Thursday, January 20, 2011

First Two Weeks, The Cape

Bureaucratic note: I'm gonna count "previews" as part of the "first two weeks" only if they occur within two weeks before the official timeslot premiere. It seems fair to use something like The Cape's Sunday premiere or Outlaw's post-Got Talent premiere but using the Perfect Couples ep that was randomly placed after The Sing-Off a month before the premiere seems hinky. We'll see how that goes. It's my damn blog, so I reserve the right to change that at any time and for any reason ever.


The Cape had a special two-hour Sunday premiere and pulled a 2.6 demo. Certainly could've been worse, and obviously a 2.6 for an NBC drama is a great number these days, but it's a premiere; that means it's not promising even if it takes a fairly normal week two drop.

And it took much more than a fairly normal week two drop, plunging 31% to a 1.8 demo in its Monday debut eight days later. That number leaves it one tick behind the very modest fall finale number for previous timeslot occupant The Event (1.9) and already as the weak link in NBC's midseason Monday lineup (trailing Chuck's 2.0 and Harry's Law's 2.2).

So decimated is NBC's drama situation (made even worse by the recent Law & Order: Los Angeles problems) that if The Cape holds its 1.8 demo, the net would probably actually have a pretty tough decision with this show, and they might bring it back. The problem is I don't even feel good about it holding that number. It's hard to when it's coming off a 31% drop. It may soon no longer be the A18-49 weak link on NBC Mondays, but that will be faint praise if Harry's Law takes a big dip in subsequent weeks. One and done.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2

Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5

Running Wilde 2.4
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12% 

The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape (2 points), The Whole Truth, Running Wilde (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)

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