V (ABC)
Sampling: The largest demo for a series premiere to date this season. 5.2 demo. That's right up there with regular episodes of House and Grey's Anatomy. Lots of things were written about its historical significance; largest premiere for an ABC drama since Private Practice in 2007. Largest for an 8:00 drama since Lost in 2004. A big, big start.
Retention: The dropoff was expected, and maybe even more than expected. At a 27% decline, it's the largest A18-49 week 2 fall for a drama this season, and second among all shows only to Community. (The 31% drop for Melrose below is in W18-34; Melrose fell "only" 23% in A18-49.) The drop is very much on par with the week 2 drop for NBC's 2007 remake of The Bionic Woman, which was 28% (5.7 -> 4.1)
Prognosis: There's almost nothing harder to predict than something that premieres huge and drops huge. If it stays at its week 2 3.8 demo, it's a big success for ABC, but that just doesn't seem likely to happen to me. Huge premiere + huge drop = borderline by the below system, and that's about right. Could really go any way, but when the drop is this big, that's what I focus on. I'm saying this finds a way to not get to season 2. We shall see.
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, Melrose Place, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)
If this is your first of my "First Two Weeks" posts, I encourage you to click the "new shows" label and scroll down to the bottom.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Demos Year to Year, Monday 11/9/09
DWTS (8-10pm vs. 8-9:30pm) -19%
(Castle vs. Boston Legal) +9%
(How I Met Your Mother vs. Big Bang Theory) -10%
(Accidentally on Purpose vs. HIMYM) -31%
2.5 Men -6%
(BBT vs. Worst Week) +68%
CSI: Miami +8%
HIMYM (8pm vs. 8:30pm) -14%
BBT (9:30pm vs. 8pm) +21%
(Heroes vs. Chuck) -4%
(Trauma vs. Heroes) -50%
(The Jay Leno Show vs. My Own Worst Enemy) -33%
Heroes (8pm vs. 9pm) -36%
(House vs. Terminator: SCC) +165%
(Lie to Me vs. Prison Break) +36%
(One Tree Hill vs. Gossip Girl) -13%
(Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill) -19%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -19%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -13%
(Castle vs. Boston Legal) +9%
(How I Met Your Mother vs. Big Bang Theory) -10%
(Accidentally on Purpose vs. HIMYM) -31%
2.5 Men -6%
(BBT vs. Worst Week) +68%
CSI: Miami +8%
HIMYM (8pm vs. 8:30pm) -14%
BBT (9:30pm vs. 8pm) +21%
(Heroes vs. Chuck) -4%
(Trauma vs. Heroes) -50%
(The Jay Leno Show vs. My Own Worst Enemy) -33%
Heroes (8pm vs. 9pm) -36%
(House vs. Terminator: SCC) +165%
(Lie to Me vs. Prison Break) +36%
(One Tree Hill vs. Gossip Girl) -13%
(Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill) -19%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -19%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -13%
Demos Year to Year, Sunday 11/8/09
A couple notes: AFHV aired abbreviated editions both last Sunday and on the year-ago evening, and both were close to 30 minutes long, but not exactly. CBS' football overrun on this pair of evenings was 20 minutes in 2009 and 26 minutes in 2008.
America's Funniest Home Videos (7:30pm) +5%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -14%
Desperate Housewives -25%
Brothers & Sisters -22%
60 Minutes -10%
The Amazing Race +3%
(Three Rivers vs. Cold Case) -42%
(Cold Case vs. The Unit) -35%
Cold Case (10pm vs. 9pm) -45%
(American Dad vs. The Simpsons (R)) -20%
(Family Guy 8pm vs. The Simpsons) -3%
(Seth & Alex's Almost Live Comedy Show vs. King of the Hill) +3%
Family Guy (9pm) -2%
(The Cleveland Show vs. American Dad) -3%
America's Funniest Home Videos (7:30pm) +5%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -14%
Desperate Housewives -25%
Brothers & Sisters -22%
60 Minutes -10%
The Amazing Race +3%
(Three Rivers vs. Cold Case) -42%
(Cold Case vs. The Unit) -35%
Cold Case (10pm vs. 9pm) -45%
(American Dad vs. The Simpsons (R)) -20%
(Family Guy 8pm vs. The Simpsons) -3%
(Seth & Alex's Almost Live Comedy Show vs. King of the Hill) +3%
Family Guy (9pm) -2%
(The Cleveland Show vs. American Dad) -3%
Monday, November 9, 2009
Demos Year to Year, Friday 11/6/09
Lots of big numbers in both directions on this evening. Law & Order seems to be making a real impact on this night.
