Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/29/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (3.7) and NCIS (2.2) adjusted up. Best Time Ever was down to 1.9.
  • Week two was a mixed bag on ABC, where a ton of air came out of The Muppets (2.0) with a very disappointing 31% week two drop. But the returning players were more promising, with Fresh Off the Boat (1.7) down only two tenths despite a nearly one-point lead-in reduction. And Agents of SHIELD (1.7) had a somewhat surprisingly healthy return, returning at above any rating from the spring 2015 run (and only three tenths behind last season's 2.0 premiere). Quantico (1.0) added another point of sampling with a 10/9c encore.
  • On Fox, new comedies Grandfathered (1.5) and The Grinder (1.5) got off to modest but not disastrous starts, catching an unfortunate break as NBC changed its plans and left The Voice in the 8:00 hour. Scream Queens (1.4) didn't melt down in week two, instead posting a relatively typical 18% week two decline. 
  • CBS had by far the most promising newbie news as Limitless (1.9) was even with last week's premiere. This show was admittedly on the fortunate side of NBC's late scheduling change, avoiding The Voice and all original drama competition for another week, but you can't ask for better than 100%. NCIS: New Orleans (1.7) was the latest premiere week disappointment to hold its premiere rating in week two, even as NCIS (2.1) took a sharp post-premiere decline.
  • NBC's The Voice (3.6) had its best point of the season, rising to a season high on night four of the blind auditions, but Best Time Ever (2.0) gave back at least a tenth of last week's surge.

First Two Weeks, Life in Pieces


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.6
Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory (4.7)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (1.8), The Voice (3.5), Gotham (1.6), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.3)


Best Case/Worst Case: Criminal Minds, Code Black, Chicago PD


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

SpotVault - Quantico (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Blood & Oil (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Once Upon a Time (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Last Man on Earth (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Family Guy (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Simpsons (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Bob's Burgers (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Blue Bloods (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Amazing Race (CBS) - Fall 2015 Ratings





The Amazing Race
Fridays, 8/7c, CBS







SpotVault - Shark Tank (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Last Man Standing (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - 48 Hours (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - 20/20 (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Dateline (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/28/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: After removing a double-whammy of Monday Night Football preemptions, Dancing with the Stars swung all the way down to a 1.6 (but was still within striking distance of the same night last year, when it hit its outright season low 1.7). And Castle dropped four tenths to match last week's 1.2. On CBS, The Big Bang Theory (3.8) added two tenths again, while Life in Pieces (1.9) lost one, putting LiP at a very ugly 50% retention. The Voice (3.4) added a tenth as well.
  • Monday was probably the ugliest night of premiere week, and the week two preliminaries didn't offer much help. On NBC, Blindspot (2.6) still looks like the only Monday newbie winner, taking a very typical 16% week two drop as its lead-in The Voice (3.3) was down a tenth or two.
  • On CBS, The Big Bang Theory (3.6) crashed by roughly a point in week two, putting it way behind last year's 4.7 in week two. As for new lead-out Life in Pieces (2.0)... the good news is that the retention was pretty similar retention to last week, but the bad news is that retention stinks, and it's now out of a much weaker lead-in. This put it about on par with where The Odd Couple stabilized last spring, and it's only week two here. Scorpion (1.7) was another disappointment, joining the comedies in dropping 20%+ in week two, though NCIS: Los Angeles held tight at last week's 1.2 at 10/9c.
  • ABC looks kinda high, so there may be a Monday Night Football preemption, but in the prelims Dancing with the Stars (1.9) and especially Castle (1.6) were on the upswing. Castle was up a whooping 0.4 from last week, which should be enough to hold onto some growth even if preempted; maybe this show will be the one to pick up some of the naturally fleeing Blindspot viewers. UPDATE: ABC was preempted in both MNF markets, so stay tuned for finals!
  • On Fox, things got even rougher for Minority Report (0.9), but at this point the network should be more focused on keeping Gotham afloat. On that front, week two was reasonably promising, as its 1.6 matched last week's premiere.

