Tuesday, October 6, 2009

First Two Weeks, Hank and The Middle

Hank (ABC)
Sampling: Not good. A 2.1 demo means this thing was only a couple ticks ahead of its weak comedy competition Old Christine, and that's on series premiere week.
Retention: Even worse. Christine leaves it in the dust as Hank tumbles 24% to a 1.6 demo.
Prognosis: Preliminarily, this looks like the weakest link on a weakening ABC comedy Wednesday. Not gonna get extended.

The Middle (ABC)
Sampling: A rather tepid 2.6 demo, but it's a number that looks better when you consider what it had for a lead-in. (see above)
Retention: A 19% drop is also rather tepid.
Prognosis: It could stay in play as long as it continues to build big-time on Hank, but right now other than its .5 leaps in the demo out of Hank, there's nothing else compelling that suggests this will be around. I'm on the fence.

The Vampire Diaries (6.3)
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0

Melrose Place (3.9)
Community 3.8
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0

The Forgotten 2.6
The Middle 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
The Beautiful Life: TBL (1.8)
Brothers 1.0

The Good Wife +3%
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%

Modern Family -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%

Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Hank -24%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - Modern Family, The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - Mercy
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, Melrose Place, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, The Middle (3 points), The Forgotten, Brothers, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

My chart has 9 out of 19 new shows thus far in the green zones. Percentage-wise, that's more than should make it. Three Rivers will probably put that at 9 of 20. However, I think the only one of the "safe" shows that's in any serious danger at this juncture is Accidentally on Purpose. And I don't feel really good about any of the not-safe shows, so it's not a terrible system thus far, even if the percentages are a bit high. It's just so happened that quite a lot of shows have barely qualified, with very good showings in one category and OK showings in another.

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