Not sure if anyone remembers the good old days when I used to do a post evaluating the strength of each class of broadcast scripted newbies, but it has been a minute. My last one of these updates was for the 2018-19 season, plus I've since added two seasons of data on the back end (1999-00 and 2000-01).
I was inspired to go back and take a look at these numbers because while doing The Breakdown, as I got the impression that the new class of 2024-25 was one of the more promising ones in recent years. It was a decent one historically, but what really stands out is just how rotten the 2019-24 period was for broadcast development, and how drastically the quantity of total newbies has fallen. COVID and the writers' strike played big roles in that, but it's also worth wondering if it's an irreversible structural problem in an era of incredibly fractured attention. However, 2024-25 offered some hope that the big four can still do at least somewhat better than they've been doing.
I'm gonna quickly catch up on all these missing seasons, not yapping quite as much as I did in past editions, though I'm gonna zero out some of the 1999-00 stuff because I don't think my number of total 1999-00 shows is reliable. You can combine this post with the old one for a complete record of the era (though I haven't updated the old post yet because of the logistical issues with the 1999-00 season).
| Year | Tot | Flop | Renew | Solid | Hit | Big Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2000-01 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| 2001-02 | 36 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| 2002-03 | 36 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2003-04 | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2004-05 | 34 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| 2005-06 | 40 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2006-07 | 34 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007-08 | 29 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2008-09 | 25 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 2009-10 | 26 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| 2010-11 | 34 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2011-12 | 40 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 2012-13 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013-14 | 39 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| 2014-15 | 38 | 19 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| 2015-16 | 37 | 20 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 2016-17 | 37 | 13 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| 2017-18 | 31 | 12 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 2018-19 | 27 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2019-20 | 27 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020-21 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-22 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2024-25 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
1999-00
Big Hits: Malcolm in the Middle (162)
Solids: Once and Again (112), Titus (107), Third Watch (103)
Sub-solid renewals: The West Wing (99), Law and Order: SVU (99), Judging Amy (94), Family Law (87), City of Angels (60)
2000-01
Big Hits: Cursed (158)
Hits: CSI (138)
Solids: Three Sisters (116), Boston Public (116), Yes, Dear (111), Dark Angel (107), What About Joan (103), My Wife and Kids (103)
Sub-solid renewals: Ed (98), Grounded for Life (84), The District (75), That's Life (48)
2019-20
Hits: 9-1-1: Lone Star (147)
Solids: Bless the Harts (104)
Sub-solid renewals: Bob Hearts Abishola (92), Prodigal Son (91), FBI: Most Wanted (91), The Unicorn (87), Mixed-ish (76), All Rise (75), For Life (68), Evil (64), The Moodys (58), Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (51), Duncanville (50)
2020-21
Solids: Law and Order: Organized Crime (123), The Equalizer (116)
Sub-solid renewals: Young Rock (97), Call Me Kat (91), B Positive (86), The Great North (85), Big Sky (84), Mr. Mayor (80), United States of Al (78), Home Economics (71)
2021-22
Solids: La Brea (113), Ghosts (112), Abbott Elementary (111), FBI: International (104), NCIS: Hawai'i (101)
Sub-solid renewals: The Cleaning Lady (90), The Wonder Years (79), CSI: Vegas (77), American Auto (72), Grand Crew (61), Welcome to Flatch (32)
2022-23
Solids: Night Court (121), Fire Country (117)
Sub-solid renewals: So Help Me Todd (82), Quantum Leap (76), Accused (76), Alert: Missing Persons Unit (75), Not Dead Yet (71), Will Trent (67), Lopez Vs. Lopez (65), Animal Control (58)
2023-24
Hits: Tracker (126)
Sub-solid renewals: Krapopolis (99), NCIS: Sydney (90), Found (82), Elsbeth (72), The Irrational (70), Grimsburg (40)
2024-25
Big Hits: Universal Basic Guys (153)
Hits: Georgie and Mandy's First Marriage (136)
Solids: Shifting Gears (124), Watson (118), Matlock (117), High Potential (114), Poppa's House (104)
Sub-solid renewals: St. Denis Medical (96), NCIS: Origins (86), Happy's Place (85), Doc (76), Brilliant Minds (73), The Hunting Party (66), Murder in a Small Town (58), Going Dutch (48)
CAREER A18-49+ BY YEAR (about Career A18-49+ labels)
| Year | Tot | Utility | Staple | Tentpole | Star | Icon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2000-01 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2001-02 | 36 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2002-03 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2003-04 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2004-05 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| 2005-06 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2006-07 | 34 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007-08 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008-09 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009-10 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2010-11 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2011-12 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012-13 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 (+1) |
| 2013-14 | 39 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014-15 | 38 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2015-16 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2016-17 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017-18 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018-19 | 27 | 7 | 4 (+1) | 3 (+1) | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-20 | 27 | 3 | 2 (+1) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-21 | 18 | 3 (+1) | 1 (+1) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-22 | 21 | 3 (+1) | 1 (+1) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 | 1 (+1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-25 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1999-00: Icon Law & Order: SVU keeps the first class of the era alive and kicking to this day!! It carries this class at the higher tiers, while it was pretty average-ish in the lower tiers with two other shows ekeing out tentpole in their low-rated final seasons (The West Wing and Malcolm in the Middle) and two others achieving staple (Judging Amy and Third Watch).
