Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Best Case/Worst Case: Great News

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Great News
Tuesdays at 9:00 on NBC

Lead-in: The Voice Tue Spring (2.21 A18-49 this year)

This Year's Timeslot Occupants:
This Is Us (2.66 A18-49)
Trial and Error (0.92 A18-49)

In a Nutshell: In November 2014, NBC parted ways with its last Tina Fey/Robert Carlock production, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, which went on to considerable acclaim and success on Netflix. Two and a half years later, the duo is back on NBC with the new comedy Great News. It will double-pump at 9/8c after The Voice for the next four Tuesdays, then air its final two at 8/7c leading into Voice's finale.

Best Case: TV series set behind the scenes of a news program usually haven't been particularly broad-appealing fare, but this might just be the right time for something in that genre to pop; after all, the current political climate has done big things for cable news. The well-reviewed sitcom starts better than Trial and Error and doesn't drop much, settling with the same kind of ratings where T&E premiered. They shouldn't have canned Kimmy Schmidt but this will be sweet redemption for NBC. 1.25.

Worst Case: Trial and Error and Powerless were both ratings disappointments, and NBC liked this show even less than those two. It will also get a weaker lead-in from Voice than Trial and Error did, so it's gonna be rough. It can't get a 1.0 average on premiere night and plummets to a couple notches behind where Trial and Error settled. 0.60, and the last two eps are bumped into the summer in favor of a Voice recap for that show's finale night.

Likeliest: This show won't start off as well as the early weeks of Trial & Error because The Voice will be so much lower, but because I liked Briga Heelan from Ground Floor and Undateable, I think it will hold up OK and settle in a pretty similar area. 0.84. I still kinda feel that one of these post-Voice comedies is gonna pull off a pity-ish renewal, so it might really matter exactly where this one settles. If it manages at or above T&E levels with a later start date, it could be the one.

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