(Flashforward vs. Ugly Betty) -35%
Grey's Anatomy -25%
Private Practice -20%
Survivor +14%
CSI -16%
(The Mentalist vs. Criminal Minds (R)) +43%
(Community vs. My Name is Earl) -5%
Parks and Recreation -14%
The Office -5%
30 Rock -10%
(The Marriage Ref vs. Southland) +10%
Bones +9%
(Fringe vs. Hell's Kitchen) -21%
(The Vampire Diaries vs. Smallville) +14%
Supernatural -8%
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
May Sweeps 2010 Week One Recap
Different day comparisons
Lost (T vs. W) -2%
The Mentalist (Th vs. T) -14%
Law & Order (M vs. W) -23%
Law & Order: SVU (W vs. T) -33%
Fringe (Th vs. T) -50%
Smallville (F vs. Th) -38%
Top 5 timeslot gainers
1. Dancing with the Stars vs. According to Jim (ABC, Tuesday 8pm) +140%
2. The Mentalist vs. Harper's Island (CBS, Thursday 10pm) +68%
3. 60 Minutes (CBS, Sunday 7pm) +47%
4. The Cleveland Show vs. Sit Down, Shut Up (Fox, Sunday 8:30pm) +37%
5. Who Do You Think You Are? vs. Howie Do It (NBC, Friday 8pm) +33%
Expect these numbers to be generally smaller than they were in the November comparisons since there are usually fewer flops airing in the spring than in the fall and because Jay Leno is out of primetime. Still, four of these comparisons are to shows that didn't make it into 2009-10. Even if Dancing results' 2.4 demo is a disappointment, it still easily takes the top spot by building on an According to Jim duo that managed only a 1.0. 60 Minutes, which had an interview with Conan O'Brien this year, is the only same-show comparison in the top 5.
Top 5 timeslot losers
1. Law & Order (R) vs. Heroes (NBC, Monday 9pm) -57%
2. Life Unexpected (R) vs. 90210 (CW, Tuesday 9pm) -56%
3. Lie to Me (R) vs. Lie to Me (Fox, Wednesday 8pm) -43%
4. Cougar Town vs. Lost (ABC, Wednesday 9:30pm) -41%
5-t. 20/20 (ABC, Friday 10pm) -36%
5-t. Parenthood vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC, Tuesday 10pm) -36%
Well, I resolved to start doing the weekly recaps again because there'd be fewer repeats, but... here we are with three repeats on top of the list! NBC has to run some repeats because the loss of Leno freed up so much space. The CW is running LUX repeats because it's more cost-effective than making more Melrose originals, which frankly wouldn't do much better. I guess Fox is saving up the original Lie to Me episodes for a summer run, so they're giving us some awkward May sweeps repeats. As with the timeslot gainers, a single same-show comparison makes the list, and it's a newsmagazine. These shows are so story-dependent that the potential for big-time fluctuations is always there.
Top 5 show gainers
1. 60 Minutes +47%
2. The Big Bang Theory (M9pm vs. M8pm) +35%
3. Castle +25%
4. Dateline (Fri.) +23%
5. Dateline (Sun.) +20%
The trend remains positive for The Big Bang Theory, which was usually on this list in November and is back despite a below-average result this week due to airing out of timeslot. Its number could get even higher - likely chart-topping - starting next week. Castle remains a pretty modest performer in the raw numbers, but its ability to build out of the weak 9:30 sitcoms is a step in the right direction compared to last season, when it actually dropped a couple ticks out of the last Monday airing of Surviving Suburbia. And then there are the newsmagazines. Since nobody really wants to talk about those, Dateline has been a bit of an unsung hero this season. It's now highly competitive with the scripted material on CBS Friday.
Top 5 show losers
1. Fringe (Th9pm vs. T9pm) -50%
2. Smallville (F8pm vs. Th8pm) -38%
3. 20/20 -36%
4. Law & Order: SVU (W10pm vs. T10pm) -33%
5. Ghost Whisperer -32%
Fringe and Smallville were regulars on this list in November, and expect that to still be the case, as they continue to suffer from moves into much tougher situations. Other regulars on the November lists like Ugly Betty, Heroes, and Cold Case won't be on the list this sweeps, so some new blood! Law & Order: SVU has been moved a couple times now, and its lead-in is considerably weaker than The Biggest Loser was last season, and it's felt the effects. And Ghost Whisperer, which popped up on one of these lists in November, remains one of the bigger deterioration stories of the season and has gone from the dominant Friday show to having a pretty doubtful future.
