Thursday, December 20, 2012

The Question, Thursday 12/20/12: Will Fox's Fall End X-tradordinarily?


With only burnoffs and low-priority stuff airing for the next week and a half, I'm declaring tonight's The X Factor finale the unofficial end of the fall 2012 season. While NBC's success this fall has largely been about The Voice's success, Fox's struggles have largely been about The X Factor's struggles. The show limped out of the gate, appeared to bounce back temporarily, got derailed by baseball scheduling, and has only slightly recovered since then. Tonight, Fox hopes to send the show onto hiatus (and yet another revamp) on a redemptive note. Will Fox's fall end X-traordinarily? That's The Question for Thursday, December 20, 2012.

The X Factor In Recent Weeks The X Factor Finale Last Season
2.8 (Wed 12/5/12, -18% year-to-year)
2.5 (Thursday 12/6/12, -14%)
2.7 (Wednesday 12/12/12, -21%)
2.4 (Thursday 12/13/12, -17%)
2.7 (prelim Wed 12/19/12, -18%)
3.8 (Thursday 12/22/11)
+31% vs. penultimate Thursday airing (2.9)
+15% vs. final Wednesday airing (3.3)

Tuesday's The Voice finale may have done a little better than expected, but really it fell right about in line with the year-to-year trends of recent episodes. So that's what I expect The X Factor to do: somewhere in the upper teens to 20% below last year's finale. That's all I got.

Over/Under: 3.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

11 comments:

Spot said...

Underestimated The Voice and I really hope this one goes over too, so that's what I'm going with.

Spot said...

Under- Finales have not been bouncing much this year- except for Voice)
2.9

Spot said...

I'll go with under. I think a 2.9 is likely.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I'm compelled to pick under on this one.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over, if only because of the weaker competition tonight.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, a 10% increase over last Thursday is not at all unheard of

Spot said...

under, I guess

Spot said...

Just guessing that it finished as disappointingly as it started. 2.9.

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