Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 9/30/14: Will ABC Love Its Selfie?


Tonight's ABC comedy duo Selfie and Manhattan Love Story are the first two of six series premieres across the next three days. They're the kind of young female-targeted shows ABC has failed to make work with the Modern Family lead-in for the last three years, now airing in a slot with much less support. There's no comedy competition, but a chunk of these shows' target audience is likely watching The Voice on NBC. Selfie is getting some decent reviews and the much larger promo push vs. Manhattan. And its leads may be recognizable... albeit from seemingly incompatible genre shows/movies. ABC seems to be banking mostly on Selfie to get reviled Manhattan Love Story off the ground; I've seen practically no promos for just Manhattan. I'm going a tad higher than I originally planned due to ABC's recent results, but I still see this being a soft start. Will ABC Love its Selfie? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 30, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Saturday 9/27/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • A well below-average Notre Dame/Syracuse football game on Saturday was arguably the biggest reason why ABC's premiere week was barely down year-to-year. If it had equaled (or even come close to) last year's 2.2 on Premiere Saturday, ABC probably gets even or just above it. Fox also had a big dud with Baylor/Iowa State.
  • NBC's Global Citizen Festival (at 9/8c between The Voice and SNL) was not officially counted in finals, but it had a 0.4 in prelims.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Sunday 9/28/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC's great night got much greater after finals as Once Upon a Time (3.7) and Resurrection (2.5) each picked up three tenths. For all my horrible Question lines last week, Resurrection's big bounce-back is the one that most surprises me. A big part of it was my underestimating the lead-in (which I figured would do 2.7 or 2.8), but it's still a pretty good show of strength even after accounting for that. Revenge (1.5) also inched upward.
  • For a night without a series premiere, the opening Sunday sure was full of surprises. The biggest by a wide margin was Fox's enormous one-hour crossover between The Simpsons and Family Guy (4.5), which would be Family Guy's biggest rating since January... of 2011. It was 73% above last season's premiere. There was also a great deal of heat in the halo at 8:00, with The Simpsons (3.9) about a third above its last premiere and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.6) up by double digits on last year's Bob's Burgers premiere.
  • It's pretty crazy that a huge bounce for the Frozen crossover on Once Upon a Time (3.4) is somehow playing second fiddle on this night. But it was still an incredible rating, zooming way past any rating from last season (including 31% above the 2013 premiere) to OUAT's biggest number since fall 2012. That helped Resurrection (2.2) skew a little younger and thus return pretty respectably, inching past last season's finale, but the heat was gone by Revenge (1.4) time. Revenge tied the spring finale but was down a whooping 39% from last season's start. ABC was +8% vs. last year's premiere Sunday.
  • CBS was left well behind as Madam Secretary (1.4) dropped 30% from its post-football premiere and CSI (1.4) had a slow start in its new Sunday slot. Madam is certainly not off the map yet, but it doesn't really look like something that would justify The Amazing Race's move to Friday. CBS was -19% vs. last year's premiere Sunday (also without an NFL overrun).
  • Cowboys-fueled football (8.7) was up nearly a point week-to-week.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Friday 9/26/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.9) picked up a tenth, putting it ahead of last year's one-hour premiere. (It averaged a 2.1 in the 9:00 hour, which was three tenths ahead of last year's 9:00 hour.) Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) lost a tenth, tying it with Blue Bloods and further darkening CBS' night.
  • A year after Hawaii Five-0 made a promising transition to Friday, things got off to a much rougher start for the CBS lineup this time. The first Friday episode of The Amazing Race (1.1) barely managed half of its premiere last fall (2.0) and was well below even the spring premiere against the Olympics (1.5). Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.2) also took significant dips from last year's premieres. The Amazing Race could bounce back a bit once Shark Tank is out of the 8/7c mix, but it looks very likely to be a weaker player than Undercover Boss last year. CBS was a disheartening 26% behind last year's premiere Friday.
  • As for ABC, it had another strong premiere from Shark Tank (1.8 for the two hours) and 20/20 (1.6). This was 20% above last year's premiere Friday when they had family comedies in the 8:00 hour.
  • NBC slightly improved on last year's premiere Friday with two hours of Dateline (1.4), while Fox took another massive drop as Utopia (0.7) was at less than half of year-ago occupant MasterChef Junior. The big five combined to go about 12% behind last year's opening Friday.

SpotVault - Once Upon a Time (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings





Once Upon a Time
Sundays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - Resurrection (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings





Resurrection
Sundays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - Revenge (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings





Revenge
Sundays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - Family Guy (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings





Family Guy
Sundays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings





Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Sundays, 8:30/7:30c, Fox







SpotVault - The Simpsons (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings





The Simpsons
Sundays, 8/7c, Fox







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