Thursday, October 7, 2010

First Two Weeks, Law & Order: Los Angeles


Sampling: The premiere of Law & Order: Los Angeles pulled a pretty solid 3.2 demo, building by a half point from its Law & Order: SVU lead-in. It marked NBC's third fairly good fall premiere number, following the 3.6's from The Event and Outsourced, and it was certainly a higher number than anything the Law & Order mothership would've gotten had it been renewed for a 21st season.

Retention: But as has been the case with most NBC premieres, week 2 was quite ugly. The show plunged 25% to a 2.4 demo, the third-largest week two drop of any new show this season to date. (The two shows with worse drops are no longer in production.) It's actually found itself two ticks behind its SVU lead-in (2.6) already. It's undeniably a pretty bad result.

Prognosis: As I have said several times, the good premiere plus the big week 2 drop is one of the toughest scenarios to predict. A 2.4 is still even with week three of fellow newbie The Event, and it's still a pretty solid number by NBC's rather anemic drama standards. But considering the huge drop along with how low the mothership's numbers were last season, I can't say I'm too optimistic.  I was more bearish about the idea of a new L&O than many from the get-go, and even though the premiere was a bit stronger ratings-wise than I expected, I see no compelling reason to abandon that prediction now. I'm gonna continue to say this will be a one-season show.

System (explanation)

SAMPLING (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
Better with You 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4

Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

RETENTION (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12% 

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%

Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
My Generation -31%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Law & Order: Los Angeles (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Running Wilde, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase (2 points), The Whole Truth (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

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