Monday, February 29, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: The Voice (Spring)

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

The Voice
3.08 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
183 3.08 Mon 8:00, Tue 8:00
y2y:-13% -3%

Timeslot OccupantsThe Voice Fall Superstore The Biggest Loser
Avg Orig Avg
3.12 3.12 3.12 2.72 1.41 1.30 1.08 1.01

In a Nutshell: Though NBC keeps pounding away with two cycles per calendar year, The Voice has never found the kinds of serious declines that plagued American Idol for the last five years. In fact, the spring and fall 2015 seasons were among the show's healthiest yet. Spring 2015 (pictured above) was down just 3% after accounting for the league average, and fall 2015 was actually up in Plus. Its fall lead-out Blindspot is also coming back from a long hiatus tonight.

Best Case: This show's trends have been improving, and there's no sign that will end. The fall season basically had the same raw numbers as the spring, and The Voice holds onto that very low-3 average one more time: 3.05 on Monday and 3.00 on Tuesday, down just 1% from last spring.

Worst Case: There are some signs that the collective reality TV upswing may be slowing down; Dancing with the Stars has been down about league average for the last two seasons, and Survivor is off to a soft start this spring. The small decline in the fall was largely about Gwen Stefani, and the return of Christina Aguilera will speed up the declines again. It's The Voice's biggest decline yet, down just over 20% to 2.42/2.28.

Likeliest: I'm not sure the show is as healthy as it appeared in the second half of the fall, but it would be hard to say it's unhealthy either. So I'm playing it safe with the same prediction I made in the fall: just a hair over a league average drop. 2.72/2.63.

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