Lost (T vs. W) -2%
The Mentalist (Th vs. T) -14%
Law & Order (M vs. W) -23%
Law & Order: SVU (W vs. T) -33%
Fringe (Th vs. T) -50%
Smallville (F vs. Th) -38%
Top 5 timeslot gainers
1. Dancing with the Stars vs. According to Jim (ABC, Tuesday 8pm) +140%
2. The Mentalist vs. Harper's Island (CBS, Thursday 10pm) +68%
3. 60 Minutes (CBS, Sunday 7pm) +47%
4. The Cleveland Show vs. Sit Down, Shut Up (Fox, Sunday 8:30pm) +37%
5. Who Do You Think You Are? vs. Howie Do It (NBC, Friday 8pm) +33%
Expect these numbers to be generally smaller than they were in the November comparisons since there are usually fewer flops airing in the spring than in the fall and because Jay Leno is out of primetime. Still, four of these comparisons are to shows that didn't make it into 2009-10. Even if Dancing results' 2.4 demo is a disappointment, it still easily takes the top spot by building on an According to Jim duo that managed only a 1.0. 60 Minutes, which had an interview with Conan O'Brien this year, is the only same-show comparison in the top 5.
Top 5 timeslot losers
1. Law & Order (R) vs. Heroes (NBC, Monday 9pm) -57%
2. Life Unexpected (R) vs. 90210 (CW, Tuesday 9pm) -56%
3. Lie to Me (R) vs. Lie to Me (Fox, Wednesday 8pm) -43%
4. Cougar Town vs. Lost (ABC, Wednesday 9:30pm) -41%
5-t. 20/20 (ABC, Friday 10pm) -36%
5-t. Parenthood vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC, Tuesday 10pm) -36%
Well, I resolved to start doing the weekly recaps again because there'd be fewer repeats, but... here we are with three repeats on top of the list! NBC has to run some repeats because the loss of Leno freed up so much space. The CW is running LUX repeats because it's more cost-effective than making more Melrose originals, which frankly wouldn't do much better. I guess Fox is saving up the original Lie to Me episodes for a summer run, so they're giving us some awkward May sweeps repeats. As with the timeslot gainers, a single same-show comparison makes the list, and it's a newsmagazine. These shows are so story-dependent that the potential for big-time fluctuations is always there.
Top 5 show gainers
1. 60 Minutes +47%
2. The Big Bang Theory (M9pm vs. M8pm) +35%
3. Castle +25%
4. Dateline (Fri.) +23%
5. Dateline (Sun.) +20%
The trend remains positive for The Big Bang Theory, which was usually on this list in November and is back despite a below-average result this week due to airing out of timeslot. Its number could get even higher - likely chart-topping - starting next week. Castle remains a pretty modest performer in the raw numbers, but its ability to build out of the weak 9:30 sitcoms is a step in the right direction compared to last season, when it actually dropped a couple ticks out of the last Monday airing of Surviving Suburbia. And then there are the newsmagazines. Since nobody really wants to talk about those, Dateline has been a bit of an unsung hero this season. It's now highly competitive with the scripted material on CBS Friday.
Top 5 show losers
1. Fringe (Th9pm vs. T9pm) -50%
2. Smallville (F8pm vs. Th8pm) -38%
3. 20/20 -36%
4. Law & Order: SVU (W10pm vs. T10pm) -33%
5. Ghost Whisperer -32%
Fringe and Smallville were regulars on this list in November, and expect that to still be the case, as they continue to suffer from moves into much tougher situations. Other regulars on the November lists like Ugly Betty, Heroes, and Cold Case won't be on the list this sweeps, so some new blood! Law & Order: SVU has been moved a couple times now, and its lead-in is considerably weaker than The Biggest Loser was last season, and it's felt the effects. And Ghost Whisperer, which popped up on one of these lists in November, remains one of the bigger deterioration stories of the season and has gone from the dominant Friday show to having a pretty doubtful future.
Demos Year to Year, Wednesday 5/5/10
Presidential news conference on the year-ago evening so leaving out the 8pm hour for ABC, CBS, and NBC. Week one recap will have to wait till tomorrow. Sorry to leave you on pins and needles.