Best Case/Worst Case: Agents of SHIELD, Grandfathered, The Grinder


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Monday, September 28, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Sunday 9/27/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a mixed bag on ABC's big premiere Sunday, starting with some disappointment and ending on some promise. At 8/7c, Once Upon a Time (1.8) could only get back to last season's finale numbers. It was always going to be down massively from last year's Frozen-fueled 3.5 premiere, but this was down four tenths from even the spring 2015 premiere.
    • It led into a soft start for newbie Blood and Oil (1.4), which skewed noticeably older than its Once lead-in (as it was actually up in total viewers). This show is one typical post-premiere drop from basically being on par with the Castles and Nashvilles in the world, which is not a good place to be on opening night.
    • But ABC had some silver lining in the 10/9c as fellow newbie Quantico (1.9) picked up noticeably at 10/9c. It's certainly got room to maneuver with this start, as it was miles above anything Revenge did in the hour last season. It doesn't really seem like B&O at 9:00 and Quantico at 10:00 was the right arrangement...
  • Fox's premiere night came without a national NFL lead-in, which led to absurd drops from last year's The Simpsons/Family Guy crossover premiere night. It was a very consistent night for the five shows (1.3/1.5/1.5/1.5/1.4), with 7:30 entry Bob's Burgers perhaps including a bit of regional NFL overrun. That level is good news for the live-action shows Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) and The Last Man on Earth (1.4), but not as much for the animated anchors. 1.5 would've been a below-average number even by Family Guy's weak spring standards.
  • And CBS burned its opening night national NFL lead-in on a two-hour series finale for former megahit CSI (1.8). It was a higher number than anything CSI did in its final season on Sunday, but doesn't seem to particularly justify the big lead-in and a lot of the premiere week promotional muscle.

Cablemetrics: Doctor Who, The Bastard Executioner, Switched at Birth, The Haves and the Have Nots


These numbers are current through Thursday, September 24.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • The only new entry this week is the veteran British import Doctor Who (0.87), which continued to show year-to-year growth for BBC America. Being up another 2% from last year's premiere is pretty impressive considering the year-ago premiere was introducing a new Doctor. If last year was any indication, this show won't stay in the cable upper echelon; the 2014 season shed half of that 0.85 premiere in the next two weeks. But maybe this season can hold up better since there shouldn't be as much "new Doctor" inflation in week one?

SpotVault - The Player (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Heroes Reborn (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Scandal (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Doctor Who (BBCA) - Fall 2015 Ratings





Doctor Who
Saturdays, 9/8c, BBC America







SpotVault - The Bastard Executioner (FX) - 2015-16 Ratings





The Bastard Executioner
Tuesdays, 10/9c, FX







SpotVault - South Park (Comedy Central) - 2015-16 Ratings


South Park
Wednesdays, 10/9c, Comedy Central







SpotVault - You're the Worst (FXX) - Fall 2015 Ratings





You're the Worst
Wednesdays, 10:30/9:30c, FXX







SpotVault - The League (FXX) - Fall 2015 Ratings





The League
Wednesdays, 10/9c, FXX







Sunday, September 27, 2015

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Friday 9/25/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The broadcasters offered up a relatively quiet opening Friday of the season, with NBC/Fox mostly not yet back in original action and the only newbie on the other two nets being held for next week. Of the two networks who were really trying, ABC was on top but CBS fared significantly better on a year-to-year basis.
    • CBS' Blue Bloods (1.3) matched last season's finale and was actually up a tenth vs. last year's premiere, while The Amazing Race (1.1) was even with last year's premiere. The loser in CBS land was Hawaii Five-0 (1.0), which became the latest procedural this week to open on a new series low (and two tenths behind last year's premiere). 
    • On ABC, Last Man Standing (1.1), Shark Tank (1.6) and 20/20 (1.3) were all down double digits from last year, with a The Muppets repeat (0.8) filling in at 8:30. Tank had the smallest year-to-year drop but was also being compared with a two-hour premiere starting at 8:00 last year.
  • On Fox's pilot encore night, Minority Report (0.7) actually went two tenths above Rosewood (0.5), which probably says something about the relative difficulties of their original timeslots. NBC had a 0.7 for a Best Time Ever repeat at 8:00, matching last week.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Thursday 9/24/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Scandal (3.3) and Heroes Reborn (2.0) each adjusted up, while Thursday Night Football went up to 6.0 to tie last year's game on premiere Thursday. This put the big four a combined 8% behind last year's opening Thursday.
  • ABC had a triumphant return for its three-hour TGIT lineup, with Grey's Anatomy (2.8) and Scandal (3.2) mounting massive rallies from their spring ratings. Considering how questionable Scandal's ratings were looking at times last spring, both shows can be marked down as big wins. Getting to near league-average drops from last year's huge premieres is a huge achievement.
    • I'm not gonna use the word "loser" so I will just say that if there was a "less-winner" in TGIT, it was sophomore How to Get Away with Murder (2.6), which seemed to illustrate that the limited series sophomore slump is alive and well, even with shows this strong. Without question, this is still a very strong number, but it still marks a new series low for a series that hadn't showed as much sign of late-season leakage as the other two (especially Scandal).
  • The only other network making an effort with entertainment programming was NBC, where Heroes Reborn (1.9) was very much on the map for its two-hour premiere. If it can hold anywhere close to this, NBC could be on the way to big improvements vs. last year's The Biggest Loser and comedies. However, newbie The Player (1.2) shed nearly 40% of the Heroes demo, and it looks pretty hopeless here unless the show turns out to be a far better fit with The Blacklist
  • CBS was in football mode and Fox repeated the Scream Queens premiere. The big four were preliminarily 20% behind last year's opening Thursday, but that number is going to be a lot better after finals since this version compares the CBS Thursday Night Football prelims with last year's combined CBS/NFLN finals.

