tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post1878655345794286274..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Best Case/Worst Case, Post-Olympic Week 2014: About a Boy, Mixology, Hannibal and more!Spothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-33281260060363237012014-02-25T16:52:27.763-05:002014-02-25T16:52:27.763-05:00The amount of unknowns with NBC is ridiculous. Eve...The amount of unknowns with NBC is ridiculous. Everything on Sunday has no chance. It goes new show new show new show with Dateline NBC leading off the night. Dateline can always extend to two hours if Dream Builders flops, but they can't air 4 hours if Crisis and Believe flop. If the new comedies fail, at least they can just switch the results show and them to save FireSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-27405025335720201672014-02-25T12:16:30.755-05:002014-02-25T12:16:30.755-05:00This is coming from the network that threw its han...This is coming from the network that threw its hangout comedies (Happy Endings & Don't Trust the B) against then-stronger hangout comedies (New Girl, Mindy Project) and Voice-fueled comedies (Go On, The New Normal), and has flopped with dramas on Thursdays at 8:00 for four/five years (depending on if you call FlashForward a flop for not getting renewed even though it graded as marginal). So at least the network is consistently crazy.<br /><br />At least with Tuesday, ABC has a very obvious solution: swap SHIELD and Goldbergs/Trophy Wife. Counterprogram with the only sitcoms in the 8:00 PM hour, get SHIELD into the easier 9:00 PM hour, and give Mind Games a stronger lead-in. The Goldbergs is basically getting a second season anyway, Trophy Wife is clearly dunzo, and SHIELD self-starts anyway with 7:30 affiliate lead-ins anyway so TW's weak numbers won't be a huge net negative.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-35679060525078630242014-02-25T10:38:38.715-05:002014-02-25T10:38:38.715-05:00NBC seems very reluctant in extending the voice on...NBC seems very reluctant in extending the voice on Tuesdays once the results shows start and rightfull so since there is not enough content for the extra hour and protecting the voice should be more important for them than protecting anything else they might have. They did not extend it last year when they were desperate for replacements when Ready for Love flopped, I don't think they will do it this year either. What did they air at 8pm last year after Ready for Love flopped? I am having trouble remembering for some reason.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-10534443235874549262014-02-25T04:51:50.103-05:002014-02-25T04:51:50.103-05:00I thought about moving it to Sunday to pair with T...I thought about moving it to Sunday to pair with TAR last season, so the comedy expansion could be into Wednesday with two singlecams isolated from the multicams elsewhere. (And as they thought Crazy Ones was anchor material...)Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-19810926489856562772014-02-25T04:48:56.051-05:002014-02-25T04:48:56.051-05:00Presumably an "OK" About a Boy gets audi...Presumably an "OK" About a Boy gets audibled into the Thursday mess in that situation? Or do NBC go with 90-minute Voice episodes leading into About A Boy at 9:30?Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-23866707001278466472014-02-24T18:53:18.977-05:002014-02-24T18:53:18.977-05:00I think Spot should seriously consider a themed po...I think Spot should seriously consider a themed post of the biggest scheduling idiocies of ABC. It's ridiculous.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-52719452670346245582014-02-24T18:52:50.589-05:002014-02-24T18:52:50.589-05:00I still cannot believe that ABC will try a second ...I still cannot believe that ABC will try a second new drama after a proven flop like Trophy Wife against stiff competition from both competing networks at 10pm. It's the definition of insanity.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-77310630375504217742014-02-24T18:51:54.074-05:002014-02-24T18:51:54.074-05:00I agree that Growing Up Fisher looks very ill advi...I agree that Growing Up Fisher looks very ill advised there and incompatible with everything. Another issue that NBC might have is that it might affect Chicago Fire, which would be the last thing they want after all the protection. I think that might actually put some additional pressure on About a Boy to overachieve because if NBC finds itself in a situation where About a Boy does ok, Fisher does awful and Fire does bad because of it, it's not inconceivable that they blow up the whole thing and put the voice at 9 to save Chicago Fire again.