(Modern Family vs. Lost 9-9:30pm) even
(Cougar Town vs. Lost 9:30-10pm) -41%
(Happy Town vs. The Unusuals) -20%
Criminal Minds even
CSI: NY -28%
(Mercy vs. Law & Order: SVU (R)) -17%
(Law & Order: SVU vs. Law & Order) -15%
(Lie to Me (R) vs. Lie to Me) -43%
American Idol -16%
America's Next Top Model -17%
(Fly Girls 9pm vs. 90210 (R)) -17%
(Fly Girls 9:30pm vs. 90210 (R)) -20%
(Modern Family vs. Lost 9-9:30pm) even
(Cougar Town vs. Lost 9:30-10pm) -41%
(Happy Town vs. The Unusuals) -20%
Criminal Minds even
CSI: NY -28%
(Mercy vs. Law & Order: SVU (R)) -17%
(Law & Order: SVU vs. Law & Order) -15%
(Lie to Me (R) vs. Lie to Me) -43%
American Idol -16%
America's Next Top Model -17%
(Fly Girls 9pm vs. 90210 (R)) -17%
(Fly Girls 9:30pm vs. 90210 (R)) -20%
Thursday, May 6, 2010
First Two Weeks: How'd it go?
A little over seven months ago, I embarked on a quest to see if the ultimate fate of a first-season TV show could be determined by just its first two ratings results. Using that hypothesis, plus the tried and true wisdom that two-thirds of new shows don't make it to season 2, I divided the premiere results and the week 2 retention results into equal thirds and introduced this elegant graphic which illustrated the points system:
Thirty shows later, we're done with regular season shows for 2009-10, and we've got everything in place. This is what the final lists look like:
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%*
Sons of Tucson -10%*
The Cleveland Show -10%*
Romantically Challenged -10%*
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Happy Town -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
*- I finally did the rounding work, so the show with the actual worst retention is now the one that's bumped to tier 2. Modern Family and Sons of Tucson dropped 9.53%, The Cleveland Show dropped 10.20%, and Romantically Challenged dropped 10.34%, in case you were wondering.
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
How'd it go?
So now, with all the results in, how'd we do? We're not at the upfronts yet, so maybe it'd be better to wait on this post till then, but I can still say a few things at this point and will have more to say then. For now I'll go by category.
EXCELLENT: The biggest failing of this entire system was on Flashforward, which started pretty well and retained pretty well in week 2, but then just continued to slowly trickle downward until it became the mid-1's show it is today with almost no chance of renewal. I don't think there was really any way of doing this system that could've prognosticated a Flashforward failure. You just had to look at the other data points. The other three shows in this category were slam-dunk renewals.
GOOD ENOUGH: Perhaps the early renewal phenomenon bailed us out a bit here. Glee and The Vampire Diaries were both very obvious renewals, but The Good Wife and Cougar Town have struggled mightily down the stretch. Still, they're in based on earlier performance, just I said they would be in based on earlier performance. ;-) Accidentally on Purpose is the only question mark, and even it probably has a small chance of coming back, but I'm leaning no. So we probably go 4/5 here.
BORDERLINE: All season I've lamented about how a lot of true bombs have ended up in this category due to good retention out of a DOA start, but I think in saying that I may have lost sight of the basic principle of this exercise, which was "One third of new shows make it. Determine what the best third of shows is." And the shows in the borderline column are not in the best third. They're outside it, so officially the prognosis is cancellation. So a DOA show can't possibly get up into the 5 or 6 point land. In other words, maybe I shouldn't get too upset about the system saying a show is "barely dead" as opposed to "very dead."
That said, BORDERLINE really has been a borderline kind of category. Three shows here are already renewed, and perhaps the four shows with the biggest question marks at this late juncture (V, Human Target, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected) all reside here, too. So is there a way to separate the "DOA but good retention" bombs from the legitimately borderline shows? More on that in the post-upfronts post...
IN TROUBLE: To my credit, everything that scored 2 or 3 points is going to be canceled. Six of those ten shows are already axed, and the other four almost certainly will be.
So in the "safe" categories, I'm probably going to go 7/9, an unimpressive 78%. And in the "in trouble" category I'll go 100%. Borderline is going to be legitimately borderline, with currently 3 renewed, 4 axed or certain to be axed, and 4 borderline, of which I'd guess 2 or 3 will come back. Not half bad. But a few things need to be hammered out, namely the above issue about separating the two types of borderline shows, as well as trying to figure out if this is a useful tool early in the season... because you don't really need it that much right now, when it's easier to just look at the other data. I'll have more on all that after the upfronts.