SpotVault - Empire (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Rosewood (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Nashville (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Black-ish (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Modern Family (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Goldbergs (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Middle (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Law & Order: SVU (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Mysteries of Laura (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Survivor (CBS) - Fall 2015 Ratings





Survivor
Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS







Thursday, September 24, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Wednesday 9/23/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Survivor (2.5), Modern Family (3.2), SVU (1.8) and Empire (6.7) all adjusted up, with Empire up two tenths from the early prelims. Nashville (1.2) was down.
  • After a couple bitterly disappointing nights to begin 2015-16, Fox rebounded big-time on Premiere Wednesday with the return of Empire (6.5), which preliminarily tied the full two-hour rating that ended season one in March. (Though it technically will not go down as a series high, since Fox split the two episodes in finals and Empire had a 6.9 for the 9:00 hour.)
    • It was able to help 8/7c newbie Rosewood (2.4) to a rock-solid premiere number. Rosewood grew huge at the half (2.1 -> 2.7) and had exclusive Empire previews during the episode, so it may be artificial on some level, but it's probably about as good as Fox could've asked for here. 
  • The rest of premiere Wednesday was marked by a slew of familiar faces, and almost everything held up rather decently in the face of massive Fox competition. On ABC, The Middle (2.1) and The Goldbergs (2.4) each matched last year's premieres, while there were significant drops for Empire opponents Modern Family (3.1) and Black-ish (2.4). Still, the first three ABC comedies all hit their best ratings since early March. Black-ish had a 2.4 in April but other than that, it was that series' best rating since November! And Nashville (1.3) was just a tenth below last year.
  • CBS' Survivor premiere (2.5/2.4/2.4) and Big Brother finale (2.3/2.1/2.1) were each down in the teens from their 90-minute episodes on the year-ago evening.
  • And on NBC, The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) had a rather decent return by its low standards, posting its best rating since before daylight saving time, while Law and Order: SVU (1.7) was down 23% from the year-ago premiere but clearly got hurt big by Empire (as it surged to 1.9/2.0 in the 10:00 hour).
  • The big four were up 29% vs. last year's opening Wednesday. This is, of course, mostly about Fox, but none of the other networks individually were down even 20% year-to-year.

Best Case/Worst Case: How to Get Away with Murder, Heroes Reborn, The Player


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere.

SpotVault - The Muppets (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Fresh Off the Boat (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Scream Queens (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Limitless (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Black-ish, The Mysteries of Laura, Rosewood, Empire


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/22/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (3.5), The Muppets (2.9), NCIS (2.5), Limitless (1.9) and Scream Queens (1.7) all adjusted up, while Best Time Ever went down to 2.1. All these upticks brought the collective big four to within 3% of last year's premiere Tuesday.
  • ABC had the best newbie news on opening Tuesday, with a strong launch for The Muppets (2.8) at 8/7c that also helped boost sophomore Fresh Off the Boat (1.9) to a tie for its best number since it moved to Tuesday early in season one. The Muppets was not exactly the "Agents of SHIELD of comedy" launch that some predicted, but this is still a number ABC will happily take, doubling last fall's debut of Selfie in this tough hour.
  • The other mega-hyped Tuesday premiere didn't have nearly as much luck, as Fox's Scream Queens (1.6) came on the scene with a thud. It averaged a 1.7 at 8:00 and a 1.6 in the next three half-hours. It did skew pretty young, and it's possible this could still settle in as a timeslot improvement on last year's New Girl and The Mindy Project (though I expected it to be pretty front-loaded personally). But a hit it is clearly not, and the hope for the Fox fall schedule is dwindling fast. 

