Friday, May 29, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/28/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Aquarius (1.1) and The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.5) adjusted up.
  • NBC's summer drama Aquarius kicked off with 5.7 million viewers and a 1.0 demo rating. This is not awful by summer standards, and the '60s-set drama didn't skew that much older than its Dateline lead-in (6.4 million viewers and a 1.2). However, the half-hour breakdowns don't bode well for the future, as it went 1.3 -> 1.0 -> 1.0 -> 0.9 over the four 30-minute segments. Also, NBA Finals competition looms next week, and there's the fact that anyone who's truly interested can watch future episodes online now.
  • On Fox, Wayward Pines (1.2) held onto its week-two spike and beat Aquarius head-to-head, getting an assist from the return of Bones (1.2) for a run of summer originals. Bones had its best rating since the first spring episode, perhaps benefiting from lightweight competition.
  • Two more hours of 500 Questions wrapped up the season in typical fashion, averaging a 1.0 in the 8:00 hour and 1.1 at 9:00. CBS' repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.4) was Thursday's top program but dropped a couple tenths from last week.

The War of 18-49, Grimm



SpotVault - The Briefcase (CBS) - Summer 2015 Ratings





The Briefcase
Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS







SpotVault - Bullseye (Fox) - Summer 2015 Ratings





Bullseye
Wednesdays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - I Can Do That (NBC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





I Can Do That
Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - America's Got Talent (NBC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





America's Got Talent
Tuesdays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Fox) - Summer 2015 Ratings





Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?
Tuesdays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Extreme Weight Loss (ABC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





Extreme Weight Loss
Tuesdays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - The Island (NBC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





The Island
Mondays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - American Ninja Warrior (NBC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





American Ninja Warrior
Mondays, 8/7c, NBC







Thursday, May 28, 2015

The Question, Thursday 5/28/15: Is This the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius?


NBC begins the scripted portion of its summer season with tonight's two-hour premiere of Aquarius, a David Duchovny drama about the Charles Manson saga in the 1960s. The show has gotten some industry attention because of NBC's decision to mimic the streaming service model by releasing the entire season online. But this won't happen until after tonight's premiere, so it shouldn't be a negative for tonight. The whole thing was probably just a play for attention, but one that the casual viewer is unlikely to notice.


Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/27/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The night's two biggest winners, MasterChef (1.6) and The Briefcase (1.4), each picked up another tenth in finals.
  • CBS got into the summer original game with Wednesday 8/7c reality series The Briefcase (1.3), which had one of the network's more promising starts in this role that bridges the end of the regular season with the start of Big Brother. It was even with the 2012 premiere of Dogs in the City (1.3) and well above 2013's debut of The American Baking Competition (1.0).
  • Fox had a more middling debut from its own new entry, the 9/8c reality series Bullseye (1.1). But they did have a major silver lining in that for the second straight year, MasterChef (1.5) shook off a bad premiere rating to grow significantly in week two. Even this point is down more than average year-to-year (it grew to 1.8 in week two of last season), but the season may not be in as much trouble as it appeared last week.
  • The penultimate 500 Questions (1.0) inched down for ABC, while NBC had modest interest for an I Can Do That encore (0.7) and the two-hour iHeartRadio Country Festival (1.0).

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/26/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC kicked off another season of America's Got Talent (2.6) with a slightly larger-than-average drop from last year's 3.0 premiere. It also had a decent launch from unscripted lead-out I Can Do That (1.8), which was an improvement on last season's premiere of The Night Shift (1.6).
  • On Fox, there was very little interest in the return of Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (0.8), which only about matched the Plus it was doing for its last regular season run on Friday in 2008-09. Hell's Kitchen (1.1) also slumped.
  • ABC had another OK result from 500 Questions (1.1), which handily beat 5th Grader at 8/7c. But the two-hour return of Extreme Weight Loss (0.9) was very weak, down a massive 31% from last year's premiere.
  • And the CW began a three-week summer run of straggling originals for iZombie (0.6). Like back in week four, the show was even week-to-week despite not having an original The Flash lead-in, a much more promising look than the usual post-Flash delivery.

