Monday, November 5, 2018

Renewology Week 6: ABC Tuesday, Legacies Rallies, God Friended Me Sinks, Star vs. Resident


Here's a quick look at the big Renewology developments in week six!

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
ABC's Breakout Tuesday
Black-ish94%0.940.920.64333%33%
The Kids Are Alright81%0.930.820.64329%35%
The Rookie81%0.870.770.61323%39%
Splitting Up Together71%0.740.730.64333%31%

It's a fairly tried-and-true tradition that family comedies get nice bounces with their Halloween episodes. It happened two weeks ago with ABC Wednesday, and it really happened last week with ABC Tuesday. Renewology-wise, week 3 is kind of an annoying time for this to happen, since in the first three weeks the rolling average is only one episode; that means we are putting all the weight on what happened last week and probably really exaggerating how healthy these shows actually are. But if this is what ABC Tuesday looks like going forward (huge if), it will be tough to get rid of any of these shows. Even Splitting Up Together, the only one that was still somewhat iffy, looked like a much stronger show than, say, The Mayor in this timeslot a year ago.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
Legacies83%0.380.300.24240%33%

On Thursday, Legacies zoomed into far more favorable territory when it was up about 20% week-to-week in the un-rounded prelims. I guessed last week that the CW might have had an "off night" two weeks ago since Supernatural seemed so down, but gaining this much in a week two is quite a turnaround nonetheless. It's not out of the woods yet, but at this level it's got a lot of cushion relative to what we see as the CDub bubble.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
God Friended Me61%0.750.710.67516%44%

Just providing a little preview of what is probably going to be a big R% crash for God Friended Me later today. In contrast with something like Magnum, P.I., which has pretty much consistently looked like a bubble show every week, God Friended Me has a rolling average with one point that would be heavily favored for renewal (a high 1.2 after the NFL) and one that would be a significant underdog (0.7 without the NFL help). The NFL matters, but the True formula really thinks it shouldn't matter that much. After Sunday's results are in, the rolling average will be two non-NFL episodes, which probably means this thing will drop big time unless it rallied a lot last night. Getting a big bounce from the NFL is nice, but in the end GFM is gonna have to air a lot of episodes after the NFL is out of the picture completely. So being a show that looks a lot better after the NFL is probably not a great place to be.

NameR%TrueProjTargetAiredSkewMale
Star54%0.900.900.88539%34%
The Resident49%0.860.870.88627%37%

The Resident has kept plugging away on Monday, ekeing out a string of 1.0's. That'd be good enough for renewal on any other network, but this is Fox; Renewology expects Fox to be very harsh because of the Disney deal, and at the same time the network is really overachieving in the ratings. So we perceive The Resident to be right on the razor's edge. Star, on the other hand, was much deeper into the 1's early in the season, and that seemed too high to deny. Now... maybe it's getting interesting? The True formula has never really been able to properly account for how much young-skewing Fox shows get killed on holidays, so maybe this Halloween rating will mark a low point for Star. But it wouldn't have fallen this far in R% if it hadn't already started to get weaker the previous week. These shows suddenly don't seem too different, strength-wise.

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