SpotVault - Minority Report (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings





Minority Report
Mondays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - Gotham (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Blindspot (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Voice (NBC) - Fall 2015 Ratings





The Voice
Mondays and Tuesdays on NBC







SpotVault - The Big Bang Theory (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Life in Pieces (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Scorpion (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Castle (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings





Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris
Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - Dancing with the Stars (ABC) - Fall 2015 Ratings





Dancing with the Stars
Mondays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - Sunday Night Football (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings





Sunday Night Football
Sundays, 8:30/7:30c, NBC





SpotVault - Thursday Night Football (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings





Thursday Night Football on CBS







SpotVault - CFB on Fox (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings





CFB on Fox
Saturdays, 7:30/6:30c, Fox





SpotVault - Saturday Night Football (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings





Saturday Night Football
Saturdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC







Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: The Muppets, Fresh Off the Boat, Limitless, Scream Queens


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Monday 9/21/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory adjusted up two tenths to a more acceptable 4.7, but that meant Life in Pieces looked far worse as it adjusted down to 2.6, marking just 55% lead-in retention. Dancing with the Stars was able to hold its 1.8 in finals, but the CW's lineup got slammed in finals and thus went well below its norm from the summer.
  • The 2015-16 TV season began with a familiar face on top of the Monday standings: NBC, whose 10/9c newbie Blindspot (3.1) was the clear winner among new show openers thus far. It handily beat the combined ABC/CBS ratings in the hour and was very comparable (or maybe even a bit better) on a historical-adjusted basis to previous successful openers in the hour like Revolution (4.1 in 2012) and The Blacklist (3.8 in 2013).
    • It came after a The Voice lead-in (3.5) that was 15% behind last year's premiere in the prelims, a rate of decline that has been pretty familiar for this show in the last couple years.

The Fall 2015 SpotVault Upgrades


After another summer of upgrading the SpotVault, here's all the info, much of it new this year, that will be on each show's table this year. The first half of this will be a boring key describing what all the numbers mean. Much of this info is copied from previous versions of this post, though some of the later descriptions (especially the year-to-year numbers) might be worth a read. At the end, a quick update on the overhaul of pre-existing pages and what else is still to come.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Life in Pieces, Scorpion, Blindspot, Gotham, Minority Report


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere.

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 9/18-9/20/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • After a successful 2014 airing in late August, the Primetime Emmy Awards returned to the last day of the summer season. Even with an NFL lead-in, the show averaged just 10.4 million viewers and a 3.2 demo rating from 8:00 to 11:00. Stay tuned for time zone-adjusted numbers which will account for west coast viewing, but it's probably going to be down a lot from last year's 15.59 million and 4.2 finals.
  • Most viewers instead opted for Sunday Night Football (9.3 at 8:30, 8.6 at 9:00, 7.9 at 10:00), which will be down from last week's 10.1 but probably remain on the year-to-year upside. CBS had a soft final Sunday edition of Big Brother (1.8) opposite all that competition, while ABC finished its summer season with little interest in a trio of Once Upon a Time repeats (0.4/0.4/0.4). 
  • In the Saturday prelims, ABC (0.8) and Fox (0.7) didn't get much out of college football games, which likely paled in comparison to Alabama's upset loss on ESPN.
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Cablemetrics: The Bastard Executioner, Z Nation, South Park, Fear the Walking Dead


These numbers are current through Thursday, September 17.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • FX kicked off its fall season with The Bastard Executioner (0.83), a new medieval drama from the creator of Sons of Anarchy. 0.83 is not a huge number, but FX has undoubtedly done worse in the recent past with the likes of Tyrant (0.61) and Fargo (0.80). And those comparisons look even better when you account for how rapidly cable same-day ratings are declining. We'll see how it holds, but it's at least started off in upper-echelon territory.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Sunday Vets: Once Upon a Time, Brooklyn 9-9 and more!