The War of 18-49, New Girl



Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/25/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: 2 Broke Girls (1.1) inched up. History had some older interest but a modest demo rating for the premiere of miniseries Texas Rising, which averaged just over 4 million viewers and a 0.6 A18-49. 
  • NBC began its summer season with the premiere of American Ninja Warrior (1.8), whose growth in recent seasons has officially made it a part of the summer elite. This rating was up two tenths from last year's 1.6 Memorial Day premiere, though last year it rose from there and ended up averaging a 1.8 for the season. Ninja led into a middling premiere for the latest Bear Grylls reality series The Island (1.2), which was a bit behind the debut of Grylls' Running Wild (1.4) in July last year.
  • ABC was the only other network in originals, as game show event 500 Questions (1.1) was back in originals after a couple nights off and rose to its best rating since the premiere on Wednesday. It was of no help to The Bachelorette (1.6), which took another big Memorial Day drop (but was still even year-to-year).
  • In repeat land, CBS' regular season lineup (0.8) led by 2 Broke Girls (1.0) and Mike and Molly (1.0) edged Fox's encore of the two-hour MasterChef premiere (0.7).

Spotted Ratings, Memorial Weekend Roundup 5/22-5/24/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Saturday saw a couple decent sports results, as NBC's Game 4 of the NHL Western Conference Finals (0.9) was up a tenth from the year ago NBC game, while Fox opened its summer Baseball Night in America franchise (0.6) up two tenths from last year's premiere (and tying last year's season high).
  • Sunday saw NASCAR's Coca-Cola 600 (1.4) down a couple tenths year-to-year. Memorial Sunday is far less-viewed than any Sunday in the regular season, which meant originals of A.D. The Bible Continues (0.7), American Odyssey (0.4) and Battle Creek (0.6) did "well" to stay kinda steady. HBO's Game of Thrones was not so lucky in plummeting to a 2.5, the show's lowest rating since season three.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

The War of 18-49, Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?



SpotVault - 500 Questions (ABC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





500 Questions
Wednesdays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





Celebrity Wife Swap
Wednesdays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - MasterChef (Fox) - Summer 2015 Ratings





MasterChef
Wednesdays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Fox) - 2008-09 Ratings


Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?
Fridays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Fox) - 2007-08 Ratings


Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?
Thursdays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Fox) - 2006-07 Ratings


Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?
Thursdays, 8/7c, Fox







Friday, May 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/21/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • That Terrence Howard sure knows how to bring viewers back for week two! Just like his megahit Empire from four months ago, Wayward Pines (1.2) was on the upswing in week two, picking up two tenths from last week's debut. And its lead-in, an encore of the pilot (0.8), was just two tenths behind that episode's first-run rating a week ago. Certainly at least some of this can be explained away by a drastic decrease in competition (it faced Scandal and The Blacklist finales last week), but this at least opens the possibility that there could be some heat here.
  • The night's other original series 500 Questions (1.0) had a reasonable second outing hold, staying in the 1's for all four half-hours. But that seems unlikely to continue for tonight's hour, up against low holiday Friday viewing levels.
  • The only other original programming was NBC's little-watched three-hour charity event Red Nose Day (0.8).
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/20/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Finals upticks for Survivor (2.3) and Modern Family (2.3) kept them tied as the top program on the last day of the season.
  • On the last day of the 2014-15 regular season, ABC premiered a couple more summer series, the new game show 500 Questions (1.2) at 8/7c and returnee Celebrity Wife Swap (1.0) at 10/9c. For 500 Questions, this is a pretty reasonable start by summer filler standards, though it will be a challenge to hold on well since much of this seven-night run will be positioned around the low-viewed Memorial Day weekend. Wife Swap, meanwhile, was even with the first episode of its 2013-14 run, which aired after Trophy Wife in mid-April (though the show usually did better in the summer with an Extreme Weight Loss lead-in).
  • The downside for ABC was that these incompatible surroundings brought down the finales of Modern Family (2.2) and Black-ish (1.6) to a pretty ridiculous degree. This marked the first time Modern ever went below that 2.5 on Thanksgiving Eve in season one, and it wasn't even close.
  • CBS wrapped up Survivor (2.2) with no heat for the two-hour finale and a 1.8 for the reunion at 10:00. Opposite Survivor, Fox had a weak two-hour return from summer staple MasterChef (1.2). This was 20% behind the already low 1.5 that began last season on Memorial Day; that 1.5 ended up being the outright lowest point of the season, and it was consistently around 2.0 in the second half of the season. So unless this number was similarly depressed by the Survivor competition, the franchise is setting up for a very ugly year-to-year trend.
  • NBC had the only big four dramas with a slightly up The Mysteries of Laura (1.1) and slightly down Law and Order: SVU (1.4) and Chicago PD (1.4). CW's finale of Supernatural (0.7) was even despite a repeat lead-in (0.3).

