Friday, February 12, 2010

First Two Weeks, Past Life

Just doing the first two episodes this time, as opposed to the rather arbitrary Human Target method. Despite the vastly different lead-ins, it seems fairer when the lead-in decreases for the second episode because any help from the lead-in for the premiere will be offset in the episode 2 decline. Anybody wants to bitch about it, have at it. At least it means people are reading. :-)

Past Life (Fox)

Sampling: A 2.8 demo is an OK performer in a lot of timeslots, but post-Idol is decidedly not one of them. The 28% retention in the demo out of an Idol lead-in is the worst that I've ever seen, and while there may be worse cases dating back before the widespread availability of TV ratings, I don't know about 'em.

Retention: Just two nights later, with a fairly decent-performing Bones rerun as its lead-in (though said rerun pulled only about 20% of the AI showing), Past Life pulls just a 1.4 demo. That is a 50% drop, which is easily the largest of this season, but not that surprising given the difference in 8:00 shows. I thought anything above 2.0 would be a miracle, but that doesn't make this number any better.

Prognosis: It is tough to get much more DOA with a post-Idol premiere than Past Life, and while the "true test" was supposed to be what it did in its real timeslot, the chances of it holding up were low at best, and it sure didn't hold up. This is not a television program that is going to be airing in the 2010-11 season.

The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*

Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Past Life 2.8

The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%

The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers, Life Unexpected, The Middle, Past Life (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

Shows already renewed for 2010-11 are greened, shows already axed are redded, the new show this entry is in blue. If this is your first of these First Two Weeks post, click the "new shows" label and head down to the bottom for more on the method behind this madness.

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