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/17/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: CBS/NFLN football adjusted to a 7.5, tying last year's premiere. The Jeff Dunham special was also up a tick to 1.3.
  • CBS' Thursday Night Football was back for season two with a preliminary 5.0 rating for the night and 5.3ish for the 8:30-11:00 game period. Both of these figures were slightly down from the 5.2 nightly/5.5 game prelims for the CBS opener last year. But CBS will surely cume its number with the NFL Network simulcast in finals, and it may catch up to last year after accounting for that as well as the fact that the game was close after primetime. (It adjusted to a combined 7.5 on CBS/NFLN last year.)
  • There wasn't a lot of broadcast resistance on CBS' opening football night, though NBC did get pretty decent mileage out of a night of specials. Jeff Dunham averaged a 1.2 in the 8/7c hour; a two-hour Mat Franco magic special followed, which started with Dunham's 1.2 but declined in each half-hour to a 0.9 by 10:30. ABC averaged a 0.6/0.6/0.4 for TGIT repeats, while Fox continued its pre-Scream Queens horror movie fest with Scream 3 (0.5).

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Friday Vets: Last Man Standing, Hawaii Five-0 and more!


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.

SpotVault - 2014-15 Yearly Index


This yearly index lines up primetime series' original Live+SD 18-49 ratings averages in the 2014-15 season. For now there's only a very limited selection of summer/cable shows. It will update again in October as more War of 18-49 updates are filled in.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Thursday Vets: Grey's Anatomy and Scandal


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.


Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/16/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Big Brother (1.9) adjusted up and the CW's two programs adjusted down. CNN's debate averaged 23.06 million viewers and a 4.94 in the 18-49 demo.
  • A night of summer finales was overshadowed by another huge rating for a Republican presidential candidates debate, this time on CNN. The 14.7 household overnight rating was a little behind the 16.0 for Fox News' debate in August, but still absolutely huge.
  • That meant not a lot of heat for the finales of America's Got Talent (2.1) and MasterChef (1.5), both of which noticeably trailed the year-ago respective 2.4 & 2.0 finales. CBS' Big Brother (1.8) and ABC's comedy repeats (0.8/0.7/0.9/0.7) were also below average on the last Wednesday of the summer.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Wednesday Vets: The Goldbergs, Modern Family, SVU and more!


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/15/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent adjusted up to 2.4 (a tenth behind last year's Tuesday finale), while Best Time Ever was down a tenth to 1.8. FX's new drama The Bastard Executioner opened at 2.12 million viewers and a 0.83 demo. It's a worse start than The Strain had last summer (1.18) but an improvement on some other recent FX premieres like Tyrant (0.61) and Fargo (0.80).
  • NBC began its fall rollout with the pre-premiere Tuesday debut of variety series Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris (1.9), which dropped close to a quarter of its 9:30 lead-in from America's Got Talent (2.2/2.5). It certainly wasn't completely rejected; after all, it's well above anything Hollywood Game Night did in the hour this summer. But if it drops in finals (which appears possible with a 2.0 -> 1.7 breakdown), it will only tie the premiere number of early summer newbie I Can Do That. So NBC's certainly gonna be hoping it can hold or grow as its lead-in presumably gets bigger with The Voice's premiere next week, because a tough move to the 8:00 hour looms after that.
  • With Thursday's Big Brother bumped due to football, CBS finally provided a peek at the Big Brother/Zoo pairing many have clamored for. While Big Brother was close to normal with a 2.0, which is double the usual NCIS (R) rating in the slot, Zoo preliminary posted a new low 0.9. It goes down as yet another example of just how incompatible Big Bro is with these CBS summer dramas.
  • ABC had a two-hour Dancing with the Stars recap (1.1) from 9:00-11:00, but perhaps the bigger story was the summer-high repeat ratings from Fresh Off the Boat (0.9/0.8) in the 8:00 hour. A week before the Scream Queens premiere, Fox had one more very low summer Tuesday with movie Scary Movie (0.5). 
 Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Tuesday pt. 1: Best Time Ever, NCIS and more!


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.

This is the one exception to the "veterans in pre-premiere week, rookies/sophomores in premiere week" rule; Best Time Ever premieres tonight, and I also moved the NCIS: NO prediction to this post just to keep next Tuesday from getting overly long.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/14/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Dancing with the Stars took a two-tenth hit in the finals, putting it at a slightly disappointing 2.1 that's down double digits year-to-year. It could only tie American Ninja Warrior (2.1), which got a finals uptick. ESPN's Monday Night Football doubleheader opened up on the year-to-year upside with a 5.9 for the opener (vs. 5.2 last year) and a 5.3 for the nightcap (vs 5.1 last year). Full table to come tomorrow.
  • The first big four entertainment series telecast of the new fall season, ABC's fall premiere of Dancing with the Stars (2.3), is pending an Atlanta Monday Night Football preemption and may adjust down in finals. At the moment, this 2.3 would be down just a tenth from last fall's premiere and above the 2.1 spring 2015 premiere. A 10/9c special called "#DanceBattle America" (1.1) retained less than 50% of its lead-in in the prelims.
  • NBC's three-hour finale of American Ninja Warrior (2.0) was pretty close to its summer average, building as high as a 2.3 at 10:30. This was a tenth above the three-hour telecast on this night last year. And Fox's So You Think You Can Dance closed up shop with a paltry 0.8, inching up from last week's series low but down enormously from the 1.3 finale on a Wednesday last summer.
  • CBS' final night of Monday summer repeats included soon-to-premiere The Big Bang Theory (1.6) at the beginning, but it is also likely to adjust down due to MNF.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Premiere Monday Vets: The Voice, The Big Bang Theory and more!


