Thursday, October 31, 2013

CBS True Power Rankings, October 2013


As November sweeps kicks off, it's time for this season's first full edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True, offering some thoughts on the ratings strength of the shows. As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up, which weeds out inflated early episodes that don't really matter anymore. This year, I'm also including the year-to-year trend for the season to date and the "skew" (or percent of the total audience within the 18-49 demo). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through October 27.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW


Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/30/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Game 6 of the World Series gave Fox a 39% bounce relative to Game 5, but that's pretty typical for a Game 6 under the current scheduling by day (see chart below). We've talked in the past about how the WS has "have" and "have-not" matchups; the verdict on this World Series is that it essentially put up "have-not" numbers (albeit better than the 2012 ones) even though it had what should've been a better matchup, which perhaps goes to show the damage that's been done to the sport in recent years. And the result means no Game 7 on Thursday. It's a bit of a relief for the other networks, who will already be dealing with a Halloween-related viewing depression.
  • The World Series appeared to have a bit of an effect on other networks, especially CBS (down across the board) and the CW, where Arrow and The Tomorrow People dipped again. My gut says that baseball shouldn't be affecting the CDub shows that much, but the good news is we get to see how they come back next week. 
  • On ABC, a Modern Family repeat at 9/8c led to a relatively normal (or after finals, maybe slightly above normal) drop from Super Fun Night, though it looks worse in light of how well The Goldbergs held up with a similar lead-in drop the previous night. And 10/9c occupant Nashville followed its depressed lead-in down again.

ABC True Power Rankings, October 2013


As November sweeps kicks off, it's time for this season's first full edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True, offering some thoughts on the ratings strength of the shows. As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up, which weeds out inflated early episodes that don't really matter anymore. This year, I'm also including the year-to-year trend for the season to date and the "skew" (or percent of the total audience within the 18-49 demo). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through October 27.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW


Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/29/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC's been looking for something, anything, that would help them get behind some of their disappointing new comedies. And they may have found it on this night, as The Goldbergs was steady despite a 1.5-point drop in lead-in as Agents of SHIELD went into repeats. And Trophy Wife actually picked up by two tenths. There were a couple other factors here (Fox's comedy block wasn't on, and Halloween episodes are often good for ratings), but overall the results can probably be called mildly positive, which is far better than anything these shows (or the other new comedies) have posted in the last couple weeks.
  • Fox tried unsuccessfully to keep The X Factor lights on during World Series season with a special Tuesday episode, which (like last year) went significantly below the Wednesday norm. This episode was over a third below last year's Tuesday tryout on 10/23/12 (2.3) and didn't do any better than the usual Tuesday comedy block ratings.
  • NBC suffered a bit more on Tuesday with The Biggest Loser and a two-hour The Voice down again; maybe the added reality competition, weak as it was, contributed a bit.
  • And opposite The Voice, Person of Interest had a weak showing even as the NCIS duo were even to barely up, though the upward adjustment in finals softened the blow a bit.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 10/27/13 (2013-14 Week Five)


The World Series crashed the top of the True Top 25 charts, with all four games ranking in the top eight. However, it didn't go any higher than #3 as usual leaders Sunday Night Football and The Big Bang Theory stayed in their usual spots. (Though TBBT nearly edged out a very weak SNF game.) We'll see if Game 6 and a possible Game 7 can go high enough to take the crown in week six. In a down week for Scandal, Grey's Anatomy had a rare turn with the True drama crown.

We dropped off to just three new shows on the list in week five as Sleepy Hollow took its first of two straight weeks off, though Mom and The Crazy Ones were both knockin' on the door. (And the Dracula premiere was not that far off itself.) Grimm's premiere made it two regular Friday programs, joining Shark Tank (which hit a True season high thanks to impressively tying its raw numbers high after a repeat The Neighbors).

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/27/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • On the highest-viewed night of the season to date, Game 4 of the World Series was down by a tick from the fourth and final game of last year's Series, mostly because the game built big toward the conclusion.
  • The Series has somewhat lucked out because the NFL has offered some truly terrible primetime games against it this year, including a season low Sunday Night Football that saw Green Bay easily handle Minnesota. That number meant that even with The Walking Dead (6.8) dropping a bit again in week three, it was able to hold off SNF for the first time.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 10/26/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Against the World Series (up 18% vs. last year's third game), ABC's Saturday Night Football Ohio State posted a terrible number. After a string of good games to the start the season, SNF has caught the blowout bug as Ohio State won by 49. It started at an OK 1.6 in the 8:30 half-hour, but viewers bailed immediately as it dropped to a 1.2 at 9:00 and below 1.0 in the 10:00 hour. The Series, meanwhile, went up to a 3.5 in the 10:00 hour.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

SpotVault - Dracula (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Dracula
Fridays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - Grimm (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Grimm
Fridays, 9/8c, NBC







SpotVault - The Carrie Diaries (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Carrie Diaries
Fridays, 8/7c, CW







Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/28/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Unlike on some other nights, there didn't seem to be any real World Series effect on the Monday entertainment options, though CBS bubbler Mom gave back a bit of its surge from last week. That was a bit disappointing given CBS had its highest number yet from the 9/8c The Big Bang Theory repeat in the week before so-called "The New" Mike and Molly takes over the slot.
  • After finals, it was indeed a very close race between Game 5 of the World Series (4.1) and ESPN's Monday Night Football (4.2). But even a season low for a regular season football game on cable was able to eke it out over a late-World Series game, at least among 18-49ers. (Baseball had about four million more viewers total.)