(Supernanny vs. Wife Swap) -24%
(Ugly Betty vs. Supernanny) -37%
20/20 +27%
Supernanny (8pm vs. 9pm) -32%
Ghost Whisperer -32%
(Medium vs. NCIS (R)) -21%
Numb3rs -33%
(House (R) vs. 5th Grader) -25%
(Bones (R) vs. Don't Forget the Lyrics!) -25%
(Law & Order 8pm vs. Deal or No Deal) +64%
(Law & Order 9pm vs. Crusoe) +80%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Lipstick Jungle) even
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +71%
America's Next Top Model (R) -17%
(Supernanny vs. Wife Swap) -24%
(Ugly Betty vs. Supernanny) -37%
20/20 +27%
Supernanny (8pm vs. 9pm) -32%
Ghost Whisperer -32%
(Medium vs. NCIS (R)) -21%
Numb3rs -33%
(House (R) vs. 5th Grader) -25%
(Bones (R) vs. Don't Forget the Lyrics!) -25%
(Law & Order 8pm vs. Deal or No Deal) +64%
(Law & Order 9pm vs. Crusoe) +80%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Lipstick Jungle) even
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +71%
America's Next Top Model (R) -17%
Friday, November 6, 2009
Demos Year to Year, Thursday 10/5/09
No more World Series, no more elections, so let's dig into a much less sloppy week of year-to-year comparisons!
(Flashforward vs. Ugly Betty) -4%
Grey's Anatomy -15%
(Private Practice vs. Life on Mars) +17%
Survivor -3%
CSI -31%
(The Mentalist vs. Eleventh Hour) +16%
(Bones vs. Kitchen Nightmares 8pm) +30%
(Fringe vs. Kitchen Nightmares 9pm) -23%
(Community vs. My Name is Earl) -12%
(Parks & Recreation vs. Kath & Kim) -8%
The Office -5%
30 Rock -23%
(The Jay Leno Show vs. ER) -50%
(The Vampire Diaries vs. Smallville) even
Supernatural -14%
(Flashforward vs. Ugly Betty) -4%
Grey's Anatomy -15%
(Private Practice vs. Life on Mars) +17%
Survivor -3%
CSI -31%
(The Mentalist vs. Eleventh Hour) +16%
(Bones vs. Kitchen Nightmares 8pm) +30%
(Fringe vs. Kitchen Nightmares 9pm) -23%
(Community vs. My Name is Earl) -12%
(Parks & Recreation vs. Kath & Kim) -8%
The Office -5%
30 Rock -23%
(The Jay Leno Show vs. ER) -50%
(The Vampire Diaries vs. Smallville) even
Supernatural -14%
November Sweeps 2009 Week One, Recap
First a few different-day comparisons between 2009 and 2008.
Private Practice (Th vs. W) +16%
Ugly Betty (F vs. Th) -58%
Law & Order (F vs. W) -36%
Smallville (F vs. Th) -35%
Should be a lot more of these next week, as the World Series this year and election last year REALLY reduced the number of available comparisons.
Anyway, laziness is taking over this year and I'm not doing all those huge lists by network and by genre and by timeslot. I might do something like that at the end of sweeps but I don't think there's a whole lot of education to be gleaned from doing it every week. What I will do are a few top 5 lists.