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/19/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The CW's shows indeed ended up at last week's 1.5/0.6 Also, The Voice (2.9) went up, bringing it to -12% year-to-year. And the 8:00 Hell's Kitchen went up to put both hours at 1.3.
  • Just like last year, head-to-head two-hour finales from The Voice (2.8) and Dancing with the Stars (2.3) limited the shows' ability to spike relative to the Monday finales. Still, it was a season high for DWTS (maybe an outright one after finals) and The Voice's best rating in over a month. On a year-to-year basis, The Voice will end up down in the low-to-mid teens (actually one of its better points in recent weeks), while DWTS was preliminarily down just 0.1.
  • ABC also offered up an extra hour of The Bachelorette (1.9) at 8/7c, which edged NBC's The Voice recap (1.6).
  • Despite the reality logjam, two hours of Hell's Kitchen on Fox (1.2/1.3) were unfazed. And the only scripted originals came on the CW, with the finale of The Flash (1.4) leading into iZombie (0.7). It's quite possible these shows will end up even with last week's respective 1.5/0.6 after accounting for The Flash running a couple minutes into the 9:00 hour.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 5/17/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (1.3) and The Billboard Music Awards (3.8) ticked up. AMC's series finale of Mad Men (1.08) was more than 50% ahead of the show's average over the past couple years. The last time it had a higher rating was the season six premiere on 4/7/13 (1.14).
  • ABC beat the combined broadcast competition on the last Sunday of the season with the Billboard Music Awards (3.7), up a couple tenths from last year to the show's biggest rating since 2003. Leading in was Tom Bergeron's finale on America's Funniest Home Videos (1.4), which did no better than its usual solid late-season delivery.
  • The scripted shows on broadcast took minor hits. Finale night for Fox's comedy lineup saw The Simpsons (1.2), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.1) and Family Guy (1.3) all tie or hit their lowest ratings since the depth of event season in mid-February. (The year-to-year trends were brutal, as Simpsons/Guy hit a respective 1.6/2.0 on this night last year.) 
  • NBC's A.D. The Bible Continues (0.8) and American Odyssey (0.4) and two hours of CBS' Battle Creek (0.6/0.6) all inched down again.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 5/16/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • With ABC airing an extra hour of The Bachelorette on Tuesday, the usual DWTS finale night recap (0.5) got pushed to Saturday, where it did less than a third of last spring's Tuesday rating (1.7). It aired alongside a little-watched Billboard Music Awards preview (0.4). Cable once again had the top Saturday network, this time with NASCAR on Fox Sports 1 (0.82).

Spotted Ratings, Friday 5/15/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Amazing Race (1.1) once again dodged a new season low by upticking in the finals. Probably due to preemptions, The Messengers adjusted down to its usual 0.2.
  • It was a promising third and final episode of this initial Beyond the Tank run (1.5), as it tied its Shark Tank (1.5) lead-in and inched up week-to-week.
  • NBC had a decent finale from Grimm (1.1), which got this high for only the third time in its nine episodes at 8/7c. Meanwhile, CBS finished up The Amazing Race (1.0) on what would be a new season low, though it's had a prelim 1.0 and adjusted up earlier in the season. CBS then did no better than procedural repeats with a 0.6/0.7 for two hours of an Academy of Country Music special.
  • After spiking in its return to 8/7c, CW's Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3) gave it all back in its second try at the slot. The Messengers (0.3) went up a tick.

