Network Season Averages in the 2000s

This is another thing, like my recent cable syndication deals list, that seems like it should've been done somewhere already. It maybe/probably has and I just don't know about it. Anyway, here's my version. These are the adults 18-49 averages for each of the big four broadcast networks across the last ten regular seasons.

These averages include sporting events like the Olympics and Super Bowl which typically have noticeable effects on the averages. Ideally I'd love to get averages of just entertainment programming, but this is all I could find for now.

War of 18-49 Update, America's Next Top Model (fall 2010)

Let's take a look at the fall 2010 cycle (the fifteenth overall) of America's Next Top Model on the CW.


Fall 2010 adults 18-49 low/average/high: 1.1/1.30/1.5.

Rating the Ratings: C+. Top Model is still one of the CW's strongest shows, but the drops continue; it's down 14% from the 1.51 average posted in both the fall 2009 and spring 2010 cycles. That's not a bad drop for a show of this age, and it's the show's smallest year-to-year percentage drop in the fall since 2007.  It's been clearly eclipsed by sophomore The Vampire Diaries for the top spot on the CW totem pole; even that 1.5 high for the season finale trails the vast majority of TVD episodes to date this season. But I suppose it's good news for the CW that their top program is finally something actually developed in the CW era.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for Top Model.

Ratings Five-Spot, WE 12/5/10 - Holiday Specials, Sons of Anarchy/Terriers, Heat in Cleveland, The Walking Dead, Men of a Certain Age

Here's your Five-Spot of TV ratings news for the week ending December 5, 2010:

Holiday Specials - This is mostly a cable edition of the Ratings Five-Spot, as it was a fairly boring week in broadcast ratings. But of note were all the holiday specials, and here's a quick A18-49 ratings rundown: CMA Country Christmas (ABC) 1.4, How The Grinch Stole Christmas (ABC) 2.2, Shrek the Halls (ABC) 2.4, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (CBS) 3.9, Xmas at Rockefeller Center (NBC) 1.9, Santa Claus is Comin' To Town (ABC) 2.3. Might list a few of the current week's in next week's edition.

The War of 18-49, The Unit

THE UNIT (CBS)

Why post this on Tuesday? Military drama The Unit aired its first three seasons on the night, then moved to Sunday for its final season.

See (who saw) how it all began: The Unit was a midseason replacement for CBS during the 2005-06 season, but its premiere was pretty strong: 18.50 million viewers and a 5.1/12 demo on March 3, 2006. It dropped just 4% to a 4.9 demo in week two, but from there most of its spring 2006 episodes would rate in the upper 3's and low 4's.

Opinion Five-Spot, WE 12/5/10 - Survivor, Psych, Fringe, The Office

Here's my Opinion Five-Spot for the week ending December 5, 2010:

Survivor - My goal was to not get too redundant with these, but here's Survivor for the fourth time in five Opinion Five-Spots. How can I not talk about DoubleQuitGate? Plenty have voiced their distress that Na'Onka and Purple Kelly are still on the jury after quitting, but what amazed me was how nobody on the show thought about the quitting in terms of alliances or game dynamics. It was all about the morality of quitting. I guess it just goes to show how little actual gameplay there has been in this rather subpar season.

The War of 18-49, Prison Break

PRISON BREAK (FOX)

Why post this on Monday? 75 of Prison Break's 81 total hours aired on Monday. The only ones that didn't were the last six, which aired on Fridays in 2009. The 2017 revival aired on Tuesday at 9/8c.

See (who saw) how it all began: In the first couple seasons, Prison Break was one of those shows that Fox would premiere several weeks early to make up for the inevitable baseball preemptions. Prison Break premiered on 8/29/05 to a fairly impressive 10.51 million viewers and a 4.6/12 in adults 18-49. It dropped to a 3.9 in week two but bounced right back up to a 4.5 demo in week three. The start of the traditional regular season hurt the show a bit initially, but it would creep back into the low 4's for much of the rest of season 1.

The best of times: Season 1 was when the show was at its strongest, particularly the 11/28/05 fall finale which scored 12.18 million viewers and a 5.5/12 demo. That number stood more than a half point ahead of any other airing, and the show had its five highest ratings ever in the fall half of that first season. But although I'd always heard that season 1 was the only time when the show was really any good, the drops were not realized immediately. Season 2 was down less than 10% and still a fairly impressively-rated season.

