tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post734207802635953231..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/10/14Spothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-78461005773525454712014-12-12T12:10:19.929-05:002014-12-12T12:10:19.929-05:00If those midseason shows would rate good (like 0.8...If those midseason shows would rate good (like 0.8+), then they're dumb for not premiering it in in fall and pushing Jane or The 100 to midseason. But Pedowitz is completely opposite of dumb, and CW always correctly picks most promising rookies for the fall - so I think best case for those 2 is 0.5-0.6, like The 100 year ago. In fact, in my opinion it will be 0.3-0.4. For The Messengers I'm sure, but Maybe iZombie surprises.<br /><br />All in all, I don't think CW midseason can outrate Reign/Jane/The 100 in ratings. Maybe they could tie one/more of those in ratings, but then to be cancelled because of episode count factor.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-57902072217399565482014-12-12T11:41:23.678-05:002014-12-12T11:41:23.678-05:00Yes, you've summarized it quite well in terms ...Yes, you've summarized it quite well in terms of what our disagreements here. I just think that one can make the case that they already threw the towel on Thursday this season so doing it twice in a row would be really admitting they are at a loss as to what to do with the night. And like I said, I think things would be different if TVD wasn't ending, but since it is, I think they wold prefer to establish something there next season than to try to start from scratch the year after. Just my guess, but well, agree to disagree.<br /><br />And a lot really hinges on development by the way. If they have two male shows they really like, I fully expect them to launch them both in the fall Wednesday and Tuesday. But the odds of that happening aren't that great.<br /><br />(There are also this year's midseason shows, but we're both leaving them out of the equation for now, presumably assuming none will be renewed. I need to at least see a schedule before including them in any scenario).Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-38116493943908219902014-12-12T11:29:47.298-05:002014-12-12T11:29:47.298-05:00I don't think networks can cut the orders of s...I don't think networks can cut the orders of shows from outside production companies.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-38896839253539629232014-12-12T11:25:51.267-05:002014-12-12T11:25:51.267-05:00Again we agree about most of the things. Again we ...Again we agree about most of the things. Again we disagree about The 100.<br /><br />I agree Friday 8 PM won't be a drama in fall - because some of those low rated dramas would get around 0.3 on Friday, while they can get better than that from ANTM or Whose Line. And those come at lower price - so double win.<br />I agree Friday 9 PM in fall could be renewed low rated drama. But I think it would be the case only if they wouldn't already have such one on Thursday 9 PM. There's no need for 2 of such, right? However, I think they will put Reign at Thu 9 PM (or Jane if Reign ratings drop even more), so I think there will be no dramas on Friday in fall.<br /><br />I agree they will very likely have 2 new dramas, But I'm not excluding it could be 3 rookies, in case they would like their pilots, That is similar as in previous seasons - they have 4 sure renewals + Originals because of cancellation bear rule. Same as eery year, while they would like to cancel all of their losers, but their pilots usually look poor to them, so they don't trust those rookies enough to give them 3 fall timeslots. In turn, they renew 1 or 2 more losers that they would like to - simply because CW is afraid new shows would be even bigger losers.<br /><br />All in all, our disagreement is only in this:<br />You think they will try to repair Thursday with Supernatural on Thu 9 PM, and pity renewed drama at Fri 9 PM which leaves The 100 at Wednesday.<br />I think they will try to strengthen Wednesday with Supernatural, throw in the towel on Thursday 9 PM with pity renewed drama, and no dramas on Friday (in fall only), which pushes The 100 to midseason.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-83592418668516088322014-12-12T11:02:04.807-05:002014-12-12T11:02:04.807-05:00Why would they rack episodes? To rack up even more...Why would they rack episodes? To rack up even more losses? There's no zillions of syndication money waiting for those shows in syndication. Those are not cop procedurals, those CW teen soaps rarely got syndicated. And when Gossip Girl did get syndication deal, it was for small money, and it was epic fail (pulled very soon).<br /><br />It's completely opposite, CBS Productions want those to stop airing as soon as possible, they want to replace it with some rookies that at least have theoretical chance to return investment.