Monday, March 25, 2019

Renewology Week 26: The Fix and The Village Premiere


Here's a look at the big Renewology developments in week 26.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
The Village24%0.840.610.76121%29%
The Fix20%0.750.550.70121%36%

In a season that has been rather light on drama flops (and quite light on new scripted shows in general), we might finally be filling that column out a little bit in the last months of the season. The Village and The Fix both opened as long shots for renewal with underwhelming premiere nights. They're not quite so dire that they absolutely have to hold 100% of their premiere True ratings, but they're both less than a tenth away from dropping below their respective networks' targets.

Settling at 0.6 may not be enough for The Fix, at least while American Idol is its lead-in for the next month. The Village would end up being a favorite if it could hold onto 0.8 in the 10/9c hour long term, but it's not going to be at 10/9c long term; like Rise a year ago, its timeslot will get noticeably easier according to True when it moves to 9/8c. Settling at 0.8 at 9/8c would compare favorably with the year-ago Rise, but that's a very low bar and probably not quite enough to be an R% favorite.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
The Blacklist48%0.750.750.761219%44%
The Enemy Within33%0.730.680.76424%38%
The Village24%0.840.610.76122%29%
Good Girls23%0.650.640.76332%34%
Blindspot14%0.620.610.761622%41%

The Village's premiere was not the only development among NBC's drama renewal underdogs in the last week; The Enemy Within dropped to 0.8, Good Girls fell almost a full tenth to 0.5, and Blindspot returned to the 0.4 it hoped it had left behind in the fall. These five shows add up to 1.42 total renewals, and The Blacklist is already in the clubhouse with one. So it wouldn't be that surprising to see NBC wipe out all the others, or to have one more sneak through. If there has to be one, I'd probably put my money on Good Girls, which skews younger and seems to have a decent streaming audience.

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