Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: Survivor (Spring)

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

2.26 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
134 2.46 Tue 8:00, Tue 9:00
y2y:-5% +6%

Timeslot OccupantsSurvivor Fall 2 Broke Girls
Avg Orig Avg
2.15 2.15 2.14 2.12 1.65 1.66

In a Nutshell: Last spring, Survivor took its smallest year-to-year decline in nearly five years. It declined a bit more for the fall 2015 season, but it still marked the sturdy franchise's fourth consecutive less-than-average decline. This spring, Survivor returns to the "Brawn vs. Brains vs. Beauty" theme first introduced in spring 2014.

Best Case: Since its move to Wednesday, the spring seasons of Survivor have always been held back by stout unscripted competition from American Idol. But this time, Survivor faces Idol for only the first two weeks (and then once more in the April finale week). Combined with an exceptional cast, this show can grow in raw numbers for the first time in over a decade: up a tenth to 2.36.

Worst Case: Going -9% year-to-year in the fall was actually a bit of a disappointment by Survivor standards; it hadn't dropped that much in two years. It might have been hinting at the start of a long-overdue downturn for the franchise. It's down nearly 20% to a 1.82.

Likeliest: Like with The Amazing Race, I'm playing it pretty simple here and going just a couple hundredths behind the fall average. DST didn't seem to be much of a factor with this show last year, and it might be able to make even more hay in the period this year with Idol gone. It's -7.5% from last spring to 2.09.

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