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season, laying out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, each show will be previewed on the day it premieres... with the exception of this week, when we're knocking out some of the numerous premiere week predictions a week early. Most of these posts will preview only premiere week veteran series today, with rookies and sophomores coming next week. Unless otherwise indicated, all shows previewed this week premiere exactly one week after the day of the post.

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 9/11-9/13/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Sunday Night Football opened its Sunday run with a preliminary 9.2 rating. This is likely to eke out a double-digit rating in the finals, and it will definitely beat last year's 9.0 final for the Sunday opener.
  • ABC's Miss America (1.5) was slightly down year-to-year. (My records have the 2014 edition at 1.7 but it looks like it may have adjusted down to 1.6 due to the Nielsen glitch.) 
  • CBS' lineup including Big Brother (2.1) was bumped by NFL overrun. 60 Minutes and BB may not have started at their scheduled 7:30 and 8:30 times in all markets (though I think they did in mine), so let's wait for finals! 
  • On Saturday, ABC averaged a preliminary 2.2 with Oregon at Michigan State football, similar to the 2.1 this game averaged last year on Fox (when it was the season high for CFB on Fox by a very wide margin).
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Cablemetrics: The League, You're the Worst, Awkward, The Last Ship


These numbers are current through Thursday, September 10.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a good news/bad news night for FXX's premiere comedies. The League was back with a 0.49, up 20% from last year's premiere, and continued its long tradition of laser-focusing on the 18-49 demo like almost nothing else on TV. (Its 86% skew is nearly 20 points ahead of anything else on the table, and it means that only about 100,000 of its 720,000 total viewers were out of the 18-49 demo.) But the acclaimed sophomore You're the Worst (0.16) had weak one-third retention in its move from FX and set a new series low.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Sunday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Friday, September 11, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Friday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/10/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The NFL roared back with another dominant start to the season on Thursday. It averaged a 9.5ish preliminary from 8:30 to 11:00, up about a half point from the prelims over the same period last year. Since last year's opener later adjusted up to 10.2, another double-digit result is likely in the finals here.
  • It was a mixed night for everything going against the big game. CBS' Big Brother (1.9) was even or down a tick, while Under the Dome wrapped the series at its usual 0.8, but at 8/7c The Big Bang Theory (1.6) actually had one of its biggest repeats of the summer. (It may have gotten some pre-tune benefit since it wasn't technically facing the game itself.) Fox's Boom! (0.5) went out on the low end, dominated by a solid Shark Tank repeat (0.9) on ABC. 
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Thursday, September 10, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Thursday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/9/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • On finale night for The Carmichael Show (1.0/0.9), the comedy gave back all of last week's growth and then some, matching Mr. Robinson's finale night three weeks ago when lead-in America's Got Talent was a bit weaker (1.6 three weeks ago, 1.8 last night). Both comedies will end up with almost exactly the same very low-1's average, leaving the picture more unclear than ever. (Carmichael seems to have the buzz/critical advantage, which may make a difference when it's this close.)
  • Also on NBC, the short Last Comic Standing season ended with a 1.1, down both from last week and from last year's 1.4 finale (though it may adjust up to match last week).
  • On Fox, Home Free (1.1) wrapped up with what would be another new series high. Even if it ticks down in finals, the last few weeks seem to have solidified this as the least weak of Fox's unscripted newbie offerings this summer.
  • CBS' Big Brother (2.1) may be able to adjust up and snap a three-week streak of 2.1 on Wednesday, while the two-hour finale of Extant (0.8/0.7) bounced back from last week's low but really did nothing unusual as it waits to hear its fate.
  • CW's America's Next Top Model (0.6) had a big night in the often unreliable CW prelims; if it can hold, this is Top Model's best raw number since the 2013 season premiere.
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Wednesday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/8/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent (2.1) was up and Hollywood Game Night (1.2) down.
  • America's Got Talent (2.0) dipped on its penultimate Tuesday, though it was once again above the same night last year. The finale of Hollywood Game Night (1.3) held at last week's rating but could adjust down.
  • CBS had an extra hour of Zoo at 10/9c (maybe to make the primetime lead-in a bit larger on Stephen Colbert's debut night?) and both hours stuck at 1.0.
  • ABC's Extreme Weight Loss stayed at 0.6 for another one-hour 10/9c telecast, though in this case that was enough to build from an Agents of SHIELD repeat at 9/8c (0.4). And Fox's Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (0.7) bounced back a bit on the last night of a disappointing revival run. 