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/25/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • There's just something about that last Friday before Halloween on NBC. For the third straight year, the network got a nice number out of Grimm on this night, and the premiere of Dracula was a bit of a pleasant surprise in fully retaining that Grimm number... at least for now. Keep in mind that Grimm has only done better than 1.8 a couple times in its Friday history (both of which happened to be this week on the calendar in previous years).
  • The CW was also in premiere mode with the return of The Carrie Diaries, which brought a 0.3 A18-49 and 780,000 viewers to its Friday debut. Pretty bad, though I don't know how anyone who followed its usual 0.4 Monday ratings from last spring could've reasonably expected any better from a Friday move.
  • The other Friday originals were pretty steady against the new competition, and 20/20 was up a good bit, perhaps benefiting from no longer having to air against Dateline. (Dateline is now at 8/7c leading into NBC's drama block.)

SpotVault - The Walking Dead (AMC) - 2013-14 Ratings


The Walking Dead
Sundays, 9/8c, AMC







SpotVault - American Horror Story (FX) - Fall 2013 Ratings


American Horror Story
Wednesdays, 10/9c, FX







SpotVault - Homeland (Showtime) - Fall 2013 Ratings


Homeland
Sundays, 10/9c, Showtime







SpotVault - Reign (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





Reign
Thursdays, 9/8c, CW







Friday, October 25, 2013

The Question, Friday 10/25/13: Will Grimm and Dracula Bite Into the Friday Audience?


For the second time in three years, NBC is waiting till the Friday before Halloween to premiere Grimm. After a few uninsipiring tries on other nights, Grimm now seems firmly entrenched as the respectable centerpiece of Friday night, and this time it's got company. NBC wants to extend Grimm's genre mojo into a second hour as Jonathan Rhys Meyers stars in new lead-out Dracula. It's a cheap co-production, but there's at least some compatibility here, which has not been the case for most of what has aired alongside Grimm on Friday. Will Grimm and Dracula bite into the Friday audience? That's The Question for Friday, October 25, 2013.


Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/24/13


WHAT MATTERS:

  • NBC's first week in a post-Welcome to the Family world was far from a game-changer. Though the repeat of The Voice was a big improvement in the 8:30 half-hour (preliminary 1.5), it was only a small improvement in the whole 8:00 hour, and it was of no demographic help to the still pathetic Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show.

  • The good news for CBS: it seems the major collapse from 9:30 to 11:00 last week was just a blip, as Two and a Half Men and Elementary bounced back. The bad: they sprung another leak, this time among the new comedies, as The Millers in particular was down significantly, and it got even worse after finals saw it adjust down and TBBT go up three tenths. Worth noting that at least in the preliminary True numbers, it went behind both Mom and The Crazy Ones this week.

  • The CW's Reign was down two tenths in week two, now below half of The Vampire Diaries (which had one of the first two-tenths-up adjustments I can remember on the CDub). 
  • After finals, it's worth noting Scandal was down quite a bit this week, but it may be just another blip.
  • Game 2 of the World Series went 14% below the 4.2 for Game 1 and just a tick ahead of 2012's second game. While there's usually some slippage from Game 1 to Game 2, this is kind of a disappointing showing considering the game was closer this time.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/23/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox took over Wednesday with Game 1 of the World Series. With the return of the Boston Red Sox to the Series, it went 17% above last year's number, but it only managed to tie the 4.2 from the Cardinals/Rangers opener two years ago.
  • The CW continued to come back to earth after its dreamy performance last week, with Arrow returning to premiere numbers and The Tomorrow People dropping again in week three (though it was mercifully adjusted up in finals to 0.7). Maybe baseball has something to do with it, but there's a decent chance Fox could have an even bigger game on the night next Wednesday.
  • After a decent uptick last week in John Munch's final episode, Law and Order: SVU headed back onto its sharp post-premiere decline trajectory, now down by nearly half from that massive premiere a month ago. This episode was down over 20% year-to-year.

First Two Weeks, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland


WEEK ONE
ABC's spin-off of Once Upon a Time provided the latest disappointing premiere number in ABC's long-problematic Thursday 8/7c hour, managing just 5.82 million viewers and a 1.7 demo. That was just a tick ahead of the prior week's ABC occupant, a Scandal recap special, and it finished in third place for the hour behind CBS' comedy block (5.1/3.0) and Fox's The X Factor (2.0). And it was well below the low 2's level that most of ABC's previous failed premieres have managed here.



Wednesday, October 23, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Tomorrow People


WEEK ONE
The CW's newbie The Tomorrow People started off with a 0.9 demo, adjusting up in finals to match its lead-in from Arrow (0.9). It was actually right on the verge of being a 0.8, as it averaged 1.084 million 18-49ers (or an 0.853 rating). Still, this was a reasonably positive start for The Tomorrow People given the somewhat disappointing Arrow numbers.



Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/22/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was mostly a very steady Tuesday for broadcast. However, it seems ABC's Agents of SHIELD still hasn't quite steadied, though its lead-out The Goldbergs had its first uptick. The way things are going for the ABC comedy newbies, that may be enough for a back-order. The 10/9c repeat of Shark Tank vastly improved on last week's Scandal repeat.
  • NBC's Tuesday lineup is getting a little weaker as The Biggest Loser was down three ticks post-premiere, and Chicago Fire is starting to look a bit iffy for a post-The Voice program.
  • After kicking off the CW's big 8/7c surge last week, The Originals returned to its timeslot premiere number from two weeks ago; we'll see if the other shows follow suit later this week.
  • On Fox, Brooklyn Nine-Nine had a nice first outing after its post-Super Bowl berth was announced, hitting its best number since week two and pulling back ahead of Dads.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 10/20/13 (2013-14 Week Four)


The hierarchy at the top remained the same in this week's True Top 25, though Sunday Night Football had a larger lead than usual thanks to an exorbitantly high mid-season number.

