Wednesday, June 19, 2019

The Breakdown: NBC Tuesday in 2018-19 (The Voice, This Is Us, New Amsterdam and more!)




It's time for a journey through the NBC Tuesday schedule in 2018-19...


fall

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2017-18The VoiceThis Is UsLaw and Order True Crime179
18625696
2018-19The VoiceThis Is UsNew Amsterdam182 (+2%)
174 (-6%)234 (-9%)139 (+45%)
VsAvg+46%+69%+22%+47%
Rank5/182/182/181/18

The declines finally began for This Is Us in season three, and The Voice was down too. But NBC still managed its best fall Tuesday in the era thanks to a huge dose of improvement at 10/9c with medical drama New Amsterdam.

winter

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2017-18Ellen's Game of GamesThis Is UsChicago Med181
182231129
2018-19Ellen's Game of GamesThis Is UsNew Amsterdam153 (-15%)
161 (-12%)194 (-16%)105 (-18%)
VsAvg+66%+67%-3%+43%
Rank2/183/1810/183/18

Once New Amsterdam started getting compared against a potent year-ago occupant, though, the whole night looked a lot worse. This Is Us' declines also accelerated after the new year, and Ellen's Game of Games dropped double digits from its enormous season one run.

spring

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2017-18The VoiceRiseChicago Med106
1517197
2018-19The VillageThe VoiceNew Amsterdam84 (-21%)
65 (-57%)103 (+45%)83 (-14%)
VsAvg-38%+4%-23%-20%
Rank13/1810/1816/1814/18

Things predictably got much messier after This Is Us was gone, as New Amsterdam was not able to hold up as well with a flop lead-in as Med did a year ago. After three episodes at 10/9c and just two at 9/8c, NBC shuffled The Village down to 8/7c and was able to salvage an OK end to the season from New Amsterdam. But The Voice's declines were most staggering, including a fractional run in late April and early May.

Rating the Ratings

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
The Voice Tue Fall*1.41.672.2-18%175big hit-6%detail
Ellen's Game of Games1.21.431.7-28%151big hit-18%detail
The Village0.60.660.869flopdetail
This Is Us1.72.013.0-26%212megahit-14%detail
The Voice Tue Spring*0.91.212.1-29%127hit-18%detail
New Amsterdam0.61.061.8112soliddetail

The Voice Tue Fall: Already updated.

Ellen's Game of Games: Last year's sensation held onto a big hit average even though it had to throw in some March and April airings this year. The late-season low 1's didn't seem that amazing at the time, but when The Voice started struggling to break 1.0 in the spring... Grade: C+.

The Village: Held up OK enough at 8/7c that I think I would say it was ultimately not quite as weak as Rise last year? It's not a huge margin either way, though. Grade: D.

This Is Us: It posted a third megahit season, which puts it in fairly exclusive company, but it's declining now; it's just a question of what the rate of decline will be going forward. Another megahit season seems a bit ambitious, but if it can keep declining at this rate, it'll hang onto hit-level ratings through the end of its three-year renewal. If it suddenly starts tanking by 25% like seasons three and four of Empire, it could be out of hit territory in two years. Compared with the declines for the third seasons of Empire and Desperate Housewives, this is not that bad. Grade: C+.

The Voice Tue Spring: Already updated.

New Amsterdam: The spring episodes after The Village weren't a great sign, but it's also impossible to ignore the kind of improvement that it posted vs. True Crime in the fall. While it might be easy to call it "lead-in dependent" based on how it perked back up with a Voice lead-in, it was also a stellar DVR gainer (not far from Manifest in that regard). Grade: B+.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Here's the now updated Schedules Plus for NBC Tuesday.

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