tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post6939123443132103641..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday 10/9cSpothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-332361615977706002013-09-20T13:01:08.657-04:002013-09-20T13:01:08.657-04:00I'm not really sure there's a scenario whe...I'm not really sure there's a scenario where the audiences cannibalize each other. I think they're all distinct.<br /><br />That said, I am worried that people just aren't interested in Elementary, so that one might be worth keeping an eye on.<br /><br />My pick:<br />ElementarySpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-8372428942332524772013-09-19T17:04:16.447-04:002013-09-19T17:04:16.447-04:00I think there's a possibility that Scandal ave...I think there's a possibility that Scandal averages above 3.0.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-32836434768923309392013-09-19T14:57:59.021-04:002013-09-19T14:57:59.021-04:00Regarding Elementary: I think Fridays will fall ap...Regarding Elementary: I think Fridays will fall apart and I think Sundays will continue to fall into horrific territory. Therefore, even assuming Intelligence comes back in the fall and that Undercover Boss would remain in the fall and that the 4th comedy hour sticks, CBS would still have 5 potentially problematic hours: Elementary+H50+Blue Bloods+The Good Wife+The Mentalist. It is a tossup at this point if Elementary makes it or not out of these. Normally, I would agree with the "bird on the one hand" argument (assuming that if the show survives, it's weekend bound), but the cancellation of MC and its replacement with TN suggests otherwise. It really is hard to say at this point.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-8870862140033411252013-09-19T14:51:56.909-04:002013-09-19T14:51:56.909-04:00Some may argue that Scandal was the biggest story ...Some may argue that Scandal was the biggest story of last season, so saying it is the biggest story of this timeslot is for sure not a stretch!Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-75291550471263824092013-09-19T14:49:21.172-04:002013-09-19T14:49:21.172-04:00Scandal: I adore this show to death and it was kil...Scandal: I adore this show to death and it was killing me to see it battling for survival in its early days, I don't think I've ever seen such an unexpected, yet pleasant surprise ratings wise. This being said, while I think it will still be huge, I don't think it will be able to have as much of a good spring as it did last year. I give it a slightly worse than yours 2,78 - still an enormous hit! This being said, the sky really is the limit and it could shock us all yet again (and I would love it!)<br /><br /><br /><br />Elementary: I really think CBS did a disservice by keeping the show in a midweek timeslot this year. Comparing it directly with H50 for instance, I feel like the show would do a better job on fridays than h50 will do and I feel that this one will do slighly worse numbers on thursday than 5.0 would have kept bringing on mondays. Anyway, I predict a terrible thing here. Promotion is gone, super compatible lead-in is gone and competition is worse. Where are the positives? A 1.69 and CBS has tough decisions ahead of it on the drama department at the end of the year<br /><br /><br />Parenthood: This is the biggest unknown of the hour. You summed it up perfectly. It has positives, it has negatives. Ultimately, I think that the airing in the spring effect will be a big one and I also feel that moves, by themselves, also lead to some degree of erosion. A 1.51, but probably still gets its renewal. <br /><br /><br /><br />Network to watch: Parenthood is very interesting and the biggest unknown, but I will go with Scandal<br /><br /><br />My picks: Scandal of course! Also, I am in the same boat as you with Covert Affairs (have caught up with the summer season, but will probably watch the fall portion later on). Later on, my beloved Suits!Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-58094820977879171542013-09-19T14:46:31.020-04:002013-09-19T14:46:31.020-04:00Scandal is the big story of the time slot, isn'...Scandal is the big story of the time slot, isn't it? Even if it "disappoints" with a mid-2s premiere, that's still 25% growth year-to-year, which is massive for a third season. If they could somehow manage another twist like last year's "Who shot the President?" storyline, I think a mid-3s average is a possibility. The fact that Shonda Rhimes treats each batch of episodes separately seems to be why it doesn't get the some creativity complaints that Once and Revenge have been saddled with the past year.<br /><br /><br />There's also the mini-syndie deal with BET to tap into the show's huge black female fandom. I'm sure it'll have some effect, though I'm not sure if it will be positive or negative. Are people going to not watch live or same day as often, knowing that they can wait until after the seven-day window and watch the next weekend? (I kind of doubt it. It's still a "water cooler" show now.)<br /><br /><br />Elementary is in a bad situation, IMO. It did not stand out in its first season, hanging out in the low-2s even though a highly-compatible show in Person of Interest was in the high-2s or better pretty much the entire time.The Super Bowl lead-out treatment didn't help. The two-hour finale with Moriarty reveal didn't help. It's only been on the air for one year, and it already looks spent. Now it'll have fratcom Two and a Half Men with its 37th retool as a lead-in, and we don't know how stable it'll be after single-cam Crazy Ones. I think it falls another 15% below 2. Then it's up to CBS to see if it will try to drag yet another CBS TV-owned show into syndication.<br /><br /><br />Parenthood is an odd duck. I think it has enough of a built-in audience that even if Sean Saves the World and Michael J. Fox Show were to flop, they wouldn't take it down with them the way 1600 Penn took down Hannibal. That said, if they were both to succeed, I don't see any growth potential in this pretty serialized drama. What I think that some might disagree with is that I don't see a lot of audience crossover between this and Scandal. Setting aside the racial component of the audiences, there is a distinct tonal difference between standard drama Parenthood and soapy Scandal. I guess that it only drops 5% to the high-1s. It could very well be the highest number of the night.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-4115298647793391572013-09-19T11:47:13.686-04:002013-09-19T11:47:13.686-04:00Too bad ABC doesn't get the Super Bowl this ye...Too bad ABC doesn't get the Super Bowl this year; Scandal feels like a show that would hit greater highs after being a SB lead-out similar to how Grey's Anatomy did in 2006. But at least like Grey's, this will probably be a serialized drama that has two seasons of ratings growth.<br /><br /><br />The worst thing for Parenthood would be for Sean Saves the World to flop but MJF to succeed; it'll lead NBC to moving MJF and put a weaker or unproven sitcom at 9:30. Then it could have no lead-in AND very real competition. But Parenthood feels like a show with a more loyal audience and may make another season while NBC focuses on Wednesdays in 2014-2015.<br /><br /><br />Elementary's situation is unusual. You have to go back to 2007-2008 to find CBS canceling a drama in its second year (if you exclude NBC refugee Medium): Shark and Jericho. (Even then you could make the argument that the writer's strike did those shows in: Shark had its production rhythm interrupted while resurrected Jericho essentially aired during CBS' "summer" in the winter.) But I think there's a real possibility of Elementary getting canceled if it pulls mid-1s; CBS can't be confident in the show holding up in a Friday or Sunday move, and a Sunday move in particular would be just to have the show skate along until a syndication deal is made.<br /><br /><br />I made sample Scandal in this hour, but more likely I'm taking a flyer to catch up on the DVR'ed shows.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com