First, the TOP 5 TIMESLOT GAINERS
1. Dateline vs. Crusoe (NBC, Friday 9pm) +100%
2. Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game (CW, Friday 8pm) +83%
3. The Big Bang Theory vs. Gary Unmarried (R) (CBS, Monday 9:30pm) +81%
4. Law & Order vs. Deal or No Deal (NBC, Friday 8pm) +56%
5. Private Practice vs. Life on Mars (ABC, Thursday 10pm) +38%
A couple things to note here... first, Friday in 2008 was Halloween night, so numbers were depressed relative to the norm. But the real quirk here is that shows like Smallville and L&O are among the biggest show decliners but have made some of the heftiest timeslot improvements. They've been brought in to help their nights, and they've succeeded, but they've certainly taken one for the team to do it.
TOP 5 TIMESLOT LOSERS
1. The Jay Leno Show vs. SNL Presidential Bash (NBC, Monday 10pm) -78%
2. Trauma vs. SNL Presidential Bash (NBC, Monday 9pm) -67%
3. The Jay Leno Show vs. ER (NBC, Thursday 10pm) -56%
4. Hank/The Middle vs. DWTS Results (ABC, Wednesday 8pm) -52%
t-5. Three Rivers vs. Cold Case (CBS, Sunday 9pm) -38%
t-5. Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill (CW, Monday 9pm) -38%
The election is responsible for three of the huge numbers in the top 4, the two Presidential Bash hours and the Hank/Middle declines, which are a result of DWTS results being shipped to Wednesday. We'll see more normal results next week, but there will still be a lot of Leno vs. SVU and Leno vs. ER, I'm predicting.
TOP 5 SHOW LOSERS
1. Ugly Betty (F vs. Th) -58%
2. Gossip Girl (M9pm vs. M8pm) -38%
3. Law & Order (F vs. W) -36%
t-4. Smallville (F vs. Th) -35%
t-4. Cold Case (Su10pm vs. Su9pm) -35%
I'm not even doing a "top 5 show gainers" because there aren't 5 of them. Maybe next week. But I thought this list was notable because of a couple points. Moving to Friday hurts shows, even if those shows still make big improvements in their timeslots year-to-year. The three veterans to move to Friday are all on the list. Cold Case, which headed to Sunday at 10, probably an even worse death sentence than Friday on CBS, also makes the list. And then there's Gossip Girl, which swapped places with One Tree Hill, and frankly it's hurt both shows a ton. (GG more, but OTH is down 31% itself)
One more list: a complete roster of the same show, same timeslot comparisons. AKA the "no excuses list." :-P May as well list 'em all, because especially with Leno there aren't a whole lot.
SAME SHOW, SAME TIMESLOT
Amazing Race +14%
Old Christine +5%
CSI: Miami even
20/20 even
Criminal Minds -3%
Brothers & Sisters -3%
2.5 Men -4%
Gary Unmarried -5%
Supernatural -7%
Ghost Whisperer -9%
Grey's Anatomy -9%
Survivor -10%
The Office -13%
Desperate Housewives -14%
CSI: NY -15%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -15%
America's Next Top Model -15%
60 Minutes -19%
30 Rock -24%
Numb3rs -26%
90210 -29%
CSI -29%
Private Practice (Th vs. W) +16%
Ugly Betty (F vs. Th) -58%
Law & Order (F vs. W) -36%
Smallville (F vs. Th) -35%
Should be a lot more of these next week, as the World Series this year and election last year REALLY reduced the number of available comparisons.
Anyway, laziness is taking over this year and I'm not doing all those huge lists by network and by genre and by timeslot. I might do something like that at the end of sweeps but I don't think there's a whole lot of education to be gleaned from doing it every week. What I will do are a few top 5 lists.
