Thursday, July 6, 2017

A18-49+ Update: Originals vs. Repeats, Comedies vs. Dramas in 2016-17


Here's a look at the different types of programming in 2016-17. This post will combine the broad programming categories (originals, repeats, sports, specials, movies) as well as the sub-categories within the original series realm (comedies, dramas, reality, news).

Big Four Category Ratings

YearOverallOriginalsRepeatsSpecialsMoviesSports
2001-0298100819276157
2002-0393100758664135
2003-0494100759366159
2004-0594100698563159
2005-0692100658154146
2006-0791100609252136
2007-0890100558454152
2008-0993100539252162
2009-10961005010847196
2010-1193100519847199
2011-12971005010145223
2012-13981004910447229
2013-141031004711349250
2014-151021004711850254
2015-161081005111652270
2016-171161005613762307



The league average decline was so brutal in 2016-17 that literally every other category had a huge jump relative to the original average... even things like repeats and movies!

Big Four Category Real Estate

YearOriginalsRepeatsSpecialsMoviesSports
2001-0258%13%6%14%8%
2002-0362%14%5%13%6%
2003-0461%19%4%11%5%
2004-0563%20%5%8%5%
2005-0662%20%3%8%7%
2006-0763%23%3%5%6%
2007-0861%23%3%5%7%
2008-0965%19%6%4%6%
2009-1062%22%4%4%8%
2010-1164%21%4%4%6%
2011-1266%20%4%2%7%
2012-1364%21%6%2%8%
2013-1462%20%6%2%9%
2014-1566%18%6%3%8%
2015-1666%17%6%2%9%
2016-1765%16%6%3%10%



But this isn't to suggest that repeats are making a comeback; in fact, for the third year in a row, they were down to their lowest levels since 2002-03. I maintain this is part of the reason why the repeat average has had a bit of a comeback; only the good ones are surviving. As always, it's worth keeping in mind that repeats were only so low at the beginning of the era because movies were so viable. The "repeats+movies" average was still stuck at one of its lowest totals of the era.

Another interesting note here is that sports ticked into double digits for the first time in the entire era. With Winter Olympics on tap next year, there is no sign of that trend ending.

Big Four Original Sub-Category Ratings

YearComedyDramaRealityNews
2001-021211049872
2002-031169712766
2003-041019614166
2004-058211311661
2005-067711112060
2006-078410711958
2007-089810111161
2008-0910110011662
2009-101019911661
2010-111109412161
2011-121179411459
2012-131039412065
2013-141019411871
2014-151079511970
2015-161009611777
2016-171089112379



2016-17 saw another significant swing from drama back toward comedy, with big expansions on the two strongest comedy networks (ABC/CBS). Though American Idol went out of the mix, Fox mostly just replaced it with scripted stuff, and very healthy seasons from most of the staples meant the average for the remaining reality staples was also on the upswing. It's not a huge departure from where it's been for the last 10 years, but the 123 reality average was still the highest since 2003-04.
 

Big Four Original Sub-Category Real Estate

YearComedyDramaRealityNews
2001-0221%44%14%21%
2002-0319%42%19%20%
2003-0421%41%19%20%
2004-0516%41%26%17%
2005-0616%45%23%15%
2006-0711%48%26%15%
2007-089%40%38%12%
2008-0911%49%28%12%
2009-1013%45%30%12%
2010-1114%43%30%13%
2011-1216%41%30%12%
2012-1319%40%29%12%
2013-1420%44%27%9%
2014-1515%50%24%11%
2015-1615%51%24%10%
2016-1717%51%21%10%



As mentioned on the Networks post, Fox's departure from reality programming has been staggering, and it is most of the reason why the reality real estate fell to its lowest level since the very early years of Idol. And the aforementioned ABC/CBS comedy expansions saw a couple points go into that total. Overall, this adds up to an unprecedented imbalance between scripted and unscripted programming; after many years of about a 60% scripted/40% unscripted mix, we are now getting closer to 70/30.

Here's the now updated A18-49+ programming categories post.

Here's the now updated A18-49+ original sub-categories post.

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