Thirty shows later, we're done with regular season shows for 2009-10, and we've got everything in place. This is what the final lists look like:
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%*
Sons of Tucson -10%*
The Cleveland Show -10%*
Romantically Challenged -10%*
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Happy Town -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
*- I finally did the rounding work, so the show with the actual worst retention is now the one that's bumped to tier 2. Modern Family and Sons of Tucson dropped 9.53%, The Cleveland Show dropped 10.20%, and Romantically Challenged dropped 10.34%, in case you were wondering.
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
How'd it go?
So now, with all the results in, how'd we do? We're not at the upfronts yet, so maybe it'd be better to wait on this post till then, but I can still say a few things at this point and will have more to say then. For now I'll go by category.
EXCELLENT: The biggest failing of this entire system was on Flashforward, which started pretty well and retained pretty well in week 2, but then just continued to slowly trickle downward until it became the mid-1's show it is today with almost no chance of renewal. I don't think there was really any way of doing this system that could've prognosticated a Flashforward failure. You just had to look at the other data points. The other three shows in this category were slam-dunk renewals.
GOOD ENOUGH: Perhaps the early renewal phenomenon bailed us out a bit here. Glee and The Vampire Diaries were both very obvious renewals, but The Good Wife and Cougar Town have struggled mightily down the stretch. Still, they're in based on earlier performance, just I said they would be in based on earlier performance. ;-) Accidentally on Purpose is the only question mark, and even it probably has a small chance of coming back, but I'm leaning no. So we probably go 4/5 here.
BORDERLINE: All season I've lamented about how a lot of true bombs have ended up in this category due to good retention out of a DOA start, but I think in saying that I may have lost sight of the basic principle of this exercise, which was "One third of new shows make it. Determine what the best third of shows is." And the shows in the borderline column are not in the best third. They're outside it, so officially the prognosis is cancellation. So a DOA show can't possibly get up into the 5 or 6 point land. In other words, maybe I shouldn't get too upset about the system saying a show is "barely dead" as opposed to "very dead."
That said, BORDERLINE really has been a borderline kind of category. Three shows here are already renewed, and perhaps the four shows with the biggest question marks at this late juncture (V, Human Target, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected) all reside here, too. So is there a way to separate the "DOA but good retention" bombs from the legitimately borderline shows? More on that in the post-upfronts post...
IN TROUBLE: To my credit, everything that scored 2 or 3 points is going to be canceled. Six of those ten shows are already axed, and the other four almost certainly will be.
So in the "safe" categories, I'm probably going to go 7/9, an unimpressive 78%. And in the "in trouble" category I'll go 100%. Borderline is going to be legitimately borderline, with currently 3 renewed, 4 axed or certain to be axed, and 4 borderline, of which I'd guess 2 or 3 will come back. Not half bad. But a few things need to be hammered out, namely the above issue about separating the two types of borderline shows, as well as trying to figure out if this is a useful tool early in the season... because you don't really need it that much right now, when it's easier to just look at the other data. I'll have more on all that after the upfronts.
First Two Weeks, Happy Town
Happy Town (ABC)
Sampling: Happy Town was dead on arrival. Its 1.7 demo is the lowest non-Friday premiere on the big 4 this season. Barring something completely unthinkable the next week, you can pretty much hammer out the prognosis for this show based on this one data point.
Retention: Nothing completely unthinkable happened. In fact, it plunged from that tiny 1.7 start to an even more miniscule 1.2! The 29% drop is the second-largest for a big 4 scripted newbie this season, which is pretty unbelievable considering how low it started. Most DOA shows start so low that they don't get that much worse.
Prognosis: It's tough to start terribly and then drop huge, because you're already terrible to start. Only two other shows sit in that "2 point" category below because of that fact. But Happy Town is resoundingly there. We may have the biggest bomb of 2009-10. Let's just say this isn't coming back and leave it at that.
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
Sons of Tucson -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Romantically Challenged -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Happy Town -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
Sampling: Happy Town was dead on arrival. Its 1.7 demo is the lowest non-Friday premiere on the big 4 this season. Barring something completely unthinkable the next week, you can pretty much hammer out the prognosis for this show based on this one data point.
Retention: Nothing completely unthinkable happened. In fact, it plunged from that tiny 1.7 start to an even more miniscule 1.2! The 29% drop is the second-largest for a big 4 scripted newbie this season, which is pretty unbelievable considering how low it started. Most DOA shows start so low that they don't get that much worse.
Prognosis: It's tough to start terribly and then drop huge, because you're already terrible to start. Only two other shows sit in that "2 point" category below because of that fact. But Happy Town is resoundingly there. We may have the biggest bomb of 2009-10. Let's just say this isn't coming back and leave it at that.