SpotVault - Wayward Pines (Fox) - Summer 2015 Ratings





Wayward Pines
Thursdays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - The Bachelorette (ABC) - Summer 2015 Ratings





The Bachelorette
Mondays, 8/7c, ABC







Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/18/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: DWTS (2.3), Mike and Molly (1.9) and Stalker (1.3) adjusted up.
  • It was a promising two-hour start for the latest season of The Bachelorette (2.1), which beat the show's last two premiere ratings. Last summer's Bachelorette only got as high as 2.1 for the After the Final Rose following the finale. It led out of the performance finale of Dancing with the Stars (2.2), which was even with last week's two-hour episode.
  • CBS aired its last scripted original episodes of the regular season to surprisingly good results, as 2 Broke Girls (2.0) shot well ahead of its other deliveries since the Scorpion finale. Mike and Molly (1.8) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.4) also went out on an up note, though the Stalker series finale (1.2) inched down.
  • The final performance edition of The Voice (2.6) was up two tenths week-to-week (if still down almost 20% year-to-year), but The Night Shift (1.2) didn't benefit. Fox's The Following went out with another two-hour edition (1.0/0.9).

Friday, May 15, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/14/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Blacklist (1.6) upticked to its highest number in four episodes (albeit still 38% behind last year's post-Voice finale), while Reign (0.3) went down a tenth.
  • Fox's summer drama Wayward Pines opened with 3.8 million viewers and a 1.0 demo rating, matching its lead-in from Bones (1.0) in the demo. While this is certainly an improvement on last year's Gang Related launch (0.9 with a much bigger lead-in and less competition), it's still not enough to label as promising. We'll see what happens when the competition clears out next week.
  • Finale night on the other networks brought a slew of small drama upticks. ABC's TGIT closed up for the summer with Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and Scandal (2.3) each up just a tenth week-to-week, putting Scandal down about a third vs. last year's April finale. The Blacklist (1.5) was up a tenth for NBC, as was CW's The Vampire Diaries (0.7) for Nina Dobrev's final episode.
  • Sandwiched among The Big Bang Theory repeats (2.0 at 8:00, 1.9 at 9:00, 1.8 at 9:30), The Odd Couple (1.8) closed out season one matching last week's episode with an original TBBT lead-in. This makes last week's awful 1.8 seem more like the aberration, as this 1.8 is closer to what would be expected in the context of the previous 2.0's and 2.1's after originals. It's still hard to say when and where this show will be seen again...

First Two Weeks, The Preliminary Results


I've compiled the results for our season-long First Two Weeks game... but with a couple shows still in limbo, there are a couple different contingency plans here.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

The Question, Thursday 5/14/15: Are Viewers Pining For Wayward Pines?


Fox rolls out the first of the summer's new dramas tonight, the 10-episode mystery series Wayward Pines. Perhaps the most interesting thing about this show from an industry perspective is that it stars Terrence Howard, the lead of Fox's recent mega-smash Empire. Wayward Pines was filmed in late 2013 and early 2014, before Howard had even committed to Empire, much less filmed a pilot. But the Wayward Pines promo after the Empire finale still amusingly referred to Pines as Howard's newest project.

I don't think Howard will move the needle to a huge degree, but he can't hurt. And the concept seems at least somewhat more appealing than Fox's summer Thursday drama effort last year, the gritty Gang Related which only opened at 0.9. However, Fox has left this show on the shelf for a long time, and nothing on the network has cracked even a 2.0 since the Empire finale. Its lead-in Bones will barely break 1.0, and this premiere date means the show has to face multiple drama season finales, including Scandal and The Blacklist. I think it can build on its Bones lead-in, but only by a bit. Are viewers pining for Wayward Pines? That's The Question for Thursday, May 14, 2015.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/13/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (1.8), Survivor (2.3), SVU (1.6) and American Idol (1.7) went up. Black-ish (2.0), Nashville (1.2) and Supernatural (0.7) went down.
  • The penultimate season of American Idol limped to the finish with just a 1.6 two-hour average. Last year, the show was still capable of spiking in relatively typical Idol fashion for the finale (growing from 2.1 for the penultimate Wednesday to a 2.6 finale). This time, it was up only two tenths week-to-week, though it did grow quite a bit from 8:00 to 9:30 (1.4 -> 1.8). But the overall number was a very hefty 38% behind last year's finale.
  • ABC wrapped up the seasons of its bookend hours with steady The Middle (1.7), The Goldbergs (2.0) and Nashville (1.3). The middle hour, which will return next week, saw slight declines from Modern Family (new season low 2.7) and Black-ish (2.1).
  • NBC got some finale heat from Law and Order: SVU (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.6), while CBS had Survivor (2.2) and another couple 1.2's from CSI: Cyber.
  • Pending a Chicago preemption, the CW's Supernatural (0.8) had its best number since moving back to Wednesday in March, while the finale of Arrow had another 1.0.

