Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Renewology Swings of the Week: Timeless, The Great Indoors, Rosewood, Jane the Virgin

It's time for another edition of Renewology Swings of the Week. Which shows had the best and worst weeks in terms of Renewology odds? These numbers cover Week 9 of the 2016-17 season (November 14-20).

Please note that starting with this week, I've removed all "black" shows (whose fates are already decided) from these rankings. The numbers can still be used as a reference point but I think it's a bit disingenuous to put any stock in week-to-week movements when the status is already decided.

Biggest R% Gainers:

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend0.20.00.30+0.0654%+7%
Hawaii Five-01.3-0.11.27+0.0182%+7%
The Odd Couple1.00.01.07+0.0248%+6%
Pure Genius0.90.01.11+0.0734%+5%
Fresh Off the Boat1.3+0.21.08+0.0779%+4%

Timeless: Renewology still has a very tough time making up its mind about Timeless, a show that many have pretty much dismissed as dunzo. The good news with this show is that we should get some clarity when it has to air alongside The Celebrity Apprentice in January. We also might see the NBC targets come up a bit during the winter period, if the network again holds up better during The Voice's hiatus. The interesting question with this show is whether the formula is too kind to it just because it's airing at 10/9c. I will point out that despite having a good lead-in, it still grows pretty big in delayed viewing, much like The Blacklist and Blindspot did in their (much higher-rated) runs in this slot. So there is at least some audience that is not just leaving it on after The Voice. And we've seen Blindspot actually grow much less in Live+7 since its move to 8:00. So even with what seems like a "good" timeslot, simply being at 10/9c might be holding Timeless' Live+SD ratings back a bit.

Biggest R% Decliners:

Jane the Virgin0.3-0.10.27-0.1083%-13%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine0.90.00.91-0.1377%-7%
The Great Indoors1.4-0.31.07-0.1241%-7%
2 Broke Girls1.3-0.11.27-0.0480%-6%
The Real O'Neals1.1+0.30.95+0.1050%-5%
The Exorcist0.60.00.82+0.1118%-5%
Criminal Minds1.4+0.11.34+0.1379%-4%
Scream Queens0.60.00.68-0.0511%-4%

The Great Indoors: Week four was easily the worst point of The Great Indoors' run yet, with just a 1.4 rating out of a 3.1 from The Big Bang Theory. Of the four TGI snapshots, the first two both suggested a show that was going to be a little below the bubble. The rise to 1.7 in week three was more of a true bubble (though we still had it slightly below 50%). And this suggested more of a long-shot... it'd be in the low-30s if this were the only point considered. It was a bad result but I still wouldn't write the show off completely just yet; it may end up following the Life in Pieces track and doing much better after the new year. There's actually a pretty logical reason for why something like that would happen, which is that Big Bang is a de facto lead-in for football (as it starts right as Big Bang is ending).

Rosewood: After its second straight 0.7, Rosewood dipped below the 50% threshold for the first time since its 0.7 season premiere. That said, 44% is still a very real chance. Overall the show seems not too dissimilar to what Sleepy Hollow looked like at around this point last season. It will have to hold up well on Friday, but if it can actually get 0.6's and 0.7's, that won't really be any different from the 0.7's and 0.8's (and even a 0.6) that Sleepy Hollow had on the night when it got renewed last year.

Jane the Virgin: Just a quick mention here since it was the only show to drop double digits this week, albeit from 96% to a still-pretty-safe 83%. A 0.3 is not a very good look for the show (though it was a 0.34 un-rounded), and if it has a bunch more 0.3's it may start to look more marginal in this formula. But it still seems like the strongest of the CBS Studios crop right now, so it's hard to see it getting into actual trouble.

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