Tuesday, June 26, 2018

A18-49+ Update: The New Shows in 2017-18

Here's a look at the new scripted series on the big four in 2017-18:

YearTotFlopRenewSolidHitBig Hit

YearFlopRenewSolidHitBig Hit


Big Hits: Young Sheldon (202), The Good Doctor (163), 9-1-1 (151)
Solids: The Orville (114), Splitting Up Together (112)
Sub-solid renewals: Station 19 (96), The Resident (93), Good Girls (93), SEAL Team (92), The Gifted (92), S.W.A.T. (87), A.P. Bio (67), Instinct (60), For the People (58)

After a lot of depth in the 2016-17 class, "top-heavy" was the word for the class of 2017-18. This was the first year since 2004-05 that three shows got over the 150 big hit threshold, and Young Sheldon was the era's first comedy to qualify as a megahit with over 200. But only two other shows broke the league average; five solid shows was the lowest total in five years. (Ghosted fell below the mark after its first week of summer episodes.) The good news is that it wasn't very "bottom-heavy"; only 11 shows went below 70. For now, that is the lowest total number in the era, though Me, Myself and I will probably become #12 in next year's update which will include its summer burn-offs.

While Law and Order True Crime, Ghosted and Champions haven't been officially decided as of my departing on vacation, there are still 14 renewals in the clubhouse. Even without any of those three, that means it's a fourth consecutive year in which at least 40% of scripted newbies get renewed; it happened just once in the previous 13 years. If two of those three somehow make it, that would be the first season in the era that the big four broke 50%.

Career A18-49+ Update:

Another way of assessing new show classes is to grade them based on how they pan out in Career A18-49+. Here's the update to that pursuit with 2017-18 numbers. The changes based on 2017-18 numbers are included in parentheses.

2005-064083331 (+1)
2009-10269533 (+2)1 (+1)
2010-1134442 (+1)00
2011-1240853 (+1)00
2013-143974 (+3)000
2014-15389 (+2)1100
2015-16372 (+2)0000
2016-17371 (+1)0000

2001-02: Still extinct.

2002-03: Still extinct.

2003-04: NCIS keeps rolling well past the icon threshold, but the career labeling is resolved now for this class.

2004-05: American Dad! continues its very slow trek toward icon on cable...

2005-06: Criminal Minds made it to icon. I'm putting everything in red for this class since there was no word about a Prison Break revival for 2018-19, but it could still possibly happen.

2006-07: Still extinct.

2007-08: The Big Bang Theory is still rolling well past the icon threshold, and passed CSI to become #2 on the career list. But labeling is resolved.

2008-09: Still extinct.

2009-10: A busy year for the class of 2009-10 as Modern Family went past the icon mark and both NCIS: Los Angeles and (thanks Roseanne!) The Middle became stars. Now NCIS: LA begins a very long, 471-point trek toward icon which leaves one piece of labeling unresolved.

2010-11: Hawaii Five-0 became a tentpole, and will pass Mike & Molly for the highest career total of the class next season. Bob's Burgers and maybe Blue Bloods (needs 80) will join the tentpole club next year, making it potentially the first four-tentpole class since 2004-05.

2011-12: Though it failed in the ratings, the rebooted Once Upon a Time still did enough to become the third tentpole of the 2011-12 class. The revival of Last Man Standing gave new life to a nearly extinct 2011-12 class, and that show will get over the staple line next year. It will become the first six-staple class since 2004-05.

2012-13: Nothing happened this year, but Chicago Fire should cruise past the tentpole threshold in 2018-19. Elementary is getting a seventh season, but even that may not be enough to get this class a second staple. Nashville is ending on cable, well shy of the staple mark.

2013-14: Mom, The Blacklist and Chicago PD all joined the staple club, and Mom should join The Goldbergs as the first two tentpoles of the class next season. Agents of SHIELD (likely headed to summer) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (rescued by NBC) are still alive but will likely need multiple seasons to get to staple territory.

2014-15: Empire came up just two points shy of the star mark in season four and will get there next season. Fresh Off the Boat and The Last Man on Earth both got to utility, and Madam Secretary's renewal ensures it will become utility #10 for the class next season (tying the 2004-05 record). How to Get Away with Murder, Black-ish and NCIS: New Orleans all appear to be headed for staple territory next season.

2015-16: Life in Pieces and Chicago Med became the first two utility players of the class. Superstore and Blindspot are headed there next year. But the cancellations of Lucifer, Code Black and Quantico mean this will end up looking like a fairly thin class.

2016-17: This Is Us sailed past the utility mark and will sail past the staple mark next year (needing a 234 to get to tentpole in three years). Star and American Housewife should get to utility next season. Speechless, Bull, Lethal Weapon and The Good Place are all possible next year, but Speechless and Bull will both be enduring major timeslot downgrades. Worth noting that this looked like a class with at least some chance of tying/setting the record with 10 utility players at this time last year, but a slew of sophomore cancellations (most notably Kevin Can Wait) have left that almost out of the question; Timeless represents the last chance just for 10 total possibilities to even make it to season three.

2017-18: Young Sheldon will clearly become a utility next year, while The Good Doctor and 9-1-1 will need to hold up well in season two. It's gonna be awhile for everyone else, and it's possible nobody beyond those three gets there till season four.

Here's the now updated A18-49+ New Shows post.

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