Career A18-49+ Sortable Table Thru 2014-15


Welcome to another entry in the Massive Sortable Tables Collection! This is a sortable table with a lot of A18-49+ numbers that can be used to evaluate the full run of a series. This includes Career A18-49+, the sum of each individual season's historical-adjusted A18-49 rating, as well as how many times each show went over some of the A18-49+ label thresholds. You can hover over category names at the top of the table for an explanation.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Tuesday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/7/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Typically viewing levels are back to pretty normal levels on Labor Day itself, but we'll have to see this time, as it was a bad broadcast night all around. ESPN's huge football game may have also been a factor.
    • NBC's American Ninja Warrior (1.6) crashed to a season low and Running Wild (1.0) had its worst showing of the season with an original ANW lead-in.
    • Fox's So You Think You Can Dance (0.7) also went down to a new low.
    • And ABC didn't see any heat for the special 9/8c finale of Bachelor in Paradise (1.4) (though After Paradise (1.1) was a bit improved at 10/9c).
  • CBS aired its annual fall preview special (1.0) at 8:30, leading out of a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.3). Last year the preview had a 0.8 leading out of a 1.2 TBBT repeat on Labor Day 1.4 leading out of a 2.0 TBBT on a Thursday. (The 1.4 out of a 2.0 was two years ago.)

Monday, September 7, 2015

The Fall 2015 Preview/Review, Monday


Welcome to The Fall Preview/Review, a look at how each broadcast network fared on each night of the schedule in 2014-15. These are basically the Schedules Plus Updates from last year, except now arranged by day of the week and with a teeny bit more focus on what's to come in fall 2015. 2014-15 year-to-year changes are in parentheses, while "VsAvg" compares 2014-15 to the full historical average and "Rank" ranks 2014-15 against all available previous occupants. Each network name links back to its now updated Schedules Plus post for this day of the week.

Schedules Plus, Explanations & Disclaimers


Updates to the Schedules Plus posts are coming this week, and I'm putting all of the explanatory stuff in one separate post so I don't have to update it on each one of those individually going forward. Aside from the first bullet point, most of this stuff was already in these posts, so you probably don't need to read it all if you've been following along.

Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 9/4-9/6/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Saturday Night Football held the preliminary 2.7, putting it 42% above last season's opener. Big Brother (1.7) and Bachelor in Paradise (1.1) both adjusted up on Sunday.
  • The few Sunday broadcast originals stayed on the air for low-viewed Labor Day weekend, which was not a good thing for the ratings of Big Brother (1.6) and Bachelor in Paradise (1.0/1.1). Big Bro took a half-point week-to-week hit for this telecast last year, and it will be at least that big this time compared with last Sunday's 2.2. Bachelor in Paradise was down at least two tenths itself. A lot of the Sunday cablers also tried to power through this weekend (including TNT's The Last Ship finale), though Fear the Walking Dead sat out.
  • Also on Sunday, NBC won the night with a preliminary 1.1 for four hours of NASCAR.
  • Saturday brought a promising start to college football, as ABC's Wisconsin/Alabama averaged a preliminary 2.7 from 8:00 to 11:00 that will surely outrate last year's 1.9 Saturday Night Football premiere. NBC averaged a prelim 1.1 with Texas and Notre Dame.

Cablemetrics: Fear the Walking Dead, Falling Skies, Awkward


These numbers are current through Thursday, September 3.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fear the Walking Dead (4.10) was down 17% in week two. This is basically an average scripted series week two drop, which is probably a good thing for a premiere that had so much hype and brought so many fans from a different series. Again, it really depends on your perspective; on the one hand, The Walking Dead itself hasn't been this low in over three seasons. On the other, even if it just settles as half of Walking Dead's norm, that's still very easily within broadcast megahit territory.