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-7978820099367408762014-02-24T18:48:59.177-05:002014-02-24T18:48:59.177-05:00I always love this a lot! Maybe you could even exp...I always love this a lot! Maybe you could even expand to summer? :P<br /><br />Here I go. I am not feeling particularly good about my predictions today but they do fall pretty close to yours in most cases, so I guess that's a good thing. Quickies:<br />- About a Boy: I really adored the pilot, I had somehow high expectations and it delivered. This being said, it's a dramedy and not a comedy. I love those and I am fine with that but a lot of people see to reject them and it's not a "mass" thing. At the end of the day, it's probably irrelevant though since it will all be about compatibility with the voice. Excluding its premiere, Go On averaged about a 2.40 in its fall post voice episodes. Year to year declines would put it around 2.14. It's spring though so I take it down an extra notch and I get a virtually similar to yours 2.08<br />- Growing Up Fisher: I have no interest in sampling this one, I think it looks simply too odd for me and most comments I have seen suggest it's even less of a comedy than About a Boy is. I can imagine a scenario of massive 9h30 rejection but I think it won't get that awful and it will look a bit like The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife. The New Normal was about 77% of Go On during fall but I see more rejection here than The New Normal have so I am bringing that to some 65%. A 1.35 and dunzo.<br />- Mind Games: I don't even know what to say anymore. I remember you saying that airing two new dramas out of Trophy Wife was odd, even for ABC, but it's actually happening. I predict it will flop, but the extent of the flop is surprisingly hard to grasp (I thought Killer Women was going to be a massive flop and it was, but I was still off by 26% from its actual result since I predicted a 0.9). Anyway, I will go with a generic 0.80 here, just because I lack any idea on how to estimate a more precise number. One step closer to firing Paul Lee!!<br />- Mixology: I actually disagree with you a bit on this one. Even incompatible comedies have scored decently behind Modern Family. Apartment 23 which was probably the most incompatible (RIP!!), had about 58% retention. Assuming Modern Family goes to the 3.2 this spring, which is even a bit pessimistic, it would give Mixology a 1.86. Super Fun Night arguably the biggest flop to air after MF, had a 53% retention even excluding premiere, which again would give Mixology 1.69 out of Modern Family. I think the result is probably somewhere in the middle. Because of those inevitable couple of sans MF original lead-ins, I will go a bit lower than the middle case and give it a 1.73 (I do think the downside potential you are predicting is all there, but I just do not expect it to do that awful)<br />- Hannibal: I do think the show has potential for some growth in plus due to the type of show it is and the critical acclaim it has gotten, even though that is probably exxagerated in our minds since it missed up all the big award shows anyway. Still, I also agree that Fridays with Grimm is a better situation than what it had last year. So I give it a nice 5% growth. However, I bump that down the usual 20% from airing on a Friday and I also add the year to year decline I am considering, all of which result in a 0.97, which is probably enough for another low priority renewal, even if it is for summer. <br /><br />As always, I tend to pass by reality. No idea at all on Survivor or TAR. The Voice is a mystery. I thought last season was amazing so I was surprised with the late season drops but well, I do think your positive factors are quite positive indeed, so I would tend to agree with you. It's always a mystery for me why does it drop so much after the blinds, because even though the blinds are a lot of fun for me, I really start to get into the show when the lives start, it's the best part for me. Guess I am the minority there.<br /><br />Also, I hadn't caught on that about Kitchen Nightmares, nice one. FOX is probably going to air it on Thursdays which is kind of odd but better than Rake. It's too bad because I was really rooting for Enlisted to be rescued!Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-2397969105208638332014-02-24T16:52:36.653-05:002014-02-24T16:52:36.653-05:00Probably I'm mistaken. I googled now and found...Probably I'm mistaken. I googled now and found:<br />"Set in a Manhattan bar, the 13 episodes will track one night in the lives of five young men and 15 young women looking for love."Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-5739291129162838672014-02-24T16:23:04.120-05:002014-02-24T16:23:04.120-05:00For the record, my average assumed a couple episod...For the record, my average assumed a couple episodes would have a repeat lead-in (as most Modern lead-outs have). Would've gone roughly a tenth higher if there are indeed 10 episodes that all air after originals.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-64818902320058083282014-02-24T15:27:05.451-05:002014-02-24T15:27:05.451-05:00ABC cracks me up, because they are bound and deter...ABC cracks me up, because they are bound and determined to have the next big hangout comedy and they are just as determined to surround it with family comedies and soaps.