This week we went down to four new shows as The Crazy Ones dropped off for the first time, while a growing Shark Tank became the first regular Friday series to crack the top 25 this season. (And Undercover Boss was less than a tenth of a point away.)

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/20/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC had a much huger than usual game from Sunday Night Football, which featured Peyton Manning's return to former stomping grounds Indianapolis. It was about on par with the very early season numbers, something football rarely pulls off this far into the season.
  • ABC had another brutal Sunday as Once Upon a Time took a big dip following three relatively steady weeks. Revenge was also down another tenth.
  • Week two of The Walking Dead (7.1) came down by almost 15% from last week's eye-popping premiere, but it was still the series' second-biggest episode and still well bigger than any non-Dead entertainment episode this season.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 10/19/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC's Top 5 duel between Clemson and Florida State started with huge potential; its 2.2 rating in the opening half hour was the second-highest this season. But the game turned into a massive blowout, so the final game rating actually went below Saturday Night Football's season average. A lot of those viewers may have switched over to the ALCS, which spiked big in the 10:00 hour and ended up winning the night.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/18/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • On the last Friday before NBC starts airing original scripted programming on the night, Friday's top unscripted draws both had big nights. Shark Tank rebounded to tie a season high, while Undercover Boss had the even more substantial spike, going well above all previous results this season.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/21/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Final numbers wiped away most of the pre-emption-fueled week-to-week movement on CBS and the CW, though Mom ended up with a pretty encouraging number even after the downtick. It was up three tenths from last week to its best number since the premiere.
  • ABC and NBC were mostly down with The Voice, Dancing with the Stars and Castle, but The Blacklist managed its first steady week. Bones got a 10% bounce for its wedding episode.

First Two Weeks, The Originals


WEEK ONE
The CW's The Vampire Diaries spin-off The Originals actually aired for the first time on Thursday, but I'm not counting that as the premiere since it was apparently mostly a repeat of the backdoor pilot. Its first totally original episode came on the next Tuesday, when it brought almost all of that Thursday audience over. It averaged a solid 0.9 demo, tying as the third-biggest show of the CW's week (with Wednesday pair Arrow/The Tomorrow People). Given it faced two of broadcast's biggest dramas (Agents of SHIELD and NCIS), this was a pretty good showing.



Sunday, October 20, 2013

The Question Results Through 10/17/13


Here are the results for the ratings prediction game The Question through October 17:

Friday, October 18, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/17/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • For now, anyway, it seems the CBS and NBC comedies have finished collapsing. Newbies The Millers, Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family all made minor week-to-week rallies (while The Crazy Ones dropped to even after finals). However, CBS continued leaking further in the second half of the evening as Two and a Half Men and Elementary each dipped by multiple ticks.
  • The CW made it three straight crazy rallies in the 8/7c hour as The Vampire Diaries (1.3) was way up to season high levels. Did the affiliates start airing The Walking Dead at 7:00 or something? Given how much stronger the 8:00 hour was, it was a very mediocre start for Reign at 9/8c. It's not a totally unworkable number, but it's gonna have to hold very well from here if it wants to keep this slot away from the midseason dramas.
  • ABC had very mixed news as the amazing Scandal swung back up in the 10/9c hour, but Once Upon a Time in Wonderland looks pretty much dead and Grey's Anatomy inched down again even as competing young females draw Glee went on hiatus.

Ad Rates: The 2013 Takeaways


Earlier this week, one of the most important articles of the year in TV media hit the presses: the full series list of upfront ad rates, this time posted by Anthony Crupi at AdWeek. As is worth noting every year, they're just estimates, but they're the closest thing we usually get to hard data about what shows are actually bringing in the bucks, and how it differs from the ratings picture that we use to try to approximate that.

Every year I put all of the shows that returned to "approximately" the same timeslot into a spreadsheet and try to look at some of what you can't really pick up on from just a cursory glance at the huge table. These posts seem to get shorter every year because those takeaways are so often the same. But that's probably a good thing! But here are a few quick thoughts on this year's numbers:

First Two Weeks, Sean Saves the World


WEEK ONE
The last premiere in NBC's revamped two-hour comedy Thursday featured the return of Will & Grace's Sean Hayes in Sean Saves the World. But it was quickly clear he wasn't saving anything. Sean premiered to a measly 1.4 demo. Though it built noticeably on its 1.1 lead-in from the Welcome to the Family premiere, it was still mired in fourth place in the timeslot, dropping even behind a struggling Glee (1.7 at 9:00).



Thursday, October 17, 2013

The Question, Thursday 10/17/13: Does the CW Forecast Call for Heavy Reign?


The first two newbies in the CW's fall slate were Broadcast Scheduling 101; spin off your strongest existing brand, and go for pure compatibility. Tonight, the CDub rounds it out with an all-out risk, applying their soapy sensibility to the historical fiction genre with the Mary, Queen of Scots drama Reign. I'm kinda hoping it premieres well as I can see what they're going for with the pairing with The Vampire Diaries. However, TVD hasn't done that well, and most of the buzz around this show seems to concern a racy scene that was taken out of the episode. Doesn't seem like the best viewership draw.

