Tuesday, October 5, 2010

First Two Weeks, Blue Bloods


Sampling: The premiere of Blue Bloods got a 2.2 in adults 18-49, which doesn't seem like much, but it may well be one of the highest-rated series premieres we ever see on a Friday night going forward. It had 13 million total viewers, which I note for its impressiveness more than for its relevance, and it was also the night's top-rated show in A18-49. It also built by 10% from the 2.0 premiere of CSI: NY at 9:00. A 2.2 is nothing world-shattering even on Friday, but you can't complain too much about being the top show of the night.

Retention: The show then dropped 9% to a 2.0 demo, a fairly impressive hold for a new show, and especially in this bad year for newbies. This 2.0 looked even more impressive considering lead-in CSI: NY dropped three ticks in its second week on the night to a 1.7. And it remained rather comfortably the highest-rated show of the evening.

Prognosis: It seems easy to dub this the savior of a fast-fading Friday night and say that it will be around for many years to come. Maybe a little too easy. The start is certainly encouraging, but Blue Bloods still has to face the inherent problems of Friday night going forward. It won't take much for the viewers to start pouring away from this show as they did last season with the now-axed Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs and as they seem to be doing this year from Medium and CSI: NY. To actually maintain a 2.0 demo in this day and age on Friday night would be a pretty significant achievement. And there's also at least a small chance the show gets moved to Wednesday night and The Defenders' timeslot, and who knows what would happen in that contingency. I will predict a season two for Blue Bloods, though I am not quite as confident as some other people may be.

System (explanation)

$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Hellcats (3.2)

Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
Better with You 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Blue Bloods -9%

Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%

The Whole Truth -20%  
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
My Generation -31%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, Hellcats (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Running Wilde, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase (2 points), The Whole Truth, Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

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