Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: Crowded

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Crowded (NEW!)

Timeslot OccupantsSunday Night Football
Avg Orig Avg
5.44 1.40 7.72 6.52

In a Nutshell: The second half of NBC's post-Little Big Shots comedy hour is the newbie Crowded, a multi-cam starring Rules of Engagement alum Patrick Warburton and iCarly star Miranda Cosgrove. Like the other Sunday shows, it gets a post-The Voice preview (two episodes starting at 10/9c tonight), then heads to Sunday 9:30 beyond that.

Best Case: NBC increasingly looks like the new CBS, and one benefit of having that solid base audience is that you can get decent ratings with even a fairly traditional/generic concept like this one. Its best-case scenario probably involves it getting switched with The Carmichael Show and airing at 9/8c, which could happen quickly if the show previews very well tonight. (That would probably mean matching or beating Superstore's numbers from its preview in the fall.) Leading off the hour on Sunday, it does a few tenths better than Carmichael has in the 9/8c slot. 1.80.

Worst Case: The Carmichael Show has done somewhat OK with a traditional sitcom setup because it actually has something topical to say. This show is just too retro to attract much of an audience in 2016. It stays at 9:30 and drops about 40% from Carmichael, which makes it a clear weak link in the lineup. 0.81.

Likeliest: My guess is that NBC likes Carmichael enough to keep it at 9/8c unless Crowded makes a really compelling case to supplant it. I don't think Crowded will do too badly, but I don't see it being enough of a slam dunk. It'll drop about as much after Carmichael as the 9:30 edition did last week, so you can make the argument it's the stronger of the two, but NBC still keeps the lineup as is. Its average gets a boost from two post-Voice eps tonight, and averages just below 1.0 on Sunday for a 1.05 total. NBC may still be comedy-starved enough to renew if it can hold the 1.0 late in the season, but I would guess it loses out to Carmichael.

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