had a low-rated two-hour Sunday episode. Even without that little inflation, it was one of the very best seasons on all of broadcast, and on a network that had many problems elsewhere. Grade: A.

Dancing with the Stars Spring: The spring table above doesn't account for the show's worst point of the season: the measly 1.6 Tuesday finale last week. Kinda wish I'd been kinder to the fall season, in light of the league average decline being much larger than the projection at the time. But with this spring season, the streak of Plus growth did officially come to an end. Grade: C+.

Castle: After six straight years in the 90s and 100s Plus-wise, this 75 was one brutal step downward, especially considering its strong lead-ins, and it ended with a cancellation. It held up better late in the season than many other ABC shows, but was still not strong enough to separate itself from the bubble. Grade: D.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Check back tomorrow for this day's new Schedules Plus! Till then, you can refer to the old version.

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