Over/Under: 0.75.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/16/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The fun appears to be over on ABC as Super Fun Night dropped substantially again in week three, now managing barely over half of the Modern Family demo rating. What was a promising start two weeks ago is now a low-end Modern Family retainer.
  • It didn't go any better for the 8:30 newbie. ABC had a nice uptick in the lead-off slot with a new Toy Story Halloween special that we'll probably see again in the future. But it was of almost no help to Back in the Game.
  • The CW made it two straight weeks with a surprising uptick in the 8:00 hour, as Arrow shook off last week's disappointing start and returned to about the level expected pre-season. And newbie The Tomorrow People was down just a tick in week two.

First Two Weeks, The 2013-14 Lineups


Here are my yearly lineups of each new scripted show's premiere rating and its week two drop. I'm not adding the point system seen in past years at the moment because it's a formatting nightmare and nobody cares about it. It will probably show up toward the end of the season, so I only have to do it once. But I will still put the "tier" markings, so if you did enjoy that part, you can still calculate it for your show.

CW Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14


These are the CW's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14, lining up all the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. There will be a few editions of these over the course of the season filled with show-by-show analysis, but this post has just the numbers, and it'll get updated every Wednesday/Thursday when the SpotVault updates happen.

This year, I'm adding a couple other numbers that might be of some help: the year-to-year trend and the show's 18-49 skew. The skew does a decent job of projecting how friendly this show's audience will be per 18-49 point to advertisers (higher is better). The y2y/skew numbers are currently for the full season-to-date, not just the numbers counted in the A18-49/True averages, though I may change that later.

These rankings cover numbers through Sunday, May 25.

SpotVault - The Biggest Loser (NBC) - Fall 2013 Ratings





The Biggest Loser
Tuesdays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





America's Funniest Home Videos
Sundays, 7/6c, ABC







SpotVault - Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
Thursdays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - The Tomorrow People (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Tomorrow People
Wednesdays, 9/8c, CW







SpotVault - Arrow (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





Arrow
Wednesdays, 8/7c, CW







First Two Weeks, The Millers


WEEK ONE
Thanks to its The Big Bang Theory lead-in (5.2), The Millers averaged a 3.3 demo rating in its premiere, one of the season's bigger premiere numbers. But as post-TBBT premieres go, this wasn't one of the greats. While it beat the two-and-through 2011 premiere of How to Be a Gentleman (2.9), it fell well behind $#*! My Dad Says (4.0), Rob (4.1) and this season's The Crazy Ones (3.9). It wasn't a disastrous premiere rating, but it wasn't a particularly positive one either.



Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/15/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC had a passable but modest return from The Biggest Loser at 8/7c, and it skewed way older than last season; it actually had about the same number of total viewers as the 3.0 Sunday preview in January but was down a quarter in the demo. The Voice also weakened in its first one-hour episode.
  • ABC's The Goldbergs continued the awesome tradition of comedies taking a huge dip the week after I say they're getting renewed. It was surrounded by the the barely-down Agents of SHIELD and Trophy Wife.
  • Fox had the end of the ALCS game leading into their Tuesday comedy lineup, and after a finals uptick maybe that was a bit of a difference-maker for Dads. And New Girl had a weak night at 9:00.
  • Free of The Voice competition at 8/7c, NCIS had a nice bounce-back at 8/7c, as did Person of Interest at 10/9c, but the middle hour was merely steady against the original return of The Voice.
  • The CW had a second straight outstanding Tuesday as The Originals improbably perked up by a couple ticks in its second Tuesday airing. It actually did better than last week's episode of mothership The Vampire Diaries!
  •  A note on the Ty2y stats: the big four simulcast a debate on this night a year ago.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 10/13/13 (2013-14 Week Three)


Sunday Night Football, then The Big Bang Theory, then The Voice, then Modern Family. Surprise! Scandal held off an inflated Glee and the rest of the upper-2's gang to take the weekly broadcast drama crown.

With Super Fun Night dropping off the list, we're down to five new shows making the cut, with The Crazy Ones not that far from dropping out.

