Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/5/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• The Wednesday finals are in. ABC had a down evening thanks to a repeat of Modern Family at 9/8c. That brought down lead-out Suburgatory by a relatively predictable amount, and it also seems to have nicked The Middle at 8/7c. But The Neighbors remains consistent and Nashville actually upticked in the less competitive 10/9c hour.

• NBC was of course on the upswing vs. its last episodes on Thanksgiving Eve, but for the most part it was pretty consistent with the regular airings three weeks ago. One notable exception: with CBS airing the always low-rated Grammy Nominations Concert (down 21% year-to-year and down 43% from the week-ago CSI), Chicago Fire took a huge surge, tying its second-best result of the season. (The only time it did better was when it aired after The Voice.)

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/4/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was one tough Tuesday in the TV ratings world. CBS won the night with its usual special powerhouses Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer and The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, but both were down over 20% (and at least a full point) year-to-year.

• Nobody else had much to report, either. ABC's special Shark Tank was a tenth weaker than the show's most recent Friday 9:00 episode and hit the show's typical number when it aired at 8:00. Fox's comedies all tied season/series lows (except for Raising Hope, which set a new one). And NBC saw The Voice revert to near its Tuesday low point from two weeks ago. The one good thing NBC can say is it seems Voice-fueled Go On is widening its lead over the comedy competitors.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/3/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• Following the big post-Thanksgiving upswing last Monday, most shows gave back some ground. It's worth noting in this consideration that ESPN had a very good night with Monday Night Football (6.0), up 50% from last week's much-weaker-than-usual 4.0. The CBS lineup, this time with a much weaker repeat of 2 Broke Girls at 8:30, was generally a little higher than two weeks ago (when 2.5 Men aired at 8:30) but noticeably down from last week when The Big Bang Theory was there.

• The annual crappy lead-in episode of Castle dropped by three tenths from its last post-Dancing with the Stars episode. Said crappy lead-in, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, dropped a chunk from last week when it aired after DWTS.

• NBC got a relatively Revolution-esque demo result from holiday special Blake Shelton's Not-So-Family Christmas, which proved a good match with Shelton's The Voice.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/2/12 (2012-13 Week Ten)

Sunday Night Football won this relatively full-strength week's True Top 25 by a decent margin. The Big Bang Theory was the top entertainment program, holding off Modern Family. Revolution was the only new show this week with Elementary posting a weak result, and nobody from Friday/Saturday sniffed the list.

An important note is that this is the last week before the "fall hype" adjustment kicks in on True2 scores, so there will be some funny-looking week-to-week upticks in these numbers next week. However, most of these shows are currently getting lower True2 scores than they were at the beginning of the season, so the December numbers shouldn't go well above everything before. Next summer I may work on smoothing the transition out somewhat so there isn't a tendency for the True2 scores to drop in November and then abruptly get uplifted in December.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 12/2/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was "winter finale" night for the ABC Sunday shows, which will return later this winter. And it wasn't really worth writing home about, as Once Upon a Time was even and Revenge only rallied by a bit from last week's super-low level.

• Fox sat out its animation anchors but saw the second-tier shows hold up decently after repeats. Bob's Burgers was down a couple tenths and American Dad! didn't drop at all. But in fairness, their lead-ins didn't drop that much because The Simpsons and Family Guy are among TV's best repeaters relative to their original numbers.

• Finals updates: NBC ended up with a relatively normal Sunday Night Football number even though it was a 5-6 team against a 3-8 team. That's the power of the Dallas Cowboys. Overrun night helped CBS' The Amazing Race and The Good Wife finish near their season high points. And another breakthrough season for The Walking Dead ended with no real spike for the finale (5.4). Still, the season as a whole was up 56% year-to-year and currently outrates any broadcast entertainment program, so I have a feeling they'll take it.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 12/1/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• By Fox standards, the Big Ten Championship game did rather well; this would've been a season high for CFB on Fox, and it gave the net a rare head-to-head win over ABC's Texas/Kansas State.

• The CBS lineup got a big boost thanks to the late-afternoon SEC Championship game. Made in Jersey did a number fairly in line with its pre-cancellation Friday results starting at 8:16 after the postgame (which had a 2.8 rating).

The Question, Tuesday 12/4/12: Will Shark Tank Nail Its Tuesday Pitch?

The "home-grown" Friday night success is rather rare these days. When it happens, there's a natural temptation to test whether it can work in a higher-viewed, higher-pressure situation. If we define passing that test as "permanent weeknight timeslot," then the last two (Blue Bloods and Grimm) failed. Blue Bloods got a boost, but it seemed less about a "better night" and more about the size of the Criminal Minds lead-in. And Grimm really didn't get any boost at all. Next up: tonight's Tuesday 8/7c tryout for Friday's surging unscripted program Shark Tank. Will Shark Tank nail its Tuesday pitch? That's The Question for Tuesday, December 4, 2012.

The Question, Monday 12/3/12: Is Castle Fortified Against a Bad Lead-in?

It's become a reliable holiday tradition at ABC; each year they air one original episode of Castle after pretty much the worst lead-in they can possibly think of. We're talking megabombs like Find My Family, Skating with the Stars and You Deserve It. (You remember all those, right?!) But it's always a fun opportunity for us ratings junkies to see where Castle is really at. Tonight the "honor" goes to a veteran show, but at this point it looks like Extreme Makeover: Home Edition may be nearly as ratings inept as all the rest. Is Castle fortified against a bad lead-in? That's The Question for Monday, December 3, 2012.

SpottedRatings.com This Winter

A few notes on the projects coming up around here over the next couple months:

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/30/12

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC's Last Man Standing and Malibu Country headed back in the positive direction following a couple weeks at 1.4, then ABC won the last two hours in inexpensive fashion with a great repeat showing from Shark Tank and a near-season high 20/20.

• Fox went with the Pac-12 Championship Game, which should end up somewhere in the low-1's and only a few tenths better than Fox's Saturday football average but an improvement over Fox's Friday regulars. All-original CBS was pretty steady, NBC basically sat out the evening, and Nikita hit a season high in its move to 8/7c, once again illustrating the power of the local programming lead-in on the CDub.