2015 Upfront Answers, The CW


Last week, I asked "Upfront Questions" to preview each network's fall 2015 schedule. With the schedule now official, here are the "Upfront Answers"!

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/12/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.0) will have to wait for 2015-16 to drop below a rounded 2.0 for the first time. American Idol (1.3) and The Flash (1.5) also went up a tenth, while iZombie (0.6) was down.
  • ABC's two-hour Agents of SHIELD (1.3) closed season two in surprisingly ugly fashion, dropping to a new series low that was at least two tenths behind what the show has consistently done since returning from hiatus. The Marvel vs. DC crowd will be quick to point out that SHIELD lost outright to The Flash (1.4), which had yet another amazing late-season rating.
  • Fox had a special performance hour of American Idol (1.2) at 9/8c leading out of Hell's Kitchen (1.2). Idol went almost 30% behind last year's 1.7 Tuesday performance finale (which was a week later).
  • For the second straight night, The Voice (2.1) had a minor rebound for NBC, while the one-hour finale of Undateable (1.3) tied last week's live episode and Chicago Fire (1.5) inched down.
  • And CBS closed up shop on Tuesday for the summer with NCIS (1.9) hoping for a finals uptick to avoid its first trip into the ones. NCIS: New Orleans (1.7) narrowly rose, while CBS unloaded another original CSI: Cyber (1.2) at 10/9c.

2015 Upfront Answers, CBS


Last week, I asked "Upfront Questions" to preview each network's fall 2015 schedule. With the schedule now official, here are the "Upfront Answers"!

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 5/10/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Once Upon a Time (1.8) adjusted up, though still trailed the year-ago finale by over 20%. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.3) also inched up to become the outright biggest Fox program; I think this was the first time it beat its original Simpsons lead-in.
  • There wasn't much finale heat for ABC Sunday; the two-hour season finale of Once Upon a Time was at the 1.7 that has become the show's late-season norm, while the series finale of Revenge (1.3) inched up again (returning it to its typical level from the fall).
  • Fox was consistent but low with The Simpsons (1.2), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2), a repeat of Family Guy (1.2) and a special 9:30 Bob's Burgers (1.2). CBS' The Good Wife finale also hit a 1.2; low as that might sound, it was the show's outright highest rating since it returned from hiatus in March. And NBC's A.D. The Bible Continues (0.9) was not able to make it out of the regular season without dipping below 1.0.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 5/9/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Broadcast primetime finally got a taste of the NBA Playoffs, as ABC's Warriors/Grizzlies game (1.9) was just a tenth behind the ABC game on the same night last season.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 5/8/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.6) and the second half of Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) adjusted up.
  • Week two of Beyond the Tank (1.4) was down two tenths week-to-week, leading out of a Shark Tank (1.5) that was down a tenth.
  • Just in case the Hawaii Five-0 finale ratings actually mean anything to CBS' decision at this very late stage, it wasn't an ideal way to go out: the two hour finale tied a season low 1.1 in the 9:00 hour and dropped to a 1.0 at 10:00. The Amazing Race, with which Five-0 may be competing for a fall spot, was also at a season low 1.0.
  • The CW quietly pulled Cedric's Barber Battle, and the local programming lead-in significantly benefited an original Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.5) in its return to 8/7c. But the 8:30 Whose Line? repeat (0.3) and 9/8c drama The Messengers (0.2) didn't show improvement.
  • NBC's Grimm (1.0) inched up from its first 0.9 last week, while Scream (0.4) did significantly worse than Fox's other recent Friday movies.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

2015 Upfront Answers, ABC


Last week, I asked "Upfront Questions" to preview each network's fall 2015 schedule. With the schedule now official, here are the "Upfront Answers"!

