Wednesday, November 11, 2009

First Two Weeks, V

Sampling: The largest demo for a series premiere to date this season. 5.2 demo. That's right up there with regular episodes of House and Grey's Anatomy. Lots of things were written about its historical significance; largest premiere for an ABC drama since Private Practice in 2007. Largest for an 8:00 drama since Lost in 2004. A big, big start.
Retention: The dropoff was expected, and maybe even more than expected. At a 27% decline, it's the largest A18-49 week 2 fall for a drama this season, and second among all shows only to Community. (The 31% drop for Melrose below is in W18-34; Melrose fell "only" 23% in A18-49.) The drop is very much on par with the week 2 drop for NBC's 2007 remake of The Bionic Woman, which was 28% (5.7 -> 4.1)
Prognosis: There's almost nothing harder to predict than something that premieres huge and drops huge. If it stays at its week 2 3.8 demo, it's a big success for ABC, but that just doesn't seem likely to happen to me. Huge premiere + huge drop = borderline by the below system, and that's about right. Could really go any way, but when the drop is this big, that's what I focus on. I'm saying this finds a way to not get to season 2. We shall see.


The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0

Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
The Middle 2.6

The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

The Good Wife +3%
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%

The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, Melrose Place, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

If this is your first of my "First Two Weeks" posts, I encourage you to click the "new shows" label and scroll down to the bottom.


Tamie said...

Now this is interesting. Do they still use Nielsons? Or how do they do it? I was a huge fan of V the originals.

Spot said...

Yep, same old Nielsens, taking a small sample of the population. Lots of people think it's a pretty antiquated system at this point, but until somebody comes up with a better idea, it's what we've got.

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