Perhaps the most notable thing about this list is that the bar to make the top 25 lowered by more than two tenths of a point from week two to week three, continuing broadcast's rather sharp negative momentum following the strong premiere week.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/14/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS' yanking of We Are Men led to only a minor week-to-week improvement for the two-hour comedy block. 2 Broke Girls improved by a few ticks in its return to 8:30 (and vastly improved on We Are Men), but the 9/8c repeat of The Big Bang Theory (2.2) was not nearly the kind of injection of new life that it was last year in the 8:30 post-How I Met Your Mother role. And with no lead-in bounce, Mom was down week-to-week again. Last year, CBS actually dreaded the return of Rules of Engagement because it did a lot worse than TBBT repeats. This time, I guess the silver lining is it's hard to see things getting much worse when Mike and Molly comes back in three weeks.
  • Sleepy Hollow inched down once again heading into a three-week hiatus, as did The Blacklist.
  • ABC had the best night on a week-to-week basis, rising with both Dancing with the Stars and Castle.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/13/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Sunday's headliner was easily the season four premiere of The Walking Dead (8.2), which went yet another 28% above its previous high for the season three finale. We can now legitimately entertain the possibility that this series could hang with Sunday Night Football as the #1 series counting sports. (And it should crush it in a popularity measure like Live+7.) In raw numbers, it's the biggest regularly-scheduled drama episode since House on 2/5/08 and the biggest scripted episode since Ashton Kutcher's debut on Two and a Half Men in 2011. If you make any kind of adjustment for the collective decline, it gets even more ridiculous; it's probably only behind Men and the Friends finale in recent memory. Other than that, I got nothing!
  • As for the Dead effect on broadcast: It's not good that ABC's Revenge has officially returned to its weak spring 2013 level while Once Upon a Time is almost there, or that Betrayal (0.9) has gone well below last year's low point for 666 Park Ave. But it was even uglier on CBS, where The Amazing Race, The Good Wife and The Mentalist went into lowest-ever territory.
  • Sunday Night Football held off the Dead after finals and had its biggest number in a month, while Fox's ALCS rode an NFL lead-in to a significant improvement on Saturday's game 1 number.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 10/12/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Both of the usual football broadcasters took the night off to air other sports. ESPN's Texas A&M/Ole Miss football thriller (1.9) tied Fox's baseball game as the night's biggest programs. ABC's NASCAR was flat year-to-year.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/11/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The 8/7c struggle swung back in the Gordon Ramsay direction in week three, as MasterChef Junior picked back up by a tick and the ABC comedies and Undercover Boss were down.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/10/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The night's headline event was the tribute to Cory Monteith on Glee, and the show nearly doubled last week's ratings, adjusted up to outright take the 9/8c crown, and hit the show's best level since early last season. Still, this seems unlikely to make any real difference for the show when it returns from baseball hiatus in four weeks (it certainly didn't in the episodes leading in).
  • You could argue the Glee surge was a one-time cultural event and that the rest of the hour's numbers could be somewhat written off. But it was actually similar-skewing Grey's Anatomy that held best, while CBS saw The Crazy Ones post a rather distressing week three number. And NBC may have to spring into action immediately as The Michael J. Fox Show had an even more miserable week three, dropping just as much week-to-week as the second-week comedies ahead of it (Welcome to the Family (0.8) and Sean Saves the World (1.0)).
  • ABC was not without its own disappointment as new spin-off Once Upon a Time in Wonderland became ABC's latest soft starter in the still-problematic Thursday 8/7c hour, building by just a tenth on last week's Scandal recap. Usually the point of a spin-off is that you assure that some baseline audience from the parent show will show up, but I was worried that in this case the Once brand might actually be a negative for this kind of show's audience, as many of them have rejected the mothership. Those worries seem to have been even more founded than I expected. 
  • A couple other quick notes: The Millers held well for CBS in week two. And the CW's The Vampire Diaries was down in week two, but overall it seems like they probably get high marks just for keeping the Reign premiere out of that mess in the 9:00 hour.

First Two Weeks, Welcome to the Family


WEEK ONE
NBC's Welcome to the Family is currently broadcast's weakest premiere of the 2013-14 season, opening its run on Thursday at 8:30 with a pathetic 1.1 demo. The only "positive" here was that it was just a tenth behind its lead-in from Parks and Recreation (1.2). But a series that can't at least hold a 1.2 for its premiere is not a series that will be around for very long.


Tuesday, October 15, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 10/15/13: Will The Biggest Loser Make NBC a Timeslot Loser?


Tonight NBC brings back The Biggest Loser a week later than originally intended. While some thought the delay might mean NBC was prepping an emergency move to Thursday, instead TBL will get its planned Tuesday timeslot. It's coming off a strong winter season which premiered to a 3.0 on a Sunday, ended at a 2.7, and had a bunch of very low 2's in the middle. I say it goes way lower than last year's premiere because there's no "Jillian's Back!" inflation, but The Biggest Loser is the slot's only unscripted option, and airing alongside lead-out The Voice could provide positive synergy.

Over/Under: 2.25.

First Two Weeks, Super Fun Night


WEEK ONE
ABC's Super Fun Night became the latest series to post a solid premiere result after Modern Family. It averaged a 3.2 demo, retaining over 75% of its lead-in from Modern (4.2). It won the 9:30 half hour, beating competing Criminal Minds (2.7) on CBS as well as Fox's The X Factor (2.6 at 9:30) and NBC's Law and Order: SVU (2.1 at 9:30). Among recent post-Modern premieres, it was actually one of the most impressive, tying last year's The Neighbors (which had a 1.3-point bigger lead-in).


Monday, October 14, 2013

The Question, Monday 10/14/13: Is CBS Going for Broke or Just Going Broke on Monday?


CBS makes the season's first major in-season scheduling move tonight, removing newbie We Are Men after two episodes. But instead of just plugging the replacement into the 8:30 slot, CBS sent the flailing 9:00 anchor 2 Broke Girls back there, where the usually lead-in dependent show could benefit significantly from the direct How I Met Your Mother lead-in. Meanwhile, it's TV's strongest repeat option The Big Bang Theory at 9/8c for the next three weeks. It has a good chance to do better than the last couple 2 Broke Girls originals. And CBS is hoping that this momentum will carry over at least a bit into the 9:30 half hour where the marginal-rated Mom remains.

Last year, CBS saw almost no bounce the week after killing Partners, mostly because they brought in Two and a Half Men rather than TBBT. They got a massive bounce the next week with Big Bang, though Dancing With the Stars being just an hour was also likely a big factor on that night.

Last week, the three programs in these slots added up to 6.2. (We Are Men 1.8 + 2BG 2.3 + Mom 2.1.)

2 Broke Girls PLUS The Big Bang Theory (R) PLUS Mom Over/Under: 7.45.

First Two Weeks, Ironside


WEEK ONE
NBC's remake of the classic series Ironside got off to a very poor start, managing a paltry 1.3 demo. While it had basically the same 6.8 million total viewer audience as its Law and Order: SVU lead-in, it shed 35% of the 2.0 18-49 rating that SVU pulled, and it went well behind competing CSI (2.1) and Nashville (1.9). It was hard to see any real hope in this premiere number.


Sunday, October 13, 2013

The Question, Sunday 10/13/13: Are the Dead Walking Even Taller Still?


