Tuesday, March 23, 2010

First Two Weeks, Sons of Tucson

Sons of Tucson (Fox)

Sampling: The premiere of Sons of Tucson made it look like yet another Fox live-action comedy flop; it pulled a mere 2.1 demo. That's bad, and made even worse by the fact that it led out of an original Family Guy's 3.5 demo. If that's not dead on arrival, it's close.

Retention: In week 2, there was merely a 10% drop, which is an above-average performance. But it doesn't make up for how bad the premiere was. And with an original Family Guy providing a strong lead-in, it would be tough to expect the retention to get all that much worse; losing 40% of that demo in one half-hour is already anemic.

Prognosis: The prognosis is not good. This is another case where the bad premiere overrides the above-average retention, and that'll be something to consider when I evaluate my system of prognosticating based on two weeks. Sons may make its way up to "borderline" using my system (and in fact, it'd already be there if I rounded to tenths of a percent for retention), but it's worse than borderline. Starting with a 2.1 in that half-hour is a situation where, barring a week 2 miracle, the prognosis can be made in the First One Week. Look for this to be another one-and-done Fox live-action comedy.

The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8

Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6

The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%

Sons of Tucson -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers, Life Unexpected, Past Life, Sons of Tucson (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

Shows already renewed for 2010-11 are greened, shows already axed are redded, the new show this entry is in blue. If this is your first of these First Two Weeks post, click the "new shows" label and head down to the bottom for more on the method behind this madness.

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