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-52638269325030847762014-12-12T10:50:01.658-05:002014-12-12T10:50:01.658-05:00The CBS shows are on Friday to rack up episode cou...The CBS shows are on Friday to rack up episode counts. They are ratings losers. First run ratings aren't their purposes for continuing. The 100 is also on the brench simply because the CW has an epic past of midseason flops, so if one of the new shows flop, even the 100 will probably do better.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-44580902317775550972014-12-12T10:43:58.187-05:002014-12-12T10:43:58.187-05:00I imagine that's part of the reason the third ...I imagine that's part of the reason the third CSI spinoff went to New York. I was hoping that they'd pick a different big city like Chicago.<br /><br /><br />How much growth CSI got from renewed patriotism after 9/11 is a little difficult to measure since season 1's average is pulled down by the Friday episodes. Looking at comparable episodes between seasons 1 and 2, though, there's about a half point bounce on average.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-55986246989539030532014-12-12T10:41:19.347-05:002014-12-12T10:41:19.347-05:00I think your schedule is unlikely, because Jane, R...I think your schedule is unlikely, because Jane, Reign and The 100 are all at 0.6 or lower already before usual spring drop<br /> = money losers, and I doubt they would renew all 3 of their money losers (probably it will be 4 in the end, with Originals fading fast). OK, maybe they'll have no other choice (if both midsesson shows flop + they don't like their pilots), but still I think then CW would look to push 2 of pity renewals to the midseason (not all 3, that would be too much).<br /><br />If all their show would average at least 0.8 at the season end, then your schedule would be acceptable. Only, I would have Jane leading into more explicit Reign, not the other way around.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-64836493768989906622014-12-12T10:40:53.619-05:002014-12-12T10:40:53.619-05:00Not saying it isn't but I am not sure developm...Not saying it isn't but I am not sure development will allow for that.<br /><br />In addition, Pedowitz seems committed (not only saying so, but actually acting like it) in keeping the schedule with as much variety as possible, which is clear by the 2 male | 2 female nights split (Supernatural is a hybrid though). Therefore, the argument that the male part of the schedule is doing much better than the female one can also be seen as exactly the reason as to why focus more on developing the female portion (especially because, as I was saying before, TVD is soon ending and that it will hurt them).Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-16050860808460627902014-12-12T10:37:52.459-05:002014-12-12T10:37:52.459-05:00Compare the Flash and Arrow to Originals and Vampi...Compare the Flash and Arrow to Originals and Vampire Diaries. The 100 to Reign. The male anchors are shadowing the female anchors. Even the male bubble is unshining the female bubble! It is in their best interest to launch more than 1 male show IMO. Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-9306620776670955882014-12-12T10:28:33.835-05:002014-12-12T10:28:33.835-05:00I think there is virtually no chance of the CW ren...I think there is virtually no chance of the CW renewing all of its fall shows which is what your schedule implies. I also don't think they have any incentive to do so because they would get comparable ratings on Friday with at least one of Whose Line and Top Model. For the sake of Whose Line, I think Season 3 should run Spring-Summer and take a break on the fall this year so that people can miss the show. But Top Model should get the fall schedule to amortize costs, especially if you want to have 3 new shows.<br /><br />Other than that, launching 3 new shows certainly depends on development. Your schedule would imply they would have 2 strong male skewing shows and 1 strong female skewing show. The CW has never launched 2 male skewing shows in the fall. It's not a big precedent since it's only been 3 years since they've started going for the male audience and one can argue they could have done it last year if they wanted to launch both TTP and The 100 in the fall, but it really hinges a lot on development. If they don't have a second strong male show, The 100 probably stays put.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-47155706833318765972014-12-12T10:24:32.282-05:002014-12-12T10:24:32.282-05:00At its current ratings level, those might save it....At its current ratings level, those might save it. But if Jane drops to like a .2, then it simply won't matter.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-84613372666723201172014-12-12T10:23:00.479-05:002014-12-12T10:23:00.479-05:00My idea for next year CW:
