Monday, April 15, 2019

Renewology Week 29: The Code Enters and Fam Exits


Here's a look at the big Renewology developments in week 29.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
The Code16%0.690.550.69111%40%

I've been talking all season about this phenomenon that saw ABC get through a large chunk of the season without really airing any drama flops. That could also be said of CBS, although Magnum P.I. and God Friended Me have had their shaky moments. But maybe CBS will get its first real megabomb with The Code, which had a compatibly ancient-skewing NCIS lead-in and could only muster up a 0.7 on its series premiere night. I hesitate to bet on CBS dramas collapsing post-premiere, so I wouldn't be that surprised to see it ultimately look a little less embarrassing on Monday. But I still think it will have a really tough time getting renewed, since Magnum and GFM are already in the clubhouse with renewals and there are so many better options still to come.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
Fam50%0.780.780.781320%39%

After its first post-March Madness episode, I thought Fam was heading down The Passage route; it looked like a true bubble show pretty much its entire run, then put up a couple stinkbombs at the end that did it in from an R% standpoint. Fam had one legit stinkbomb, the 0.7 following Mom, which I would argue was a far worse performance than anything it had ever done. But then it got back to a 0.8 for the finale after a 0.9 repeat lead-in, which looked more in line with all the rest of its run, so Renewology inched up to make it the tossiest of toss-ups.

I think it looked legitimately better at least in Live+SD than Murphy Brown (though Murphy pretty much catches up in the delayed numbers). I would call it pretty competitive with Man with a Plan (still a weak DVR gainer) as well. So, as the R% would suggest, it's not an easy one to figure out.

But there is another data point on the horizon that might help evaluate this show: the next occupant of its timeslot, veteran Life in Pieces. (As a side note, we'll see another such direct timeslot comparison starting this week on ABC, as Bless This Mess replaces Splitting Up Together.)

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