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/11/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Dancing with the Stars adjusted up to 2.2, down just a tenth year-to-year. The second half of The Following was also up to put both hours at 1.0. 
  • The penultimate performance Monday brought minor rebounds for both The Voice (2.4) and Dancing with the Stars (2.1). DWTS remained at very close to a league average decline year-to-year (it had a 2.3 on this night last year), while The Voice's y2y was -20%, a bit better than last week but still well behind the season trend as a whole. Better lead-ins didn't help the finale of Castle (1.4), down a massive 33% from the year-ago finale, and The Night Shift (1.2).
  • CBS had another low-end post-Scorpion Monday, as 2 Broke Girls (1.6) and Mike and Molly (1.7) were close to even, Stalker was back from a week off with another 1.3, and it dragged NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) to a preliminary new low.
  • Fox dipped to 1.0 for two hours of recently axed The Following, while The Originals and Jane the Virgin each stayed at 0.5 for their season finales.

The Question Results Through 4/5/15


Here are the standings through April 5 for the ratings prediction game The Question:

Monday, May 11, 2015

2015 Upfront Answers, Fox


Last week, I asked "Upfront Questions" to preview each network's fall 2015 schedule. With the schedule now official, here are the "Upfront Answers"!

Sunday, May 10, 2015

2015 Upfront Answers, NBC


Last week, I asked "Upfront Questions" to preview each network's fall 2015 schedule. With the schedule now official, here are the "Upfront Answers"!

Friday, May 8, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/7/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.7) went up two tenths but was still down 24% vs. last year's finale. Grey's Anatomy (2.1) had a rare downtick.
  • With no NFL Draft and a very rare night at this time of year with no NBA playoffs, CBS' season finale of The Big Bang Theory (3.5) still managed only a minor week-to-week bounceback. And it was a revealing night for The Odd Couple; a 1.8 at 8:30 is bad (will likely be 50% retention or less after finals), and then it dropped to just a 1.5 in the 9:00 hour. It was always pretty clear this show was no Mom, but this was a bad week even by TOC's previous standards. A weaker 9/8c occupant also helped derail the 9:30 TBBT repeat (1.4) and an original Elementary (1.1).
  • On ABC, TGIT got another week removed from the big Grey's Anatomy events and was closer to its late-season norm, though Grey's (2.2) was still a little higher than what it was doing a month or so ago. Scandal (2.2) remained pretty modest.
  • After an ugly week vs. the NFL Draft, several of last week's dramas mercifully rebounded. The Blacklist (1.4) got some of last week's collapse back even as the installation of a Law and Order: SVU repeat (0.6) brought little improvement at 8/7c. Bones (1.1/1.1) was narrowly up for two original hours, and CW's The Vampire Diaries (0.6) dodged a second straight 0.5.

2015 Upfront Questions, The CW


Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, examining the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. This post tries to lay out the reasonable possibilities rather than spending a lot of time committing to one, but I am including "Spot's Answer" in each section to try to be a little clearer about where I'm leaning. They're not really "official predictions" (more like a hybrid of predictions/recommendations) but you can consider them that way if you want.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: CW True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW


Thursday, May 7, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/6/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (2.0), Nashville (1.3) and Arrow (1.0) were up. A big night from Black-ish (2.2) was tempered somewhat, while Criminal Minds (1.8) and American Idol (1.4) looked rather brutal and Supernatural (0.6) also lost a tenth.
  • ABC was toward the lower end with veteran sitcoms The Middle (1.7), The Goldbergs (1.9) and Modern Family (2.9), making an above average Black-ish (2.3) look a lot better by comparison at 9:30.
  • On CBS, Survivor (2.1) was at a preliminary new season low, but it often adjusts up so it may tie last week. Meanwhile, the Criminal Minds (1.9) season finale and CSI: Cyber (1.2) had little/no rebound even against considerably weaker crime dramas on NBC.
  • NBC saw The Mysteries of Laura (0.9) dip into the aughts for just the second time, while Law and Order: SVU (1.2) and Chicago PD (1.4) both had well below-average outings just a week after spiking for the crossover events.
  • American Idol (1.5) gave up a tenth, while the CW had another 0.9/0.7 night with Arrow and Supernatural.

