Wednesday, October 6, 2010

First Two Weeks, No Ordinary Family


NO ORDINARY FAMILY (ABC)



Sampling: I would argue the 3.2 demo for the No Ordinary Family premiere was one of the most impressive series premieres on any net considering it had to lead off the night (while many of the shows above it on the SAMPLING list had huge lead-ins). But compared to its fellow ABC premieres, there was no contest. It finished nearly a point ahead of the Detroit 1-8-7 premiere from a week earlier, and that was the only even remotely reasonable drama premiere on the net.

Retention: Then came week two and a perfectly standard 16% drop to a 2.7 demo. It was not overwhelmingly good news nor anything to get alarmed about at all. A 2.7 demo against this pretty daunting competition (most notably Glee and  NCIS) remains a pretty solid number.

Prognosis: What I said in my fall preview was that I thought the show would ultimately get moved out of this tough hour if it did "anything at all" but was still struggling a bit. For me, "anything at all" was actually an even lower range than where the show's been so far. It'll be tough for this show to continue to hold up here, but if it settles around here or even into the low 2's I think we may see ABC get it out of the way of Idol to a slot where it can do better. At this point, it remains so far ahead of all the net's other drama newbies that it's basically impossible to pick against a back nine and a season 2. I can't see ABC not working to make this one work.

System (explanation)

SAMPLING
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
Better with You 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

RETENTION
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Blue Bloods -9%

Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%

The Whole Truth -20%  
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
My Generation -31%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Running Wilde, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase (2 points), The Whole Truth, Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

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