The Adults 18-34 Primer, Part 3: A True Power Rankings Using 18-34 Ratings

In the first two parts of the adults 18-34 primer, we looked at the fundamentals of that demographic's audience, then at how some of the biggest shows skewed if we were using that demo rather than 18-49.

In this third and final part, we will try unifying adults 18-49 and adults 18-34 ratings into one metric. There seems to be some potential for added value in even the crudest of combinations of these ratings, as seen in the linear correlations from part one.

The Adults 18-34 Primer, Part 2: Which Shows Skew 18-34?

Last time, the adults 18-34 primer began by introducing the 18-34 audience, from its potential importance in ratings analysis to how often it watches TV in the broadest senses compared to the larger 18-49 demo. This time, the focus shifts to what people really care about: individual shows!

There are really two ways of incorporating a new rating into the conversation. We can just stay on the paradigm we all know pretty well (18-49 ratings) and use 18-34 to color around it, or we can dive right in with a formula that combines them into one all-new, grand unified metric. I think the first approach is more practical, more useful as a starting point, and (with how relatively little we have to go on) probably more mathematically sound for now. So that's what this post will try to accomplish. In the last post, we'll take an unscientific stab at the other approach.

This post examines a selection of broadcast shows using their 18-34 ratings as a percentage of their 18-49 ratings (what we called "34/49" in the first post). Basically, the higher a show is listed in this article, the more the 18-34 might "help" what we think of as its 18-49 ratings situation. It shouldn't be looked at as a hierarchy of strength on its own. You can skew heavily toward 18-34 by percentage but still have weak overall volume. Think of it not as a "How strong is this show?" metric, but a "How much might 18-34 ratings help this show?" metric.

The Adults 18-34 Primer, Part 1: Fundamentals of 18-34 Ratings

Coverage of TV ratings has evolved a lot. If you look back at the trade coverage circa 2000, household ratings were the day-to-day currency of choice, even though the industry had changed to a young demo focus decades earlier. Demos soon became a part of the picture, but even just a few years ago, almost all media seemingly weighted total viewership and adults 18-49 ratings pretty much equally. Now, at least in the more advanced circles, it's almost solely an 18-49 world. We know that the correlation with advertising money is massively stronger using 18-49 ratings rather than total viewers. If you're in the cultural popularity business, go with viewership, but 18-49 ratings are far more telling about success and how the industry works.

But it's become clear that there are predictable tendencies even deeper than that single linear relationship. The correlation with 18-49 ratings is good, but beyond that... even younger is better. We see this every year when I line up the ad rates and the ratings; shows like The Simpsons and New Girl skew extraordinarily young and are also the shows that get the most advertising revenue per adults 18-49 rating point. And this ad rates relationship translates to real decision-making. Just last week, the very young-skewing The Mindy Project got early renewed with borderline flop 18-49 numbers.

So today, a three-part investigation into the even younger demo of adults 18-34 begins. Today, we'll use ad rates to lay out the reasons for actually delving into this stuff, and then we'll make some big picture comparisons between the 18-34 and 18-49 demos. The last two posts will then be much more about individual shows.