Tuesday, December 18, 2012

The Question, Tuesday 12/18/12: Will The Voice Sing One Last Crescendo?


Tonight, for the last time for three months, NBC will air a piece of entertainment programming that gets good ratings. It's been real, NBC. Anyway, the second half of the Voice season has nonethless been a great success story for the peacock. The battle rounds held up incredibly well, and there wasn't all that much of a decline during the live show portion. In the last few weeks, it's been pretty consistently up vs. the spring season, but maintaining that pace against the big May finale is a lot to ask. Will The Voice sing one last crescendo? That's The Question for Tuesday, December 18, 2012.

The Voice In Recent Weeks The Voice Finale Last Season
3.9 (Monday 12/3/12, +3% year-to-year)
3.5 (Tuesday 12/4/12, +3%)
3.8 (Monday 12/10/12, +9%)
3.6 (Tuesday 12/11/12, +16%)
4.1 (prelim Mon 12/17/12, +8%)
4.4 (Tuesday 5/8/12)
+42% vs. penultimate Tuesday airing (3.1)
+16% vs. final Monday airing (3.8)

Maybe I should just follow the last few year-to-year trends and assume it'll be up 10% year-to-year or something and hit a 4.8 or 4.9. For some reason, getting that high just feels a little extreme. Perhaps it's because this season was never massive-rated at the beginning, so there's not some huge bloc of fans that could potentially come back. To take the same kind of jump, it'd have to be at pretty much season high ratings. It'll certainly be up from the recent upper-3's level, but I'm saying it's up just around 5% vs. last year's 4.4 finale.

Over/Under (from 9:00 to 11:00): 4.65.

Side bet (though it won't count in any official capacity): how many times between now and the next Voice premiere will an NBC entertainment series get even half of tonight's Voice rating...?


No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

14 comments:

Spot said...

Under.
Side bet: once. I don't know what that one thing will be, but I'm just thinking optimistically.

Spot said...

Under 4.6

Side Bet: 0 Times (they have no show that is not a Voice lead-out that can do it)

Spot said...

Under. And No, unless for some special programming

Spot said...

I'll say under at 4.5. Still a very solid end to a very solid season.

Side bet: Well half would be 2.25, so round that up to 2.3. I would say maybe the premiere of Biggest Loser...maybe. As for anything else...uhhhh...Revolution's after...Office finale's after...I'll get back to you on that.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Under.

New drama? Nah. TBL or Apprentice? Unlikely. Smash or one of the comedies without a massive lead-in? No. I say zero times to the side bet.

Spot said...

I think under is the safe way to roll on this one.

Spot said...

Under. I say 1 Office episode, though that's a pretty risky take.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Uh, how did you do italics? I still have no idea how to work Disqus beyond the basics...

Spot said...

Under.


Side bet: Perhaps one show. For NBC's sake, I hope it's one of their midseason dramas.

Spot said...

same as html

< I > < / I > for italics
< b > < / b > for bold
< a href="" > < / a > for a link

Spot said...

My take on the side bet: I think the only two with a real shot are the Biggest Loser and Apprentice premieres, but they're both longshots. It's also remotely possible some big Office stunt or maybe one of the drama premieres could sneak in there.

If the over/under was 0.5 times, I would slightly lean under, but adding all of those up I think it's close to 50% that SOMETHING does it. Just don't know which.

Spot said...

Oh, so it's pretty much exactly the same as TV By The Numbers. That makes it easy - I'm already fluent in that code.

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