Friday, February 5, 2010

First Two Weeks, Human Target

First, here's how I'm doing this. I'm taking the series premiere, which aired on a Sunday at 8pm, and the series' fourth episode, which aired on a Wednesday at 8pm. I think these are the first two episodes that give us an indication of "true strength," as the show did better in terms of raw numbers during two post-American Idol episodes but that's mostly just because of the lead-in. So while jumping from the first to the fourth episode may seem like cheating, since a lot of shows drop a longer way over that period, I think it's offset by the extra sampling it got in episodes 2 and 3, so it's as good an analog as I can get with a show that aired four episodes in four different timeslots.

Sampling: Human Target got some bad luck when the NFL moved the Fox game on championship Sunday to the early afternoon, meaning its lead-in was the low-performing 24 finale. (EDIT: the 24 finale was a rerun, which is kinda important to note.) It premiered against some big competition, including a football-boosted 60 Minutes and the Golden Globes, but it still managed a decent 2.9 demo. Not great, but not necessarily a damning number, especially considering the circumstances.

Retention: Two and a half weeks later, the show aired again in the 8pm hour, this time managing just a 2.4 demo. That's a fairly standard 17% drop, again not great but not necessarily damning.

Prognosis: A couple of very average numbers puts this thing right in the "borderline" category on my system. On Fox, where the standard for scripted shows is above-average, I think it can probably be bumped a little below that. Based on recent shows in this timeslot that were in that 2.4 area (Lie to Me, which was barely renewed, and the axed Back to You) it could definitely go either way, and that's assuming it keeps the 2.4 going forward. Since there's a good chance that it won't keep the 2.4, that takes the prognosis downward. I'm saying this is a one-season show.

The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*

Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
The Middle 2.6

The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%

The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Middle, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers, Life Unexpected (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

New touch: shows already renewed for 2010-11 are greened, shows already axed are redded. Looks pretty accurate so far!!! The new show each post will be in blue.

If this is your first of these First Two Weeks post, click the "new shows" label and head down to the bottom for more on the method behind this madness.

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