Monday:
Originals
NEW
T...My idea for next year CW:<br />Monday:<br />Originals <br />NEW<br />Tuesday:<br />The Flash <br />NEW<br />Wednesday:<br />Arrow NEW<br />Thursday:<br />Vampire Diaries<br />Supernatural<br />Friday:<br />Reign<br />Jane<br />Bench:<br />Top Model<br />Whose Line<br />The 100Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-64247481948923074182014-12-12T10:19:17.661-05:002014-12-12T10:19:17.661-05:00I've see CSI executives talk about how 9/11 di...I've see CSI executives talk about how 9/11 did wonders for CSI ratings as going after the bad guys and bringing them to justice became so much more likable. I have also seen things where shows based in New York (like Friends) got nice boosts because of a newfelt American loyalty to the injured citySpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-866808898683691022014-12-12T08:46:13.237-05:002014-12-12T08:46:13.237-05:00True enough, but SVU seems to get harder to renew ...True enough, but SVU seems to get harder to renew from a cost standpoint every year. If 1.4 is where it holds in the spring I think it's done, but it's certainly not been a 1.4 show through the fall...Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-45481349506399250142014-12-12T04:19:52.667-05:002014-12-12T04:19:52.667-05:00I think I was one of the first to suggest that the...I think I was one of the first to suggest that they finished Nashville earlier to run AWC there but Nashville is actually doing much better in the ratings then I thought it would be doing. If it keeps up in January, then I don't see much reason to mess with it at this point. ABC already has a lot to promote for the spring actually (Secrets and Lies, American Crime, presumably The Whispres, the return of Shield, the return of OUAT, maybe Beyond the Tank) and they could certainly use a decent drama on the summer schedule.<br /><br /><br />As for NBC and the CW, it's getting seriously annoying that they don't release their midseason schedules. The most bugging aspect for me is Thursdays at 8 for NBC. I am starting to believe they will put Game Night there, which would probably be the worst scheduling move in recent memory, I can't even believe it. But if they were to put there a new drama they would have to had announce it already. And I know you think it could be a second cycle of TBL, but the first one ends the week before The Blacklist premieres (or two weeks before, not important), so I don't believe they would have two cycles back to back like that.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-28601758161690186982014-12-12T04:15:53.889-05:002014-12-12T04:15:53.889-05:00A month ago I was almost sure the 100 was doomed b...A month ago I was almost sure the 100 was doomed but schedule considerations have me more optimistic. See my pots above for a lengthier explanation about what I mean, but basically I think it's highly possible that the CW keeps Tuesday and Wednesday as male nights and uses Supernatural to patch things up either on Monday or Thursday. In that case, the CW could use the 100 either if A) they only have one male skewing show to launch in the fall, which allow the 100 to return to the post arrow slot or B) they have two male skewing shows to launch in the fall (post arrow and post flash), but that also means the odds of needing a reliable replacement like the 100 are higher, so the 100 could easily get another midseason launch as a result.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-38338690081097597302014-12-12T04:13:33.483-05:002014-12-12T04:13:33.483-05:00I agree with principle but for the last years the ...I agree with principle but for the last years the CW has always made a move that was somehow surprising to me. I didn't think they would air The Originals on a separate night from the parent show and I didn't think they would move TO this year. In hindsight, both of those decisions make sense, I just didn't think they would happen at the time.<br /><br />For instance, one thing to bear in mind is that The Vampire Diaries will probably have an announced final season next year. So if they put a sacrificial lamb Thursdays 9pm, that means the season after they are forced to start from scratch on the entire night, which would be ill advised. