Thursday, March 31, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: Rush Hour

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Rush Hour (NEW!)

Timeslot OccupantsThursday Night Football Elementary
Avg Orig Avg
2.42 1.04 5.94 5.39 1.04 1.13

In a Nutshell: After nearly four years of Elementary in the Thursday 10/9c hour, CBS is finally giving something else a chance in its timeslot: the action dramedy Rush Hour, based on the series of films starring Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker.

Best Case: The timeslot is setting up quite nicely for Rush Hour, with The Catch underwhelming on premiere night and NBC introducing another new series shortly in Game of Silence. It's actually pretty compatible with the comedy block that precedes it. It gets a nice premiere pop due to fans of the movies, and is able to retain its whole 2 Broke Girls lead-in going forward. 1.70.

Worst Case: It feels like the Battle Creek of this season, thrown on late in the season and tonally a bit off of what the CBS base audience is looking for. It was probably not a good idea to go with cheap imitations of Chan and Tucker's characters, as it might actually alienate fans of the movies rather than attract them. It starts fractional and ends up with a Battle Creek-esque Plus. 0.60.

Likeliest: It may be a Battle Creek-esque situation, but it shouldn't bomb as hard as that show simply for timeslot reasons; airing after 2 Broke Girls on Thursday will be far better than following The Good Wife in Sunday Siberia. Still, I think it would've shown up earlier in the season if CBS believed. It starts a little better than Elementary's numbers in the hour but settles below them, and it's not like Elementary's first-run numbers were begging for renewal anyway. 0.91. (Again, these are just for the episodes aired within the regular season, as this show will continue for about a month afterward.)

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