2015 Upfront Questions, CBS


Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, examining the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. This post tries to lay out the reasonable possibilities rather than spending a lot of time committing to one, but I am including "Spot's Answer" in each section to try to be a little clearer about where I'm leaning. They're not really "official predictions" (more like a hybrid of predictions/recommendations) but you can consider them that way if you want.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: CBS True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW


Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 5/5/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.0) adjusted up while iZombie (0.6) was down a tenth.
  • Even with a fast-hemorrhaging lead-in from The Voice (1.9), a one-hour live episode of NBC's Undateable (1.3) noticeably improved the 9/8c hour week-to-week, up two tenths at 9:00 (1.4) vs. last week's 1.2 Undateable and up four tenths at 9:30 (1.2) vs. last week's One Big Happy. Chicago Fire stayed at its usual 1.6.
  • On CBS, though NCIS (2.0) was even at 8/7c, things completely fell apart from there with NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) tying its series low and Person of Interest (1.1) somehow having a complete meltdown on finale night. That was two tenths behind PoI's previous low!
  • On ABC, Agents of SHIELD posted another relatively normal 1.5 the week after the new Avengers movie, though this one may grade a little better since Dancing with the Stars (1.4) was lower at 8/7c. Forever (1.1) went out with a high-end rating by second half of the season standards.
  • Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and finale of New Girl (1.1) each ticked up.
  • The CW had another stellar late-season showing from The Flash (1.4) and another 0.7 from iZombie.

2015 Upfront Questions, ABC


Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, examining the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. This post tries to lay out the reasonable possibilities rather than spending a lot of time committing to one, but I am including "Spot's Answer" in each section to try to be a little clearer about where I'm leaning. They're not really "official predictions" (more like a hybrid of predictions/recommendations) but you can consider them that way if you want.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: ABC True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 5/3/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Secrets and Lies (1.8) indeed eked out another new series high with a finals uptick. Family Guy (1.7) also went up a tenth.
  • Finale night for ABC's Secrets and Lies (1.7) had another good showing but was preliminarily not able to build any further on its big uptick for the penultimate episode. (Though with a 1.7/1.8 breakdown it should be pretty close to an upward adjustment.) With Once Upon a Time (1.7) also even, amusingly the show that benefited most was the penultimate episode of cancelled Revenge (1.2).
  • After faring well last week, Fox's 8/7c hour of The Simpsons (1.3) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2) had a particularly soft night. Family Guy (1.6) and The Last Man on Earth (1.4) were even.
  • NBC and CBS stayed very low, though A.D. The Bible Continues (1.1) at least had the series' first non-drop. CBS could not completely stop the bleeding as nothing was up and The Good Wife (0.9) inched into fractional territory for the first time.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 5/2/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Despite a very good late afternoon lead-in from the Kentucky Derby, match play golf on NBC was a significant downgrade on recent hockey ratings for NBC Saturday. TNT more than doubled the leading broadcast series with the decisive game of the Spurs/Clippers NBA series (1.88).

Spotted Ratings, Friday 5/1/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Beyond the Tank (1.6) went up to match Shark Tank (though, thanks to RJK, its retention in unrounded numbers was still the same 96% seen in prelims).  The Amazing Race (1.1) adjusted up to dodge a new season low, while Cedric's Barber Battle (0.2) went down in an apparently fatal adjustment (as the network trades it out for a Whose Line? repeat starting this week).
  • It wasn't exactly "Bruce Jenner: The Interview," but ABC still had a second straight successful all-unscripted Friday. Shark Tank (1.6) was down a couple tenths in the 8/7c hour (probably unavoidable given last week's Jenner pre-tune), but new spin-off Beyond the Tank (1.5) had almost full retention at 9/8c. It's not quite a fair comparison since the ABC Friday comedies air at 8/7c without a Tank lead-in, but for now this was very close to Last Man Standing's season high and well above the season-long average.
  • The CBS procedurals had a nice bounce-back from last week's struggles opposite Jenner. Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) added a tenth and the finale of Blue Bloods (1.3) surged all the way back to its average for the season. But The Amazing Race (1.0) dropped to a season low.
  • Elsewhere, Grimm (0.9) is eying a preliminary new low and the CW's lineup was even, which meant another 0.3 for Whose Line Is It Anyway?

