The Question, Thursday 12/20/12: Will Fox's Fall End X-tradordinarily?

With only burnoffs and low-priority stuff airing for the next week and a half, I'm declaring tonight's The X Factor finale the unofficial end of the fall 2012 season. While NBC's success this fall has largely been about The Voice's success, Fox's struggles have largely been about The X Factor's struggles. The show limped out of the gate, appeared to bounce back temporarily, got derailed by baseball scheduling, and has only slightly recovered since then. Tonight, Fox hopes to send the show onto hiatus (and yet another revamp) on a redemptive note. Will Fox's fall end X-traordinarily? That's The Question for Thursday, December 20, 2012.

The X Factor In Recent Weeks	The X Factor Finale Last Season
2.8 (Wed 12/5/12, -18% year-to-year) 2.5 (Thursday 12/6/12, -14%) 2.7 (Wednesday 12/12/12, -21%) 2.4 (Thursday 12/13/12, -17%) 2.7 (prelim Wed 12/19/12, -18%)	3.8 (Thursday 12/22/11) +31% vs. penultimate Thursday airing (2.9) +15% vs. final Wednesday airing (3.3)

Tuesday's The Voice finale may have done a little better than expected, but really it fell right about in line with the year-to-year trends of recent episodes. So that's what I expect The X Factor to do: somewhere in the upper teens to 20% below last year's finale. That's all I got.

Over/Under: 3.05.

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