Friday, October 1, 2010

First Two Weeks, $#*! My Dad Says


Sampling: The $#*! My Dad Says ended up as premiere week's biggest series premiere outright, with its 4.0 demo in the final numbers edging it past fellow CBS newbies Mike & Molly and Hawaii Five-0. This came out of a very impressive 4.9 premiere for The Big Bang Theory, meaning a loss of 18% from the lead-in. 4.0 is obviously pretty great, but taking that dip in the 8:30 half-hour, where there's one of the biggest jumps in Households Using TV (HUT), is something to watch out for going forward.

Retention: The show then dropped 18% to a 3.3 demo in week two. It's not a great drop by any means, but also note that lead-in The Big Bang Theory shaved off a half-point to end up at a 4.4 in week two. So the lead-in retention % did get worse (down from 82.5% to 75%) but not catastrophically so. Its week two 3.3 number now trails the week two numbers of fellow high-premiering CBS programs Mike & Molly (3.7) and Hawaii Five-0 (3.6).

Prognosis: This is one of the few times that I'm actually going against what my system is going to say; it's gonna score in the "excellent" range based on my preview of "the system" earlier this afternoon. I'll say this will not make it into season 2. Maybe it's bias (admittedly I'm not a fan of the show) but I just think the big drops at 8:30 are going to continue to get worse, and with CBS owning at least two other shows that are looking great, they just may feel like they can do better than this in a post-Big Bang timeslot. Of course, if CBS wants to expand into a fourth hour of comedy on Thursdays at 9:00 as many are speculating, they may need this show even if it performs modestly. We'll see; I would not be shocked either way at this point. Either I win or "the system" wins on this one.

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