Friday, February 12, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: The Amazing Race (Spring)

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

The Amazing Race
1.19 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
71 1.52 Tue 8:00, Tue 9:00
y2y:-32% -24%

Timeslot OccupantsThe Amazing Race Fall Undercover Boss
Avg Orig Avg
1.10 1.11 1.11 1.35 1.24 1.32

In a Nutshell: After a disappointing start to its Friday run, The Amazing Race has settled in over the last two seasons. It basically held its fall ratings in the spring 2015 season, then had the franchise's smallest year-to-year decline in several years (-5%) for the fall 2015 one. Unlike last spring, the Race doesn't get to preview its season on Wednesday this time, but it will try to juice the ratings by adding social media stars.

Best Case: This cast seems like a ploy to age down The Amazing Race. And while these people may not have huge followings (at least by Nielsen rating standards) individually, throw them all together and it can produce some real heat. The show takes a double-digit upswing to 1.35 and regularly dominates the hour after DST.

Worst Case: The Amazing Race is one of the more "prestigious" reality franchises, and its relatively affluent audience is not going to appreciate the show selling out to shallow Vine and Instagram whipper-snappers. And the people who actually follow these stars won't watch TV Live+SD, so there's really nobody left. Race drops about 25% to a 0.89.

Likeliest: Survivor and The Amazing Race seemed relatively DST-proof last year, and I think they'll be about that way again. This season will be down year-to-year a bit more than the fall season (which was -5%) just because it'll be hurt by not having that bonus Wednesday episode. But it still declines a bit less than average: -8% to a 1.09.

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