The Walking Dead is back to blow all of our minds again... and I'm just talking about the ratings. I could trot out my old line about how I can't possibly see a drama on basic cable getting any bigger than what this did last season, but then I've been saying that since season one to absolutely no avail. A big finale spike usually means good things for the next premiere, so I say it grinds out one last series high tonight, edging the spring finale's 6.4. But I simply lack the imagination to say that it's taking yet another huge leap into the 7's or something.

Over/Under: 6.55.

Friday, October 11, 2013

The Climate, 2013-14 Week Two


Another quickie look at the big picture through two weeks of 2013-14:

First Two Weeks, We Are Men


WEEK ONE
It's hard to imagine CBS could find an even worse post-How I Met Your Mother occupant than last year's Partners, but they pulled it off. We Are Men premiered at a terrible 2.0 demo, down 17% from the year-ago Partners debut and less than two thirds of the demo delivery from the show's lead-in How I Met Your Mother (3.1). It had quite a bit of competition from The Voice (4.6 in the 8:30 half-hour), Dancing with the Stars (2.0) and Bones (2.3 at 8:30), but this is still an undoubtedly horrible performance.


First Two Weeks, The Crazy Ones


WEEK ONE
Robin Williams' return to TV went rather nicely as The Crazy Ones premiered on premiere Thursday to a 3.9 demo, easily the highest-rated comedy premiere of the season. It won a tough 9:00 half hour against Grey's Anatomy, The Michael J. Fox Show and Glee. But it owed a lot of credit to its absolutely enormous lead-in from the second half of a one-hour The Big Bang Theory premiere (6.1 at 8:30).


Thursday, October 10, 2013

The Question, Thursday 10/10/13: Will Once Upon a Time in Wonderland Leave ABC Wondering?


ABC finishes out its very mixed fall slate with tonight's premiere of Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, which may be the deciding factor in whether we can say ABC had a "good" fall. Can a TV series about Alice in Wonderland premiere well? I think so. Can a Once Upon a Time spin-off premiere well at this point? Maybe, though I'm worried that brand may be seen as a negative by some. This is a total wild card, so I'm resorting to the same low-2's level ABC has usually managed with relatively hyped premieres in this slot. (See also: Charlie's Angels (2.1), Missing (2.1), Last Resort (2.2).)

Over/Under: 2.15.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/9/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The mostly downward week three trend continued to Wednesday, when most shows were down roughly 10% week-to-week. ABC saw 9:30 newbie Super Fun Night take the large week two drop most expected, down 22% from the premiere, though after finals non-adjustments it's still at a good level. A finals downtick for Nashville left it at a disappointing -16% week-to-week, though.
  • The CW's Tuesday momentum couldn't continue onto Wednesday as Arrow disappointingly only managed to get back to its finale numbers. Given that softness and a finals uptick, I'm willing to say it was a reasonably positive premiere for The Tomorrow People, which ended up matching Arrow's demo (I expected TTP to premiere at 0.9 with Arrow two ticks higher). We'll see what happens next week.
  • On NBC, Revolution inched downward again, Law and Order: SVU continued its rapid evening out two weeks after that massive premiere, and Ironside was down 15%, doing nothing to change its negative premiere night narrative. 
  • The broadcasters' 10/9c struggles may be partly attributable to cable, where there was an epic clash going down between A&E's Duck Dynasty (3.2) and FX's premiere of American Horror Story: Coven (3.0). For AHS, it's an absolutely remarkable turnaround given that season two debuted at 2.2 and actually declined big from there (all the way to 1.3 by the finale).

Fox Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14


These are Fox's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14, lining up all the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. There will be a few editions of these over the course of the season filled with show-by-show analysis, but this post has just the numbers, and it'll get updated every Wednesday/Thursday when the SpotVault updates happen.

This year, I'm adding a couple other numbers that might be of some help: the year-to-year trend and the show's 18-49 skew. The skew does a decent job of projecting how friendly this show's audience will be per 18-49 point to advertisers (higher is better). The y2y/skew numbers are currently for the full season-to-date, not just the numbers counted in the A18-49/True averages, though I may change that later.

These rankings cover numbers through Sunday, May 25.

NBC Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14


These are NBC's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14, lining up all the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. There will be a few editions of these over the course of the season filled with show-by-show analysis, but this post has just the numbers, and it'll get updated every Wednesday/Thursday when the SpotVault updates happen.

This year, I'm adding a couple other numbers that might be of some help: the year-to-year trend and the show's 18-49 skew. The skew does a decent job of projecting how friendly this show's audience will be per 18-49 point to advertisers (higher is better). The y2y/skew numbers are currently for the full season-to-date, not just the numbers counted in the A18-49/True averages, though I may change that later.

These rankings cover numbers through Sunday, May 25.

CBS Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14


These are CBS's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14, lining up all the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. There will be a few editions of these over the course of the season filled with show-by-show analysis, but this post has just the numbers, and it'll get updated every Wednesday/Thursday when the SpotVault updates happen.

This year, I'm adding a couple other numbers that might be of some help: the year-to-year trend and the show's 18-49 skew. The skew does a decent job of projecting how friendly this show's audience will be per 18-49 point to advertisers (higher is better). The y2y/skew numbers are currently for the full season-to-date, not just the numbers counted in the A18-49/True averages, though I may change that later.

These rankings cover numbers through Sunday, May 25.

ABC Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14


These are ABC's Weekly True Power Rankings for 2013-14, lining up all the network's shows based on their recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. There will be a few editions of these over the course of the season filled with show-by-show analysis, but this post has just the numbers, and it'll get updated every Wednesday/Thursday when the SpotVault updates happen.