The worst of times: Even season 3 did all right for Prison Break, with almost every single episode falling in the low 3's. But by early season 4, it was clear the show was on its way out. Season 4 premiered to a still passable 2.7 but it dropped all the way to a 2.1 just four weeks later and spent most of the rest of its fall run at either a 2.1 or 2.2.  Then came the move to Friday, where it premiered in April 2009 to just a 1.2 demo and got as low as a 0.9 on 5/8/09. It hit new raw lows in the revival eight years later, but overall that short fifth season was stronger on a historical-adjusted basis than what Prison Break had been doing at the end of its original run.

Then vs. now: Prison Break was never really the massive hit in season 1 that I always sort of thought it was, and the aforementioned fall 2005 number was probably the only time it really even showed promise of becoming that. But it really epitomized what people talk about when they talk about a show having a 'core audience.' Within each of the last three seasons, you could count on the show settling at about the same rating almost every single week; look at how small the difference is between the season low and high in season 3, for example. But as with most serialized dramas, that core got smaller and smaller each season, and its significant drops in the opening weeks of season 4 finally put it below the threshold of acceptability. It was probably done for even if it hadn't completely bombed in its spring 2009 move to Friday.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Summer 2005-06	Mon 8:00, Mon 9:00	4.16		3.4	5.5	detail
2	2006-07	Monday 8:00	3.78	-9%	3.3	4.2	detail
3	2007-08		Monday 8:00	3.16	-16%	2.9	3.4		detail
4	2008-09	Monday 9:00	1.95	-38%	0.9	2.7	detail
5	Spring 2017	Tuesday 9:00	0.96		0.7	1.5	detail	B+

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now17	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Summer 2005-06	103	hit(sum)	1.26		84	135	113	111
2	2006-07	100	solid	1.23	-2%	88	111	98	90
3	2007-08	96	marginal	1.17	-5%	88	103	100	94
4	2008-09	65	flop	0.79	-32%	30	90	90	40
5	Spring 2017	78	marginal	0.96		57	122	122	73
AVERAGE:		AVERAGE:	88	marginal
CAREER:		CAREER:	441	utility

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

The War of 18-49 Returns with All New Episodes!

Since December is a bit of a slow time in the TV season, I thought I'd help fill the gap and "order up" a few new midseason editions of The War of 18-49, my series that looks at the ratings history of veteran programs. There were a handful of eligible regular season shows that I either forgot about or didn't get around to last summer, and this seems like a good time to knock them out. The original plan was six "all new" posts and six "update" posts, in which I add the ratings for a recently completed season and do a brief ratings season-in-review. Sadly, I couldn't find enough info on one of those all new shows (King of the Hill) to really feel good about doing it, so there will only be five all new ones for now. But one for each network...!

Scheduling Five-Spot, WE 12/5/10 - The Biggest Loser, Archer/Lights Out, Body of Proof, Dexter, Chase

Here's your Five-Spot of TV scheduling news for the week ending December 5, 2010:

The Biggest Loser Moves to 9/8c - This might not be "news" for this week, more likely back when the listings came out, but the reality show aired at 9/8c on Tuesday this week and will the next two weeks (led into by game show Minute to Win It). The show has taken a beating against DWTS and Glee all season, but things finally turned around on Tuesday as it got away from both and posted a 2.9 demo, tying the season high set for its premiere. That's way up from recent numbers which have oft been south of 2.5.

#FringeFriday - Can it work?

The night that Fox released their midseason schedule, I did a big post on all of their moves in recent years that had led to the Monday to Thursday schedule, then at the end I threw in an offhand remark that I thought Fringe was dead on Friday night. I'll reiterate that I have loved this season and that I hope it isn't the case, but I thought I'd illuminate a little bit of the math I'm looking at and that this show will have to defy if it does indeed make it into another season.


The two issues here are What must Fringe rate? and What will Fringe rate? A recent Renew/Cancel index at TVByTheNumbers probably does as good a job with the first question as anyone could without knowing more of the money particulars, so I'll just briefly address that point and then move onto the other one, since I by no means "hesitate to predict future ratings." ;-)

Ratings Five-Spot, WE 11/28/10: DWTS, Skating with the Stars, Mike & Molly, Glee, Modern Family

Here's your TV Ratings Five-Spot for the week ending November 28, 2010:

Dancing with the Stars - The ABC competition reality program has had a very strong cycle throughout and ended on a particularly high note, with both the final Monday performance show and the two-hour Tuesday finale up 23% year-to-year. The 5.3 for the finale was the show's highest finale number since fall 2007. The year-to-year momentum will be tough to maintain this spring, since the fall cycle in 2009 was relatively weak, but it's certainly possible. Especially if the Lindsay Lohan rumors come to fruition.