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
Sons of Tucson -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Romantically Challenged -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Happy Town -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
Demos Year to Year, Tuesday 5/4/10
(Dancing with the Stars vs. According to Jim) +140%
(Lost vs. Dancing with the Stars) +21%
(V vs. Cupid) +31%
Dancing with the Stars (8pm vs. 9pm) -27%
NCIS -11%
(NCIS: LA vs. The Mentalist) -24%
(The Good Wife vs. Without a Trace) -8%
The Biggest Loser -11%
(Parenthood vs. Law & Order: SVU) -36%
American Idol -23%
(Glee vs. Fringe) +23%
(90210 vs. Reaper) even
(Life Unexpected (R) vs. 90210) -56%
90210 (8pm vs. 9pm) -22%
(Lost vs. Dancing with the Stars) +21%
(V vs. Cupid) +31%
Dancing with the Stars (8pm vs. 9pm) -27%
NCIS -11%
(NCIS: LA vs. The Mentalist) -24%
(The Good Wife vs. Without a Trace) -8%
The Biggest Loser -11%
(Parenthood vs. Law & Order: SVU) -36%
American Idol -23%
(Glee vs. Fringe) +23%
(90210 vs. Reaper) even
(Life Unexpected (R) vs. 90210) -56%
90210 (8pm vs. 9pm) -22%
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Demos Year to Year, Monday 5/3/10
Dancing with the Stars -5%
(Romantically Challenged vs. Surviving Suburbia) +9%
Castle +25%
(How I Met Your Mother vs. The Big Bang Theory) -9%
(Rules of Engagement vs. How I Met Your Mother) -24%
(The Big Bang Theory vs. 2.5 Men) -6%
(The Big Bang Theory (R) vs. Rules of Engagement) -8%
CSI: Miami -18%
HIMYM (8pm vs. 8:30pm) -16%
TBBT (9pm vs. 8pm) +35%
Rules of Engagement (8:30pm vs. 9:30pm) -28%
Chuck -21%
(Law & Order (R) vs. Heroes) -57%
(Law & Order vs. Medium) -23%
House -15%
24 -18%
(One Tree Hill (8pm) vs. Gossip Girl (8pm)) even
(Gossip Girl (9pm) vs. One Tree Hill (9pm)) -18%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -9%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -10%
(Romantically Challenged vs. Surviving Suburbia) +9%
Castle +25%
(How I Met Your Mother vs. The Big Bang Theory) -9%
(Rules of Engagement vs. How I Met Your Mother) -24%
(The Big Bang Theory vs. 2.5 Men) -6%
(The Big Bang Theory (R) vs. Rules of Engagement) -8%
CSI: Miami -18%
HIMYM (8pm vs. 8:30pm) -16%
TBBT (9pm vs. 8pm) +35%
Rules of Engagement (8:30pm vs. 9:30pm) -28%
Chuck -21%
(Law & Order (R) vs. Heroes) -57%
(Law & Order vs. Medium) -23%
House -15%
24 -18%
(One Tree Hill (8pm) vs. Gossip Girl (8pm)) even
(Gossip Girl (9pm) vs. One Tree Hill (9pm)) -18%
One Tree Hill (8pm vs. 9pm) -9%
Gossip Girl (9pm vs. 8pm) -10%
Demos Year to Year, Sunday 5/2/10
America's Funniest Home Videos -26%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -11%
Desperate Housewives -19%
Brothers & Sisters -23%
60 Minutes +47%
The Amazing Race -6%
Cold Case (9pm) -5%
(Cold Case (10pm) vs. The Unit) +10%
Dateline (7-8pm vs. 7-9pm) +20%
Celebrity Apprentice -16%
('Til Death vs. American Dad (R)) -22%
(The Simpsons (R) vs. King of the Hill) -29%
The Simpsons -10%
(The Cleveland Show vs. Sit Down, Shut Up) +37%
Family Guy (9-10pm vs. 9-9:30pm) +3%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -11%
Desperate Housewives -19%
Brothers & Sisters -23%
60 Minutes +47%
The Amazing Race -6%
Cold Case (9pm) -5%
(Cold Case (10pm) vs. The Unit) +10%
Dateline (7-8pm vs. 7-9pm) +20%
Celebrity Apprentice -16%
('Til Death vs. American Dad (R)) -22%
(The Simpsons (R) vs. King of the Hill) -29%
The Simpsons -10%
(The Cleveland Show vs. Sit Down, Shut Up) +37%
Family Guy (9-10pm vs. 9-9:30pm) +3%
Romantically Challenged vs. Surviving Suburbia
A lot of people seem to think Romantically Challenged is renewal-bound, perhaps most notably including Renew/Cancel at TVBTN.