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-669681842968297142014-02-24T14:56:44.887-05:002014-02-24T14:56:44.887-05:00I also heard that Mixology only has a 10 episode o...I also heard that Mixology only has a 10 episode order, but sites like The Futon Critic are saying 13. A 10 episode order would actually help the sitcom since Modern Family also has 10 episodes left this season; Mixology shouldn't have to have rerun lead-ins unlike How to Live, Suburgatory, Don't Trust the B, and Happy Endings had over the past few seasons.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-11453437865414277432014-02-24T13:16:23.836-05:002014-02-24T13:16:23.836-05:00Reviews say Mixology feels "being there, done...Reviews say Mixology feels "being there, done that". Still I think it will do a tick or two better than you think. Merely because there's only 10 episodes - no time for average to sink to 1.45, not after probably initially being well sampled. But last 5 episodes should average bellow those 1.45, which is no-brainer cancellation.<br /><br />I'm tick or two more optimistic than you about Mind Games, too. And again, that's irrelevant. Because if I'm right, then it still would be way bellow Nashville, and any ABC midseason drama must beat Nashville to be considered at all.<br /><br />The Amazing Race and Survivor are safe, so I don't care about them. I mean, as long as CBS dramas keep failing at current rate, Amazing Race is safe for Sunday slot and Survivor for Wednesday slot.<br />BTW, some month ago I tossed idea about CBS moving one comedy block to Wednesday 8PM. That was stupid of me, I opened my mouth before actually thinking about what is in that timeslot currently. If it was some aging, already in syndication, easily dumpable to a weekend drama, then yes, why not try comedies there? But Survivor is still doing too solid for move to a weekend night. And CBS really has no good slot Mon-Thu to move it into.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-11805235873901179402014-02-24T12:15:34.489-05:002014-02-24T12:15:34.489-05:00NBC is most interesting to me. I think you're ...NBC is most interesting to me. I think you're spot on with Hannibal, but I see The Voice a bit higher, like 4.0/3.6. While About a Boy I see a bit south of 2.0 average, and not north of it. It seems kinda compatible with The Voice, but you're basically giving it 60% retention. I don't think it's that compatible, and Voice is pretty strong, so I expect more like 50ish retention. But other than that small 10% difference in prediction, I completely agree with your analysis - AaB smells very GoOnish, 1.9 raw A18-49 average to get it clear renewal, but late season True numbers to be warning sign of likely collapse in the fall, after inevitable move from under The Voice wing.<br /><br />Enough with splitting hairs, what I really doesn't agree is Growing Up Fisher. I don't see it compatible with About a Boy. Yes, both shows seem to go for aw effect, but AaB is 20-somethings comedy, and GUF family comedy. At least from what I understand. Plus I can see people feeling sorry for a blind man, and not really laughing much about that situation. So audience to abandon comedy that is not funny to them.<br />I can see it in low 1's already around 4th episode. After 7-8 episodes (and at 1.3 average) pulled in favor of Undateable or whatever. If NBC doesn't have replacement ready, then 13 (?) episodes run to finish very close to your worst case, at 1.15 or so.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-61831710186243712014-02-24T11:00:23.956-05:002014-02-24T11:00:23.956-05:00I almost think About a Boy is going to get a secon...I almost think About a Boy is going to get a second season if only because NBC does not want to completely strike out two seasons in a row for new comedies. It would have to bomb out hard a la Ready for Love for that to not happen. If that's the case, then Growing Up Fisher needs to actually earn ratings that merit a renewal. The same logic kind of holds true for Mixology: The Goldbergs is most likely to earn the "face-saving" freshmen sitcom renewal, so Mixology needs to show some merit. But what also cuts against Mixology is how it really pairs with nothing on ABC's schedule currently. Does the room know if anything that ABC's got in development for 2014-2015 would better fit content-wise with this show?<br /><br /><br /><br />Speaking of bombing out, that feels very likely with Mind Games. I think it's amazing that Kyle Killen has developed a broadcast drama every other year, at different networks to boot (Lone Star: Fox 2010; Awake: NBC 2012: Mind Games: ABC 2014). If he lands something at CBS in 2016 after three failures, that should be award-worthy.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com