SpotVault - Beyond the Tank (ABC) - 2014-15 Ratings





Beyond the Tank
Fridays, 9/8c, ABC







Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/4/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UDPATE: 2 Broke Girls (1.7) and Mike and Molly (1.6) went up a tenth.
  • The season finale of Fox's Gotham had a nice increase to 1.7, its best number since returning from hiatus in mid-April and perhaps a good sign for the future. But lead-out The Following inched down to 1.1.
  • It wasn't a good late-season evening for the singing competitions, as The Voice took a sizable hit to a new performance low 2.3. The Monday show held tight at 3.0 in the closing weeks last year, so this is its worst year-to-year point of the season by a pretty wide margin. Dancing with the Stars (1.9) also hit a new season low. The shows' lead-outs The Night Shift (1.3) and Castle (1.4) held on at 10/9c, perhaps benefiting from no CBS drama competition.
  • CBS' comedies continued to struggle in a post-Scorpion world, with 2 Broke Girls (1.6) unable to come back from last week's plunge and Mike and Molly (1.5) taking another sizable hit. CBS slightly improved on last week's final 90 minutes with a David Letterman tribute special (1.5).
  • The CW's Jane the Virgin preliminarily inched up to its first 0.5 in awhile, but a 0.4/0.5 breakdown means it is not there by a wide margin.

2015 Upfront Questions, Fox


Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, examining the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. This post tries to lay out the reasonable possibilities rather than spending a lot of time committing to one, but I am including "Spot's Answer" in each section to try to be a little clearer about where I'm leaning. They're not really "official predictions" (more like a hybrid of predictions/recommendations) but you can consider them that way if you want.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: Fox True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW


Monday, May 4, 2015

2015 Upfront Questions, NBC


Part two of the upfront preview is the SCHEDULE-centric portion, examining the big-picture scheduling questions each network faces on each night in the final week before its upfront. This post tries to lay out the reasonable possibilities rather than spending a lot of time committing to one, but I am including "Spot's Answer" in each section to try to be a little clearer about where I'm leaning. They're not really "official predictions" (more like a hybrid of predictions/recommendations) but you can consider them that way if you want.

Last week's Power Rankings were the SHOW-centric portion, in which I drilled more into the merits of individual shows: NBC True Power Rankings

Other Upfront Questions: NBC | Fox | ABC | CBS | CW


Friday, May 1, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/30/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.4) was up two tenths, Bones (1.0) up one to avoid a new low, and American Crime (0.9) down one. That meant Blacklist's 1.2 and TVD's 0.5 stuck.
  • On Grey's Anatomy (2.5/2.6), the two-hour aftermath of last week's events went slightly lower than the 2.8 for the event itself. However, the two-hour period was virtually flat with last week since there was no Scandal to bring down the average (whoda thunk we'd be saying that?).
  • After a couple years of the whole CBS lineup seemingly getting steamrolled by the NFL Draft, this time it played out more like last year: a hit to The Big Bang Theory (3.2) at 8/7c but no real impact on fellow comedies The Odd Couple (2.0) and Mom (2.0). The lessened effect may be in part because the household overnight for ESPN's coverage was a 5.1, down 25% year-to-year. And the rating was likely more front-loaded than ever with no particularly compelling storyline after the first couple picks.
  • The dramas had a much tougher time on Draft night; The Blacklist (1.2) had a number that is simply horrifying leading out of another invisible Blacklist repeat (0.5), while Elementary (1.2) was on the low end for CBS and Fox's Bones (0.9) and finale of Backstrom (0.7) each inched down as well. On the CW, The Vampire Diaries preliminarily notched its first ever 0.5.

First Two Weeks, The Messengers


One last softball to end the season! Results should be up sometime in the next couple weeks.

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 0.278
Lead-in: Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.4)
Competition: Shark Tank (1.5), The Amazing Race (1.1 overall, 1.0 at in 9:00 hour), Dateline (R) (0.8), Movie: Bad Teacher (0.6 overall, 0.6 in 9:00 hour)


CW True Power Rankings, May 2015


Every weekday for the next three weeks, this blog will have a meaty piece of coverage surrounding the annual schedule releases. It starts this week with the season's final edition of the True Power Rankings, the SHOW-centric half of the upfront preview, digging deep into the merits of individual shows by network. Next week come the Upfront Questions, the SCHEDULE-centric look ahead to upfront week. The following week, the schedules come out, and with them come the Upfront Answers.

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