2000-01: Extinct. Another year carried by a show deep into icon territory (CSI). Several other shows had OK runs but only one (Yes, Dear) made it to staple.
2001-02: Still extinct.
2002-03: Still extinct.
2003-04: Still alive (NCIS) but labeling is done.
2004-05: Welp, American Dad! is coming back to Fox to continue its pursuit of icon. I haven't tracked cable stuff since ShowBuzzDaily went under so I have a couple years of its ratings missing, but they wouldn't be enough to get its current total (1230) over the line. Mega-icon Grey's Anatomy is also still alive from this class.
2005-06: Still extinct.
2006-07: Still extinct.
2007-08: Still extinct.
2008-09: Still extinct.
2009-10: Extinct. NCIS: Los Angeles' long journey toward icon status came up just short; it ended in the 2022-23 season with a 1470 total.
2010-11: Blue Bloods and Bob's Burgers both made it to star status since the last update, and Bob's continues down the road toward icon (242 points away).
2011-12: Extinct. What seemed like a very promising class in its first season ended up producing not a single star. However, Last Man Standing's Fox run gave the class a fourth tentpole.
2012-13: Chicago Fire still carries the banner for the otherwise very weak class of 2012-13, becoming an icon this season. Nothing else even got to staple, making it the only one-staple class of the entire era.
2013-14: The Goldbergs and Chicago PD made this a multi-star season, but Mom came up short after struggling in its last two seasons. PD might cross icon this year (106 points away, got a 110 last year).
2014-15: Extinct. It seemed like a deep class, tying the utility record of 10. But other than Empire, which got to star in just five seasons, only one other show (Black-ish) hung around long enough for tentpole.
2015-16: The final season of Superstore four years ago was able to get this class a second staple, but now it's yet another class that's down to a Chicago. An optimistic scenario could see Med get to icon in two years (it's 234 points away).
2016-17: Extinct. This Is Us was the only star/tentpole, with Bull barely giving the class a second staple in its final season. American Housewife came up just short of a third staple.
2017-18: Ended up being a pretty strong class, as 9-1-1 (still alive) and Young Sheldon were stars, Station 19 was a tentpole, and The Good Doctor and S.W.A.T. came up just short of tentpole. Even The Resident crept into staple territory, making it six total (second best in the whole era).
2018-19: FBI is renewed for two more years so it will get to star in 2026-27. The Neighborhood, ending next season, will not make it. Four tentpoles (with The Conners being the third) is still a possibility as The Rookie keeps humming along.
2019-20: Now the pain begins. This class is already extinct, becoming the first zero-tentpole class of the era. The last two survivors, 9-1-1: Lone Star and FBI: Most Wanted, made it to staple but would've needed two more years for tentpole. Bob Hearts Abishola was just shy of giving the class a third staple.
2020-21: The Equalizer became the first staple of the class in its final season. The Great North lives on but is probably several years from giving it a second. Dire performance from the COVID-hampered class.
2021-22: Probably the least bad class of the atrocious 2019-24 stretch, with Ghosts already in staple territory and Abbott Elementary headed there next season. But the FBI: International cancellation ensures they will be the only two.
2022-23: Will Trent becomes a utility next year, joining Fire Country, but both are multiple seasons from staple. Since Night Court got axed a little shy of 300, this might become the first two-utility class of the era unless Animal Control can somehow hang on for three years.
2023-24: Tracker will fly past utility next year and likely get to staple in two years, carrying the banner for an eight-show class decimated by the writers' strike. NCIS: Sydney, Elsbeth, Krapopolis and Grimsburg are all still alive. The first two could become utilities in two years.
2024-25: Several shows with potential (especially Georgie and Mandy, Matlock, High Potential) but too early to say much more.
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