Friday, January 21, 2011

First Two Weeks, Off the Map


ABC's Off the Map premiered to a fairly weak 2.3 demo, but that was probably screwed up a bit by the scheduling wackiness surrounding President Obama's address of the shooting in Tucson. That pushed the new Modern Family to 9:20 and left the Off the Map lead-in for most of the country as a partial (ten-minute) rerun of Modern Family. Still, those ten minutes of Modern did average a 3.4 demo, certainly higher than an original Cougar Town would've gotten in those last ten minutes, so read into it what you will.

In a statistical oddity that nobody outside of my household probably cares about, Off the Map became the third show this season to premiere with exactly a 2.3 demo and then drop to exactly a 2.1 demo in week two (joining Detroit 1-8-7 and Chase). Throw in last year's Mercy and it's the fourth in two years! As in all those other cases, that means a 9% drop, well better than average among new shows.

With three recent exact precedents, this would seem easy to predict. But it isn't necessarily a no-brainer, because 9% is a pretty small drop, and at a 2.1 demo Off the Map would have a good shot at a renewal. After all, ABC's airing a full Tuesday night of dramas that can't hit that mark. All three of the previous 2.3 -> 2.1 shows were fall efforts that got an extension beyond the initial 13-episode order but no season 2 (well, at least I'm assuming Chase and Detroit won't, but that seems pretty safe). That's the direction I'd have to lean with Off the Map, except that it's a midseason show and that's not an option. I'm torn, especially considering how weak all of ABC's other new dramas are and the chance upcoming lead-in Mr. Sunshine will do well, but I'll lean slightly toward no season 2. A 2.3 is just a bit too low of a starting point.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4

Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12% 

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats, Running Wilde (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Off the Map (2 points), The Whole Truth (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

1 comment:

Igwell said...

I'll guess it gets a short order next season with a little retooling, because it fits ABC's identity better than the other dramas on the bubble.

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