Friday, December 21, 2012

The Climate, Week 12


Week-by-week:

Week Ending TPUT y2y bc y2y LeAv y2y
19/30/201232.4 -6% 9.2 -16% 2.50 -15%
210/07/201232.8 -5% 8.7 -15% 2.26 -17%
310/14/201233.7 -1% 8.6 -10% 2.33 -9%
410/21/201233.4 -3% 8.6 -6% 2.30 -6%
510/28/201234.2 -0% 9.1 -3% 2.12 -16%
611/04/201234.5 -0% 9.2 -9% 2.32 -11%
711/11/201235.1 +1% 9.3 -9% 2.30 -7%
811/18/201233.5 -5% 8.4 -14% 2.13 -11%
911/25/201232.4 -7% 8.4 -12% 2.02 -16%
1012/02/201234.3 +2% 8.8 +11% 2.32 -5%
1112/09/201233.4 -4% 8.0 -5% 2.03 -4%
1212/16/201233.2 -4% 7.9 -6% 2.18 -7%

Season-to-date:

Week Ending TPUTy2d y2dy2y bcy2d y2dy2y LAy2d y2dy2y
19/30/201232.4 -6% 9.2 -16% 2.50 -15%
210/07/201232.6 -5% 8.9 -15% 2.39 -16%
310/14/201233.0 -4% 8.8 -14% 2.37 -14%
410/21/201233.1 -4% 8.8 -12% 2.35 -12%
510/28/201233.3 -3% 8.8 -10% 2.31 -13%
611/04/201233.5 -3% 8.9 -10% 2.31 -12%
711/11/201233.7 -2% 8.9 -10% 2.31 -12%
811/18/201233.7 -2% 8.9 -10% 2.28 -12%
911/25/201233.5 -3% 8.8 -11% 2.26 -12%
1012/02/201233.6 -2% 8.8 -9% 2.27 -11%
1112/09/201233.6 -2% 8.7 -9% 2.24 -11%
1212/16/201233.6 -3% 8.7 -8% 2.24 -11%

The year-to-year recovery for broadcast viewing took another step up, now at just about half of what the deficit was after premiere week. The league average recovery has been slower, but there's an outside chance it could make it to -10% after the current week. It will be heavily fueled by The Voice's finale but also damaged by two hours of Made in Jersey on Saturday that seem capable of approaching all-time broadcast lows. I'm projecting it ends up in the -10.6% to -10.7% area.



Click to expand for more on the "climate" numbers used herein.

TPUT - This is an ESTIMATED average of how many people are watching TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • I derive these numbers by adding up all the ratings and dividing by all the shares in each of the 42 half-hours each week. That means there is some error relative to the numbers Nielsen actually releases. Sadly we don't regularly have access to those. I always advise not to rely heavily on these numbers for any one show in any one week, but the hope is that the error is minimized across a 42-timeslot sample every week.
  • I include the Old Methodology adjustment, which makes the number more like a measurement of how many people watch primetime programming Live + SD, rather than a measurement of how many people watch any TV (including old DVR stuff) from 8:00 to 11:00. This makes the number perhaps less intuitive in a vacuum, but it's pretty much a wash when making week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons, which is what we're really interested in.
bc - This is an average of how many people are watching national broadcast TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • This does NOT include the 10:00 adjustment used in the True2 calculation which attempts to account for Fox/CW programming and stronger cable. Again, that perhaps hurts the number in a vacuum, because the 10:00 numbers being used only include three networks, so I'm averaging timeslots that are somewhat apples-to-oranges. But again, it's a wash when making comparisons because I treat it that way all the time. It would not really change week-to-week or year-to-year comparisons, and that's what I mostly care about.
  • Another important note here is that these numbers include the preliminary averages for "sustaining" programming like presidential debates and commercial-free benefit concerts whose numbers are typically omitted from traditional Nielsen averages. I might eventually omit these from this particular calculation, but they're needed on my spreadsheets to 1) make PUT calculations in those timeslots and 2) create a competition number for the entertainment shows that air against them.
LeAv - This is a measurement of how many people watch the average moment of original entertainment series programming on the big four networks. Meaning, no sports, no reruns, no specials, no movies, no sustaining programming included.

2 comments:

Spot said...

All-time Big Four Low: 0.2 (set by Kings on 7/4/09, Escape Routes on 3/31/12 and 4/14/12)


Can MIJ go to a 0.1?


Over-under: 0.15


I take the over, at a 0.2

Spot said...

My pick is 0.3, what it got on Thanksgiving weekend, with some chance at a 0.2 and a small chance at 0.4+.

If I were doing a line, I think the best way to get close to 50-50 outcomes would be to pick 1) 0.3 or 2) "the field" (anything BUT 0.3).

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