First, the TOP 5 TIMESLOT GAINERS
1. Dateline vs. Crusoe (NBC, Friday 9pm) +100%
2. Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game (CW, Friday 8pm) +83%
3. The Big Bang Theory vs. Gary Unmarried (R) (CBS, Monday 9:30pm) +81%
4. Law & Order vs. Deal or No Deal (NBC, Friday 8pm) +56%
5. Private Practice vs. Life on Mars (ABC, Thursday 10pm) +38%
A couple things to note here... first, Friday in 2008 was Halloween night, so numbers were depressed relative to the norm. But the real quirk here is that shows like Smallville and L&O are among the biggest show decliners but have made some of the heftiest timeslot improvements. They've been brought in to help their nights, and they've succeeded, but they've certainly taken one for the team to do it.
TOP 5 TIMESLOT LOSERS
1. The Jay Leno Show vs. SNL Presidential Bash (NBC, Monday 10pm) -78%
2. Trauma vs. SNL Presidential Bash (NBC, Monday 9pm) -67%
3. The Jay Leno Show vs. ER (NBC, Thursday 10pm) -56%
4. Hank/The Middle vs. DWTS Results (ABC, Wednesday 8pm) -52%
t-5. Three Rivers vs. Cold Case (CBS, Sunday 9pm) -38%
t-5. Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill (CW, Monday 9pm) -38%
The election is responsible for three of the huge numbers in the top 4, the two Presidential Bash hours and the Hank/Middle declines, which are a result of DWTS results being shipped to Wednesday. We'll see more normal results next week, but there will still be a lot of Leno vs. SVU and Leno vs. ER, I'm predicting.
TOP 5 SHOW LOSERS
1. Ugly Betty (F vs. Th) -58%
2. Gossip Girl (M9pm vs. M8pm) -38%
3. Law & Order (F vs. W) -36%
t-4. Smallville (F vs. Th) -35%
t-4. Cold Case (Su10pm vs. Su9pm) -35%
I'm not even doing a "top 5 show gainers" because there aren't 5 of them. Maybe next week. But I thought this list was notable because of a couple points. Moving to Friday hurts shows, even if those shows still make big improvements in their timeslots year-to-year. The three veterans to move to Friday are all on the list. Cold Case, which headed to Sunday at 10, probably an even worse death sentence than Friday on CBS, also makes the list. And then there's Gossip Girl, which swapped places with One Tree Hill, and frankly it's hurt both shows a ton. (GG more, but OTH is down 31% itself)
One more list: a complete roster of the same show, same timeslot comparisons. AKA the "no excuses list." :-P May as well list 'em all, because especially with Leno there aren't a whole lot.
SAME SHOW, SAME TIMESLOT
Amazing Race +14%
Old Christine +5%
CSI: Miami even
20/20 even
Criminal Minds -3%
Brothers & Sisters -3%
2.5 Men -4%
Gary Unmarried -5%
Supernatural -7%
Ghost Whisperer -9%
Grey's Anatomy -9%
Survivor -10%
The Office -13%
Desperate Housewives -14%
CSI: NY -15%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -15%
America's Next Top Model -15%
60 Minutes -19%
30 Rock -24%
Numb3rs -26%
90210 -29%
CSI -29%
Demos Year to Year, 11/3/09 & 11/4/09
Lots of election coverage on Tuesday night so I'm including only the CW's comparisons for Tuesday:
90210 -29%
(Melrose Place vs. Privileged) -11%
Now Wednesday (with Fox out due to baseball):
(Hank/The Middle vs. DWTS Results) -52%
(Modern Family/Cougar Town vs. Private Practice) +3%
(Eastwick vs. Dirty Sexy Money) -25%
Old Christine +5%
Gary Unmarried -5%
Criminal Minds -3%
CSI: NY -15%
(Mercy vs. Knight Rider) +6%
(Law & Order: SVU vs. Life) +20%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Law & Order) -36%