Sunday, September 6, 2015

The Ultimate SpotVault, Supernatural


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

The Ultimate SpotVault, The Vampire Diaries


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

Saturday, September 5, 2015

The Ultimate SpotVault, Bones


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

The Ultimate SpotVault, Criminal Minds


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

Friday, September 4, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/3/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Full table is below. Most of the truly awful results came in the 8:00 hour, with all big four networks down at least two tenths week-to-week and Food Fighters plummeting from last week's 0.9 high all the way to a new low 0.5! NBC's Dateline (0.8) was also way below normal and Mistresses (0.6) went out on the low end, but not at a new low.
    • The few semi-good results: CBS' Big Brother (2.0) and Under the Dome (0.8) held pretty close to recent results, while Rookie Blue (0.7) was actually at its best rating in over a month for the season/series finale.
  • With all 16 NFL preseason week four games airing on Thursday, tons of local preemptions make last night's preliminary ratings unusable. So... see you after finals!

Best Case/Worst Case: Football & Newsmagazines


The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season! This is a "sneak preview" edition, just looking at some of the soon-to-premiere news and sports series that are not exactly the main draw on this site. Since the interest in these shows is relatively low, and since I haven't completely finalized the format, both the tables and the writeups will be a somewhat condensed version. Don't worry, each show's previous timeslot occupants and best case/worst cases will be back once we get into entertainment programming, starting on September 14.

The Ultimate SpotVault, The Big Bang Theory


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

The Ultimate SpotVault, NCIS


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/2/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Big Brother adjusted up to its familiar 2.1, while Last Comic Standing (1.2) and Celebrity Wife Swap (0.9) both ended up having pretty strong nights after they gained a tenth each. On the downswing were the 9:00 Carmichael Show (1.2), The Middle (0.8) and a particularly ugly night for Extant, hitting its first 0.6 since it moved to 9:00. Home Free held onto its new series high 1.0.
  • On a high-end night for many shows, perhaps the most interesting was NBC's rookie comedy The Carmichael Show, which surged by two tenths in each half-hour to 1.3/1.1. A show that looked weaker than Mr. Robinson on premiere night now suddenly looks stronger; if the 1.3 holds after finals, that would beat all six Robinson points. We'll see what happens in its third and final week, but it certainly seems to have thrown its hat in the ring if a renewal is possible. Carmichael's lead-in America's Got Talent (1.7) also upticked this week, and Last Comic Standing stayed at 1.1 at 10/9c.
  • ABC and Fox were also winners on this night, as The Middle (0.9), The Goldbergs (0.9), Modern Family (1.2) and Black-ish (1.0) all hit or tied their best numbers since early June. And MasterChef (1.5) and Home Free (1.0) were on the upswing as well, with what would be a new series high for Free if it holds.
  • Only CBS with Big Brother (2.0) and Extant (0.7) and the CW with America's Next Top Model (0.4) and A Wicked Offer (0.2) did no better than usual. (But they weren't really worse than usual, either.)

The Ultimate SpotVault, Grey's Anatomy


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

The Ultimate SpotVault, Modern Family


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons. This table also has the lead-in's A18-49+ for each episode, so you can see which episodes had the most and least support.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/1/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent was up to 2.3 and Hollywood Game Night down to 1.3.
  • On NBC, America's Got Talent had another late-season 2.2, staying way on the upside year-to-year. It led into the ever-inconsistent Hollywood Game Night (1.4), which surged back from last week's low and will be up multiple tenths week-to-week even if it adjusts down.
  • Zoo inched back down to another 1.0 for CBS, while Extreme Weight Loss (0.6) and Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (0.5) were unable to rebound from last week's lows.

Spotted Ratings Plans for September


September is finally upon us. Doing some reshuffling of the deck this year, so in order to answer questions about some of this site's usual September features, I'm laying out the schedule for the month here.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 8/31/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC's American Ninja Warrior (2.1) was back from a week off with a bang, tying its season high again. And it helped Running Wild back to 1.2 after its struggles last week.
  • The CW also had great news with Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.7) surging to its best number in over a year, and easily its best this summer. Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.6) was also on the high end.
  • On ABC, Bachelor in Paradise (1.5) gave back last week's crazy surge, but that still left it tied for the second-best number in series history. The Whispers signed off with a 0.7, which was somehow the show's best number in a month. Fox's So You Think You Can Dance (0.8) was the other big loser, inching down to tie its series low.

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