This year, I'm adding a couple other numbers that might be of some help: the year-to-year trend and the show's 18-49 skew. The skew does a decent job of projecting how friendly this show's audience will be per 18-49 point to advertisers (higher is better). The y2y/skew numbers are currently for the full season-to-date, not just the numbers counted in the A18-49/True averages, though I may change that later.

These rankings cover numbers through Sunday, May 25.

SpotVault - Supernatural (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





Supernatural
Tuesdays, 9/8c, CW







SpotVault - Beauty and the Beast (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





Beauty and the Beast
Mondays, 9/8c, CW







SpotVault - Hart of Dixie (CW) - 2013-14 Ratings





Hart of Dixie
Mondays, 8/7c, CW







First Two Weeks, The Michael J. Fox Show


WEEK ONE
NBC welcomed Michael J. Fox back to television on premiere Thursday, but only a relatively modest contingent of people were interested. It premiered to a disappointing 2.2 demo, though it nearly doubled its terrible lead-in from Parks and Recreation (1.3 overall, 1.2 at 8:30). The premiere edged Glee (2.0) for third place among the broadcasters at 9:00, but it was crushed by CBS' comedies (3.4) and ABC's Grey's Anatomy (3.4).


First Two Weeks, Back in the Game


WEEK ONE
ABC premiered its latest post-The Middle newbie Back in the Game to a 2.2 demo, down a few tenths from its 2.5 The Middle lead-in. This was a slightly better number than anything The Neighbors or Suburgatory ever did in the 8:30 half-hour last season (though The Neighbors' series premiere was at 9:30, so that may not be totally fair). It faced off against a fairly underwhelming set of competition, from The X Factor (2.7 at 8:30) to Survivor (2.4) to Revolution (1.8).


Wednesday, October 9, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 10/9/13: Will the Arrow Point Up for the CW Tomorrow?


The CW triple-header wraps up tonight as the network completes the split-up of last season's solid Wednesday lineup. Arrow remains in the Wednesday lead-off role and now leads into similar-themed new drama The Tomorrow People about a bunch of people with extraordinary abilities. While Tomorrow may not have quite the same kind of built-in appeal as comic book-based Arrow, it could make for a very compatible pairing, especially tonight. Will the arrow point up for the CW tomorrow? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 9, 2013.


Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/8/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The Agents of SHIELD bleeding continued for ABC, though it did slow down somewhat. It brought The Goldbergs another few tenths, while Trophy Wife was even at 9:30 and a repeat of Scandal improved on Lucky 7 at 10/9c.
  • On the CW, consider night #3 established. The Originals made a solid transition to its new night, down just a tenth from the post-The Vampire Diaries preview, but the real stunner was the premiere of Supernatural, which hit its best ratings in nearly three years (since a 1.2 on 10/15/10) in its return to Tuesday. It was 50% ahead of last year's Oh Sit!-depressed premiere and 0.2-0.3 ahead of its spring 2013 level.
  • CBS saw NCIS take a significant post-Cote de Pablo crash; it fell back behind SHIELD and remained behind The Voice even in clip show mode. But they were relatively steady in the last two hours.
  • NBC remained atop the Tuesday standings even with a two-hour clip show of The Voice; Chicago Fire was down about a half point with the depressed lead-in.
  • Perhaps benefiting from a weaker Voice, Fox's fourth-place comedy lineup finally stabilized, with Brooklyn Nine-Nine and New Girl on the upswing.

The True Top 25, Week Ending 10/6/13 (2013-14 Week Two)


Sunday Night Football topped another True Top 25 in week two. The Big Bang Theory was the top entertainment program. NCIS actually edged the Scandal premiere for the True drama crown since the latter has such a good lead-in from Grey's Anatomy.

As in week one, six new shows made the cut this week. Four were holdovers from week one (with The Goldbergs and Michael J. Fox dropping out), while two premieres (The Millers and Super Fun Night) eked out a spot for at least this week.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 10/5/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Three broadcast networks had football as NBC went with one of its annual primetime Notre Dame games. ABC's Ohio State/Northwestern duel crushed the other two games combined and posted the ABC franchise's best number since the August 31 premiere. It got up to a 3.1 in the 10:30 half-hour.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/4/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • MasterChef Junior took a 19% dip in week two but still looks like a decent Friday option, and Undercover Boss also came down a couple notches. ABC's competing Last Man Standing, which really struggled last week, may have picked up some of the pieces in rallying by two tenths.
  • The CBS procedurals came down from their well-above-expectation premieres last week, especially Blue Bloods. However, if 1.5/1.4 is going to be these shows' levels, that'll still be a decent win for CBS in its Hawaii Five-0 move. The CBS lineup went +34% year-to-year (though the year-ago evening had the disastrous second Made in Jersey episode).

First Two Weeks, The Goldbergs


WEEK ONE
Directly leading out of ABC's massive Agents of SHIELD premiere was new comedy The Goldbergs, which posted a very respectable 3.1 demo in its premiere. That was down about a third from SHIELD's 4.7 rating in the 8:30 half-hour. It had about as much competition as SHIELD, facing off against NBC's The Voice (5.1 in the half hour) as well as NCIS: Los Angeles (3.1 at 9:00) and New Girl (2.1).


Tuesday, October 8, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 10/8/13: Does the CW Finally Have a Super Tuesday Lineup?


