tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post6063240690822466645..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 8/7cSpothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-10917966445397991432014-09-07T11:09:25.535-04:002014-09-07T11:09:25.535-04:00That's logical explanation. Thanks.That's logical explanation. Thanks.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-8549130497288659412014-09-06T09:22:05.014-04:002014-09-06T09:22:05.014-04:00And it will have to be comedy encores since they a...And it will have to be comedy encores since they are not launching any drama this early fall which is one of the biggest scheduling oddities of the year (I am sorry but I don't consider Mysteries of Laura a serious attempt since I expect it to be canned in no time)Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-19334779381837031992014-09-06T09:20:35.892-04:002014-09-06T09:20:35.892-04:00Regarding Dixie, my understanding is that the show...Regarding Dixie, my understanding is that the show is not ready to go since Rachel Bilson is pregnant. I haven't been following it closely so I could be wrongSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-75331906368199559252014-09-06T09:18:50.610-04:002014-09-06T09:18:50.610-04:00Well, we all thought that two seasons ago ABC also...Well, we all thought that two seasons ago ABC also had to order another multicam to keep LMS and they went with The Neighbrors as its pair, so who knows what they will come up with? I am not sure development is such a huge help in predicting the fate of LMS.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-22625967556282580982014-09-06T09:17:13.983-04:002014-09-06T09:17:13.983-04:00This hour doesn't really have much scripted fo...This hour doesn't really have much scripted for me to predict so here it goes:<br />- Last Man Standing: 1.26. I guess you can say I am much more positive about this one than you are even though we only have a 6% difference. The thing with this show is that it had an 11% drop last year in a much tougher situation! Not only it didn't have those very initially high rated episodes from early on when it premiered on Fridays, it also had an incompetent lead-out and, much more importantly, it had to air deep into the spring, which didn't happen the year before when Happy Endings took over. So I really don't find anything going against it this year after having held so well last season. Sure, there is TAR, but I am not sure how much overlap there is there. So I think it grows on Plus this season. You may have a point in it struggling to get a renewal this year but IMO that would be for reasons that are non ratings related so I don't see the point of letting said reasons influence the ratings predictions.<br /><br /><br /><br />- Cristela: 1.01: We have the same number here but since it's all about retention my number looks worse than yours and that feels right to me since I am less optimistic about this than you are. Not much to add but I am not a big buyer here. So I gave it a generic 80% retention, which is about the same number that had MC canned two years ago, for whatever it's worth (for the record, I kind of think ABC regrets simply not riding that one out. It would be a studios production entering its third season now had it been renewed and probably continuing to do the same unspectacular but passable retention here.<br /><br /><br />On the unscripted front, only TAR is worth any look at. You pose some very compelling arguments about it since I had always been assuming that the show was a shoe in to improve on the slot but now it looks less certain. I still feel that Sundays=Fridays on CBS so maybe your H50 comparison is not fair because it's almost like the show was already on Fridays before, hence the percentage drop should be way lower than from a show moving from an actual weekday. It will be interesting to see.<br /><br /><br />Network to watch: Taking CBS here, TAR's transition will be interesting to watch<br /><br /><br />My Picks: Probably the only hour of the week in which I have nothing.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-20458466608921745432014-09-05T16:45:45.456-04:002014-09-05T16:45:45.456-04:00Pretty sure it's encores at 8 and two-hour Dat...Pretty sure it's encores at 8 and two-hour Datelines from 9-11.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-85308502255541300992014-09-05T16:32:20.124-04:002014-09-05T16:32:20.124-04:00I think there's a few key differences:
1. The...I think there's a few key differences:<br /><br />1. The Amazing Race will have a consistent start time in the Fall for the first time since 2005. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition never had that situation.<br />2. Race is a serialized reality show while EM:HE was a standalone show.<br />3. Other than Undercover Boss' brief time on the night, CBS hasn't historically tried to program Sunday to win. So Race became the crown jewel ratings-wise. ABC has a history of trying to be splashy and trying to compete. EM:HE was always outshone by Desperate Housewives & Grey's Anatomy, and was neck-and-neck with Brothers & Sisters.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-41225677906618395212014-09-05T15:51:55.445-04:002014-09-05T15:51:55.445-04:00I think the Amazing Race is comparable to Extreme ...I think the Amazing Race is comparable to Extreme Home Makeover a few years back. Both are family oriented reality shows moving from Sundays at 8 to Fridays at 8. Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-71649525333151232452014-09-05T15:37:33.820-04:002014-09-05T15:37:33.820-04:00TAR's situation is legitimately interesting, a...TAR's situation is legitimately interesting, and I'm with Spot in thinking there's a big range here. It [i]should[/i] be ugly in one way, but the NFL lead-in is a mixed blessing, and it's dented big time by 60 Minutes anyway. It'll surely have to do better than UB numbers to win a renewal from here.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-51387753329207197702014-09-05T11:42:01.809-04:002014-09-05T11:42:01.809-04:00My understanding is that Whose Line is going Origi...My understanding is that Whose Line is going Original/Repeat in this hour for the Fall. Given that the show's repeats can hit the first-run numbers, it makes sense to amortize the (minimal) costs and rerun it <i>ad infinitum</i>.<br /><br /><br />I'm still of the opinion that ABC's renewal of Last Man Standing was connected with the pick-ups of Cristela and Fresh Off the Boat, sort of how Sony probably tied The Blacklist with Community last season to give the sitcom a fifth season (though NBC's complete ineptitude with comedies helped Community's young-skewing case). If we see ABC ordering multi-cams to pilot this season even in the face of Cristela not working, that could be a good sign for LMS.<br /><br /><br />By far the most interesting thing to me, though, is The Amazing Race. We've thought that going to/from Friday & Sunday is a lateral move if you're a CBS show, and now we get another chance to see how true that is. Does start time consistency trump an NFL boost? Or is the Race a HIMYM/Big Brother-esque performer that didn't really get a football bounce anyway? I and my DVR will at least appreciate this scheduling (because lord knows I'm not usually home on a Friday night).<br /><br /><br /><br /><b>My pick:</b> The Amazing RaceSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-47439275900010808752014-09-05T11:19:24.925-04:002014-09-05T11:19:24.925-04:00I am in no way representative of the audience but ...I am in no way representative of the audience but I didn't watch TAR for the first time in years, mostly because Rachel and Brandon made me quit watching the first season they were on. Plus, several of the All Stars were coming back for a THIRD try. The casting really hit me wrong. Like I said, I don't know if I'm representative, but the casting could well have been part of the reason fell.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-67749201407484698792014-09-05T11:08:15.333-04:002014-09-05T11:08:15.333-04:00Last Man Standing : Barely renewed after tough neg...<b>Last Man Standing</b> : Barely renewed after tough negotiations, that never bodes well. Though, compared to dramas, budget cuts are easier masked in sitcoms. I think the best case is it keeps current A18-49+, which would put it at 1.20. Likely then <b>1.05</b> with worst at 0.90.<br /><b>Cristela</b> : Diversity and other feel good things aside, this is just another formulaic, bland sitcom. I doubt it can retain 100% of its lead-in, but if I expect lead-in to be so weak, then I can see Cristela being close to it, and my likely is <b>0.95</b>. I think it airs until Christmas, then in January is replaced by Fresh of the Boat. This assumes Tuesday 8 PM hour is given to some drama (or less likely, some reality show) at some point, which I'm pretty much sure will happen.<br />Though other scenario is in play if Selfie does good:<br />"Manhattan" and Cristela early cancellation, Selfie/FotB at Tuesday, LMS doubled up at Friday to burn it off. Then in spring some reality comes at Friday 8 PM (maybe even 2 hours of Shark Tank), finally. <br /><br /><b>The Amazing Race</b> : I'll be very specific here - best/likely/worse = 1.60/<b>1.50</b>/1.40. Surely it goes down on a lower viewed night, with a weaker lead-in. But I doubt it goes bellow what Undercover Boss would do - otherwise CBS would just leave UB here, and put The Amazing Race on the bench instead.<br /><br /><b>Dateline</b> : I have no idea.<br /><br /><b>Utopia</b> : My Tuesday prediction was likely 1.8, best 2.1, and worst 1.4.<br />Then I see Friday edition 20% lower than it - <b>1.45</b> with best/worst at 1.65 / 1.15.<br /><br /><b>Whose Line Is It Anyway?</b> : So, initially CW will run repeats of it at Friday 8 PM? If true, why then not air Hart of Dixie there? To get rid of it.<br />If there will be WLIIA originals in the fall after all - spring Friday episodes were at exactly 0.50 average. Similar competition, but viewing levels a bit higher in the fall. Then I think <b>0.55</b>.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-25106689288911757412014-09-05T10:19:55.775-04:002014-09-05T10:19:55.775-04:00i would be more able to see an upside to Amazing R...i would be more able to see an upside to Amazing Race if it hadn't fallen so much in the spring and become a sub league average show. But I think that it can manage around a 1.4<br />.<br />I'm sure Tim Allen took a big pay cut in season 2 of LMS and having too Again in season 3 probably held things up. That shoe is consistant!Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com