Monday, January 21, 2019

Renewology Week 17: The Passage Is a Toss-Up, Roswell Is a Favorite, A Million Little Things Moves


Here's a look at the big Renewology developments in week 17.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
The Resident52%0.860.880.871026%39%
The Passage51%1.180.880.87132%40%

On Monday, The Passage opened with what for other networks would be a promising start, but for new Fox is just a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ according to Renewology. If it had the NBC drama targets, it would be like a 70% favorite, and if it had the ABC targets, it would be like an 80% favorite. But it's on a network that is expected to scale back on scripted considerably, so it will probably have to keep being at least as strong as The Resident to have a good shot. I would probably take the under even at 51%, because this type of show typically does a below-average job at holding on post-premiere.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
Roswell, New Mexico75%0.400.300.24132%43%
All American57%0.250.250.24944%40%

Will the CW's last renewal of 2018-19 come down to a head-to-head duel between midseason newbie Roswell, New Mexico and fall newbie All American? All American had a dreadful start, a stellar post-premiere rally, but has been very slowly tapering off ever since it got that 0.31 in early November. It could definitely still get renewed, but it shouldn't feel too safe where it's at right now. Based on a medium 0.4 for the Roswell premiere, it's favored to settle at a stronger level than where All American has been of late.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
A Million Little Things89%0.840.810.651129%33%

As the guy who is always beating the drum about how hard the 10:00 hour is, perhaps I should be taking a victory lap after A Million Little Things surged by four tenths in its first episode at 9/8c after Grey's Anatomy. But even I don't think these timeslots are four tenths apart in difficulty; the True formula had it up by two tenths rather than four tenths, but that's a major change by True standards. It may have gotten a bit of a True bump because of the extra promotion that went with this move, but my expectation was always that it would basically settle at Station 19 levels, because the two shows had pretty similar True scores in the fall.

If it can actually keep getting a 1.0+, you would have to tip your cap, because it's turned this opportunity into some real momentum. It may be an easier timeslot, but in my opinion that would still look like a stronger show than the one getting 0.7's on Wednesday at 10/9c. On the other hand, if it starts drifting down toward its raw numbers from the fall, that could be rather worrisome; it's likely that would translate to a significant drop-off in the delayed viewing numbers. (But the Thursday DVR numbers aren't available as of this publication, so it could surprise me.) After how it opened on Thursday, I'm sticking with my guess that the reality will be somewhere in the middle, but we'll see.

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