In 2012-13 the CW was essentially a two-night, three-show network: Wednesday with Arrow/Supernatural and Thursday with The Vampire Diaries. Tonight, they send one of those three shows to try to establish a beachhead on a third evening. Supernatural is back in the Tuesday 9/8c slot where it all began eight years ago after Gilmore Girls, and they'll hope for respectability in the 8/7c hour with The Vampire Diaries spin-off The Originals, which got a post-TVD preview last week. Does the CW finally have a super Tuesday lineup? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 8, 2013.


Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/7/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Almost everything came down a little more on the third Monday of the broadcast season. It got particularly ugly for CBS' 10/9c occupant Hostages, down three more tenths, and it's now very tough to see the entire 15-episode string getting played out in this timeslot. While week two of We Are Men remained a clear CBS comedy weak link, it was only down 10% from the premiere. We'll see if CBS allows it to drag things down for a bit longer.
  • Promising newbies Sleepy Hollow and The Blacklist each ended up shedding two more tenths week-to-week in finals.
  • The CW's latest Surrender Monday lived up to the billing with Hart of Dixie a tick below its late-season level and Beauty and the Beast shedding two tenths in its first ep without a Vampire Diaries lead-in. They went 22% behind the already pathetic 90210/Gossip Girl lineup of a year ago (each show averaged a 0.45 using the half-hour breakdowns consulted in the Ty2y stat). Might some unlucky newbie end up inheriting the BatB slot at midseason?

First Two Weeks, Trophy Wife


WEEK ONE
A half hour after ABC's enormous Agents of SHIELD premiere came to an end, ABC premiered new comedy Trophy Wife. It averaged a 2.3 demo, down about a quarter from its The Goldbergs lead-in (3.1). It beat competing comedy The Mindy Project (1.5) rather convincingly and also faced The Voice (5.4 at 9:30) and NCIS: Los Angeles (2.9 at 9:30).


First Two Weeks, Agents of SHIELD


WEEK ONE
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. was the most anticipated new show of the fall, and it showed. Big-time. The show opened on premiere Tuesday with a 4.7 demo, a number that will likely wind up being the largest self-starting premiere in A18-49+ history. And it pulled this off against brutal competition: The Voice (4.1 in the 8:00 hour), the NCIS premiere (3.6) and the Fox comedies (1.5/1.8).


Monday, October 7, 2013

The Question, Monday 10/7/13: Will the CW Have a Beastly Opening Monday?


Tonight the CW begins the roll-out of its regular fall schedule with Monday duo Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast. Both low-rated returnees are coming from another night, with Hart having led off Tuesday last year and BatB coming from Thursday after The Vampire Diaries. In an attempt to truly solidify the Tuesday to Thursday portion of the sked, this Monday lineup is effectively a "Surrender Night" for the netlet, and those tend not to go very well. Will the CW have a beastly opening Monday? That's The Question for Monday, October 7, 2013.


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/6/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC's week two winner was Once Upon a Time, which adjusted up to finish even week-to-week. It closed the gap to -24% vs. last year's second episode, a step in the right direction from the premiere's -33%. Revenge dropped 17% from last week even with Breaking Bad out of the timeslot, a similar post-premiere drop as last year. And newbie Betrayal (1.1) is obviously not in for the long term after a steep 27% week two drop; but since Lucky 7 was pulled recently, it's probably going to continue airing, and it still may even last the whole fall.
  • Fox did well with The Simpsons' annual "Treehouse of Horror" episode, which should be (as usual) the show's largest number without NFL help this season. It was just 3% behind last year's episode. However, the year-to-year drops are more concerning later in the evening with Bob's Burgers (-17%), Family Guy (-26%) and American Dad! (-19%).
  • CBS had a massive NFL overrun from the dramatic end of a game between the NFL's biggest team draw (Dallas Cowboys) and its biggest individual draw (Peyton Manning of the Broncos). If you're new to the broadcast Sunday ratings, here's how it goes: those overruns help 60 Minutes by a ton, still benefit The Amazing Race, are essentially neutral for The Good Wife (though it was up a tick this time) and a negative for The Mentalist, which started at 10:44 on the East Coast.
  • It was a relatively slow cable Sunday as AMC took a week off between the Breaking Bad finale and The Walking Dead premiere. (Well, actually, they were original with the two-hour finale of Low Winter Sun (0.15), but... yeah, they took a week off.) Lifetime debuted Witches of East End (0.7) to OK numbers, essentially matching the summer's Devious Maids premiere. And Showtime's Homeland (0.7) was down a bit in week two.

First Two Weeks, Mom


WEEK ONE
The CBS Premiere Monday was filled with disappointment, and Chuck Lorre's latest entry Mom was no exception. It averaged an underwhelming 2.5 demo, down three tenths from its 2 Broke Girls lead-in (2.8). Still, it was probably only the third-most disappointing show on the CBS evening. 2BG dropped much more out of How I Met Your Mother, and the 10/9c occupant Hostages (1.8) had a much worse premiere. And the 9:30 competition is extremely fierce these days with NBC airing The Voice (5.6 at 9:30), Fox going with Sleepy Hollow (3.1 at 9:30) and ABC very much on the map with Dancing with the Stars (2.2 at 9:30). Oh, and Monday Night Football (5.6)!


First Two Weeks, Lucky 7


WEEK ONE
ABC's Lucky 7 was the lowest-rated premiere during broadcast's traditional premiere week. A night that ABC started with a 4.7 demo at 8:00 for Agents of SHIELD ended with Lucky 7 plummeting all the way to a paltry 1.3 demo, down by nearly half from its direct lead-in Trophy Wife (2.3). It was crushed by competing dramas Chicago Fire (2.7) and Person of Interest (2.3).


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