America's Next Top Model -15%
(Vampire Diaries (R) vs. Stylista) -22%
90210 -29%
(Melrose Place vs. Privileged) -11%
Now Wednesday (with Fox out due to baseball):
(Hank/The Middle vs. DWTS Results) -52%
(Modern Family/Cougar Town vs. Private Practice) +3%
(Eastwick vs. Dirty Sexy Money) -25%
Old Christine +5%
Gary Unmarried -5%
Criminal Minds -3%
CSI: NY -15%
(Mercy vs. Knight Rider) +6%
(Law & Order: SVU vs. Life) +20%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Law & Order) -36%
America's Next Top Model -15%
(Vampire Diaries (R) vs. Stylista) -22%
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Demos Year to Year, Monday 11/2/09
DWTS (8-10 vs. 8-9:30) -13%
(Castle vs. Boston Legal) +33%
(HIMYM vs. BBT) -5%
(AOP vs. HIMYM) -24%
2.5 Men -4%
(BBT vs. Gary Unmarried (R)) +81%
CSI: Miami even
BBT (9:30pm vs. 8pm) +27%
(Heroes vs. Deal or No Deal) +25%
(Trauma vs. SNL Presidential Bash 9-10pm) -67%
(Jay Leno Show vs. SNL Presidential Bash 10-11pm) -78%
(One Tree Hill vs. Gossip Girl 8pm) -31%
(Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill 9pm) -38%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -31%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -38%
(Castle vs. Boston Legal) +33%
(HIMYM vs. BBT) -5%
(AOP vs. HIMYM) -24%
2.5 Men -4%
(BBT vs. Gary Unmarried (R)) +81%
CSI: Miami even
BBT (9:30pm vs. 8pm) +27%
(Heroes vs. Deal or No Deal) +25%
(Trauma vs. SNL Presidential Bash 9-10pm) -67%
(Jay Leno Show vs. SNL Presidential Bash 10-11pm) -78%
(One Tree Hill vs. Gossip Girl 8pm) -31%
(Gossip Girl vs. One Tree Hill 9pm) -38%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -31%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -38%
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Demos Year to Year, Sunday 11/1/09
Not including Fox and NBC due to very different programming. Fox had World Series this year, animation last year. NBC had National Treasure this year, football last year.
AFHV (30 mins. vs. year-ago 60 mins) -5%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -15%
Desperate Housewives -14%
Brothers & Sisters -3%
60 Minutes -19%
Amazing Race +14%
(Three Rivers vs. Cold Case) -38%
(Cold Case vs. The Unit) -26%
Cold Case (10pm vs. 9pm) -35%
AFHV (30 mins. vs. year-ago 60 mins) -5%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -15%
Desperate Housewives -14%
Brothers & Sisters -3%
60 Minutes -19%
Amazing Race +14%
(Three Rivers vs. Cold Case) -38%
(Cold Case vs. The Unit) -26%
Cold Case (10pm vs. 9pm) -35%
Demos Year to Year, Friday 10/30/09
Worth noting: the year-ago evening was Halloween!
(Supernanny vs. Wife Swap) +18%
(Ugly Betty vs. Supernanny) -15%
20/20 even
(Supernanny) even
Ghost Whisperer -9%
(Medium vs. NCIS repeat) -14%
Numb3rs -26%
(House (R) vs. 5th Grader/Lyrics) even
(Law & Order vs. Deal or No Deal) +56%
(Dateline vs. Crusoe) +100%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Lipstick Jungle) +20%
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +83%
America's Next Top Model (R) even
(Supernanny vs. Wife Swap) +18%
(Ugly Betty vs. Supernanny) -15%
20/20 even
(Supernanny) even
Ghost Whisperer -9%
(Medium vs. NCIS repeat) -14%
Numb3rs -26%
(House (R) vs. 5th Grader/Lyrics) even
(Law & Order vs. Deal or No Deal) +56%
(Dateline vs. Crusoe) +100%
(Jay Leno Show vs. Lipstick Jungle) +20%
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +83%
America's Next Top Model (R) even
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