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that they move The Originals or Supernatural to Thursdays 9pm, not only to fix the slot but to prepare for a Thursday sans TVD, which will soon be a reality. That scenario could then have a house of cards effect on the rest of the schedule that could even result on the 100 keeping its fall slot if they don't have two male skewing shows worth premiering (in any case, even if they premiere two male skewing dramas ,that's still probably good for the 100 as there is more reason to keep it as backup since the odds of a replacement being needed are higher)<br /><br />Possibilities:<br />Monday: TO | New female skewing drama<br />Tuesday: The Flash | New male skewing drama<br />Wednesday: Arrow | New Male Skewing Drama or The 100<br />Thursday: The Vampire Diaries | Supernatural<br />Friday: Reign or the Virgin | America's Next Top Model and then Whose Line | Reign or the Virgin<br /><br />Monday: New female skewing drama | Supernatural<br />Tuesday: The Flash | New male skewing drama<br />Wednesday: Arrow | New male skewing drama or The 100<br />Thursday: The Vampire Diaries | The Originals<br />Friday: Reign or the Virgin | Ameica's Next Top Model and then Whose Line | Reign or the Virgin<br /><br />I am not saying these are more likely than yours, but I think they are at the very least possible. And in picking between the two, I would tend to favor the second option. Yes, the first has the bird in one advantage of already having TO on Mondays and not Supernatural, but launching a promising drama paired with Supernatural has worked well for them in the past. It depends on the type of drama. If it's another Virgin then it's a fool's errand but if it's another TO (a female skewing show but with enough supernatural elements to appeal to the genre crowd) it's not a bad plan.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-63078099667897276982014-12-12T04:04:36.712-05:002014-12-12T04:04:36.712-05:00PD may have built on SVU but I don't think it ...PD may have built on SVU but I don't think it would pull the same numbers without SVU, so SVU's strength is still there. Besides, I think this is arguably the first really bad data point SVU has had the entire fall and it's not like it was <i> that </i> bad anyway, it was only down 11% year to year, a perfectly average league drop.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-57964289311901919342014-12-12T04:03:14.367-05:002014-12-12T04:03:14.367-05:00It's eve more puzzling when they had the sing ...It's eve more puzzling when they had the sing off on the bench and ready to go and pull comparable numbers and yet decided to just air it for one night next week. Why not make it a multiple night event again and save original episodes for later? At least for Wednesday they should have aired it.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-50002155533785612302014-12-12T03:31:05.695-05:002014-12-12T03:31:05.695-05:00Yup, dreadful scheduling there. For me, PD buildin...Yup, dreadful scheduling there. For me, PD building in SVU is huge. If that is carried through into 2015, SVU is undisputed bearchow.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-67280895861511367752014-12-12T03:29:13.775-05:002014-12-12T03:29:13.775-05:00I'd be fairly confident The 100 is dunzo now. ...I'd be fairly confident The 100 is dunzo now. Jane and Reign both have more compelling renewal reasons. Wouldn't care to guess which of those wins out, but either way they are the ratings bar the midseasoners have to clear to even be in the conversation.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-60378564535836725552014-12-12T01:10:38.583-05:002014-12-12T01:10:38.583-05:00I could be totally off base, but I just don't ...I could be totally off base, but I just don't see The CW fully axing a show with critical acclaim and two Golden Globes nominations. I know these things don't bring in money, but I think for a network like CW, those kinds of intangibles matter. Either way, I don't see Jane getting shuttled off to Fridays now. It will be interesting to see where things fall come spring. I'm actually quite curious to see where things end up for TVD - aren't the actors' contracts up this season? I'm pretty sure at least one of the core three wants off that show, and I'm not sure there's enough money available to keep all three onboard. If that proves to be the case, and they can only keep two of them, for instance, will the CW renew?Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-25769559175853694312014-12-11T18:17:44.121-05:002014-12-11T18:17:44.121-05:00A little surprised that Stalker lost to Chicago PD...A little surprised that Stalker lost to Chicago PD AND Nashville. I definitely think CBS will cut the full season order down to 18.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-61406607146318029672014-12-11T18:11:08.380-05:002014-12-11T18:11:08.380-05:00NBC had a bad Wednesday. But maybe that was just a...NBC had a bad Wednesday. But maybe that was just a one time thing. Wait and see.<br /><br />Hell's Kitchen only 12% y2y lower than (at least) 5x more expensive The X-Factor. Not to say HK is a winner, but certainly shows what a loser TXF was.<br /><br />Tonight The Big Bang Theory should score high 4s. At least, according to my theories that TGIT hurts it a lot. If it won't? Wouldn't be the first time my theory went down the toilet. Nor the last time.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com