Here's how the show looks compared to one of last year's ABC midseason sitcoms, Surviving Suburbia, which also aired at 9:30/8:30c out of Dancing with the Stars on Monday.
4/6/09 DWTS 4.6, SS 3.0
4/13/09 DWTS 4.6, SS 2.6
4/20/09 DWTS 4.7, SS 2.4
4/27/09 DWTS 4.3, SS 2.2
4/19/10 DWTS 4.8, RC 2.9
4/26/10 DWTS 4.4, RC 2.6
5/3/10 DWTS 4.1, RC 2.4
The first four are the four data points that ABC had on Surviving Suburbia when they went into the upfront and basically pocket vetoed the show, refusing a renewal until it had aired in the summer. In the summer, it bombed and was never heard from again.
The next three are the only three data points ABC will have on Romantically Challenged heading into the upfront, as episode four airs the night before the upfront and probably won't be a hugely deciding factor at that very late hour. First three weeks look extremely similar, with the only "good" news really being that lead-in Dancing with the Stars took a dive in the last couple weeks. Competition is, at best for Romantically, a wash. RC has faced the biggest sitcom on TV, but it's always been repeats. Suburbia had to kick around original Rules of Engagement, which was usually slightly stronger than the Big Bang repeats, but not by much. And ABC didn't have ownership in either show, so that's a wash.
So the deal is that a Romantically Challenged renewal will basically require ABC to renew the same show they axed (OK, "didn't renew") at this time last year. I'm not saying it's out of the question, but to say it's a shoo-in seems ridiculous. What factors would flip the script in RC's favor? I'm honestly not sure. Stay tuned.
Here's how the show looks compared to one of last year's ABC midseason sitcoms, Surviving Suburbia, which also aired at 9:30/8:30c out of Dancing with the Stars on Monday.
4/6/09 DWTS 4.6, SS 3.0
4/13/09 DWTS 4.6, SS 2.6
4/20/09 DWTS 4.7, SS 2.4
4/27/09 DWTS 4.3, SS 2.2
4/19/10 DWTS 4.8, RC 2.9
4/26/10 DWTS 4.4, RC 2.6
5/3/10 DWTS 4.1, RC 2.4
The first four are the four data points that ABC had on Surviving Suburbia when they went into the upfront and basically pocket vetoed the show, refusing a renewal until it had aired in the summer. In the summer, it bombed and was never heard from again.
The next three are the only three data points ABC will have on Romantically Challenged heading into the upfront, as episode four airs the night before the upfront and probably won't be a hugely deciding factor at that very late hour. First three weeks look extremely similar, with the only "good" news really being that lead-in Dancing with the Stars took a dive in the last couple weeks. Competition is, at best for Romantically, a wash. RC has faced the biggest sitcom on TV, but it's always been repeats. Suburbia had to kick around original Rules of Engagement, which was usually slightly stronger than the Big Bang repeats, but not by much. And ABC didn't have ownership in either show, so that's a wash.
So the deal is that a Romantically Challenged renewal will basically require ABC to renew the same show they axed (OK, "didn't renew") at this time last year. I'm not saying it's out of the question, but to say it's a shoo-in seems ridiculous. What factors would flip the script in RC's favor? I'm honestly not sure. Stay tuned.
Demos Year to Year, Friday 4/30/10
Wife Swap (8pm) -31%
(Wife Swap (9pm) vs. 20/20 (9pm) -13%
20/20 (10pm) -36%
Ghost Whisperer -32%
(Medium vs. Flashpoint) -13%
(Miami Medical vs. Numb3rs) -33%
(Who Do You Think You Are? vs. Howie Do It) +33%
Dateline +23%
(House (R) vs. Prison Break/Dollhouse) -18%
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +14%
America's Next Top Model (R) -20%
(Wife Swap (9pm) vs. 20/20 (9pm) -13%
20/20 (10pm) -36%
Ghost Whisperer -32%
(Medium vs. Flashpoint) -13%
(Miami Medical vs. Numb3rs) -33%
(Who Do You Think You Are? vs. Howie Do It) +33%
Dateline +23%
(House (R) vs. Prison Break/Dollhouse) -18%
(Smallville vs. Everybody Hates Chris/The Game) +14%
America's Next Top Model (R) -20%
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