Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Best Case/Worst Case: Star

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Wednesdays at 9:00 on Fox

Lead-in: Lethal Weapon (1.78 A18-49 this year)

This Year's Timeslot Occupants:
Empire (3.27 A18-49)

In a Nutshell: Star is the latest TV step for Lee Daniels after his megahit Empire exploded onto the scene in 2015. The drama, about a girl group coming up in the music industry, previewed with a 2.2 rating out of the Empire fall finale (2.7) back on December 14, and will assume Empire's regular Wednesday 9/8c perch during that show's hiatus.

Best Case: It's easy to underestimate how tough it is nowadays to actually get a 2.2, and it's not like it bled some massive chunk of its lead-in. It did well enough to demonstrate that there was legit interest in the concept, and it'll still be there even with a Lethal Weapon lead-in. It ekes past a 2.0 tonight and stays in the high-1's throughout the run. 1.95.

Worst Case: It was sampled, but it was rejected. There was shockingly little DVR interest; it gained only 0.6 points in +7, which is a crazy low percentage gain for a drama. It might muster up a low-1 tonight but it will be fractional beyond that, and a clear failure by the end of the run. 0.85 (heavily inflated by the December preview).

Likeliest: If it could get a 2.2, even in its best possible situation, it should be able to do fine in a worse situation. The lack of DVR sampling is interesting, but Empire is a fairly low percentage gainer compared to most dramas as well. Star starts in the vicinity of 1.6 tonight and slowly drifts downward over the course of the winter, with some low-1's at the end but never really threatening to drop below 1. 1.46, including the December preview. It would definitely get a season two with these ratings, but it may not "feel" great at the end of the run with a long limited series hiatus looming.

Match Game (1.07 A18-49, 73 A18-49+ last year)

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