Monday, September 30, 2013

First Two Weeks, Sleepy Hollow


WEEK ONE
Fox got a sensational start out of new drama Sleepy Hollow, which averaged a 3.5 adults 18-49 rating. That was about 50% higher than its Bones lead-in (2.3) and an easy #1 against the pre-premiere week broadcast competition. It outrated the many low-3's dramas Fox has premiered on Monday over the last few years, from Terra Nova (3.1) to Alcatraz (3.3) to The Following (3.2), all the more impressive since this is the last of those shows chronologically.


Sunday, September 29, 2013

The Question, Sunday 9/29/13: How Badly Will We Want to See Off Breaking Bad?


In protest of the broadcast networks' weak Sunday schedules, I'm spending b'cast's Premiere Sunday on cable with the series finale of Breaking Bad, a cultural mega-event that should crush all of the broadcast scripted options. This show's meteoric rise has been almost unprecedented. After four years toiling away at sub-1.0 ratings, it grew into the low 1's for the first half of the final season in 2012 and absolutely went through the roof for 2013's second half. Now there are more people watching AMC's week-long series marathon than may have seen some of those eps in first run! How badly will we want to see off Breaking Bad? That's The Question for Sunday, September 29, 2013.


SpotVault - Sons of Anarchy (FX) - Fall 2013 Ratings


Sons of Anarchy
Tuesdays, 10/9c, FX







SpotVault - Boardwalk Empire (HBO) - Fall 2013 Ratings





Boardwalk Empire
Sundays, 9/8c, HBO







Saturday, September 28, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Friday 9/27/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Gordon Ramsay does it again. The MasterChef brand spun off to Friday with MasterChef Junior and after finals ended up tying for an impressive win the 8/7c hour. CBS remained respectable with Undercover Boss, up a tick from last year's premiere, and the big losers in this suddenly crowded hour were ABC's comedies Last Man Standing and The Neighbors, combining to tumble by nearly 20% week-to-week.
  • ABC had much better news at 9/8c as Shark Tank picked up the two ticks despite the struggles in the previous hour. CBS was once again a very respectable second with the Friday debut of Hawaii Five-0, but probably the Eye's biggest pleasant surprise was its 10/9c domination with Blue Bloods, which outrated any result from last season. The procedurals will likely come down a bit after the promotion of Five-0's move dies down, but consider this a surprisingly stout start for CBS.
  • Broadcast TV continued a great opening week by going +10% vs. premiere Friday 2012, with only NBC down year-to-year (and they had Grimm last year). The big four are now tracking +3% vs. the first five days of 2012.

The Question, Friday 9/27/13: Will Hawaii Five-0 Make a Splash on Friday?


On premiere Friday, CBS looks to start a new tradition on the night by moving the declining Hawaii Five-0 over from Monday. It's one of CBS' younger-skewing crime procedurals; maybe that means it'll bring a little demo infusion to the Friday lineup, or maybe it means it's a bad fit on the evening. It's got all unscripted competition tonight. It averaged just over a 2.0 on Monday last season. Will Hawaii Five-0 make a splash on Friday?

Over/Under: 1.45.

SpotVault - Glee (Fox) - 2013-14 Ratings





Glee
Thursdays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - Parenthood (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Parenthood
Thursdays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Michael J. Fox Show
Thursdays, 9/8c, NBC







SpotVault - Parks and Recreation (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Parks and Recreation
Thursdays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - Elementary (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Elementary
Thursdays, 10/9c, CBS







SpotVault - Two and a Half Men (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Two and a Half Men
Thursdays, 9:30/8:30c, CBS







SpotVault - The Crazy Ones (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Crazy Ones
Thursdays, 9/8c, CBS







SpotVault - The Big Bang Theory (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Big Bang Theory
Thursdays, 8/7c, CBS







SpotVault - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Grey's Anatomy
Thursdays, 9/8c, ABC







Friday, September 27, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Thursday 9/26/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Through three days of the TV season, the only network without a truly great moment was CBS, and it was finally their turn to shine on Thursday. The Big Bang Theory returned in stellar fashion, growing year-to-year again, and it launched The Crazy Ones to the week's second-biggest series premiere number. It's a positive start for TCO, but a big drop in lead-in is coming next week. Free of the direct BBT lead-in, the relative softness of Two and a Half Men was on display as it shed another 25%+ from The Crazy Ones. And by 10/9c, Elementary was as "meh" as ever with a new lead-in.
  • NBC brought some new viewers to the table with the premiere of The Michael J. Fox Show (2.1/2.1), but a high percentage of them were out-of-demo, as the show skewed considerably older than has become the NBC Thursday tradition, including its very weak lead-in from Parks and Recreation. It looks like this show will be another The Office-sized demo player at best. Probably the least disappointing thing on NBC was the Thursday premiere of Parenthood, which was down some but not that much in its transition to Thursday despite not having a lot of lead-in help.

  • Fox at least initially shows little sign of a Beatles bounce or a Monteith bounce or any kind of bounce for week one of Glee, which was down huge from last year's pre-premiere week premiere and still double digits from the first in-season episode.

  • And ABC brought back Grey's Anatomy for season ten at pretty much as-expected levels, down by 23% from last year's massive 4.4 premiere.

  • So the Big Four went -3% vs. premiere Thursday 2012. NBC may have struggled, but they still built year-to-year for a fourth straight night (albeit vs. a lineup that included Up All Night and Rock Center). CBS was also up year-to-year, with the second The Big Bang Theory and minor 9:00 gains cancelling out the losses at 10/9c vs. the inflated Elementary premiere. ABC was down thanks to an Agents of SHIELD repeat at 8/7c, while Fox was down the most.

SpotVault - Law & Order: SVU (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Law and Order: SVU
Wednesdays, 9/8c, NBC







SpotVault - Revolution (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Revolution
Wednesdays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - CSI (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





CSI
Wednesdays, 10/9c, CBS







SpotVault - Criminal Minds (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Criminal Minds
Wednesdays, 9/8c, CBS







SpotVault - Nashville (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Nashville
Wednesdays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - Modern Family (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Modern Family
Wednesdays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - Back in the Game (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Back in the Game
Wednesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC







SpotVault - The Middle (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Middle
Wednesdays, 8/7c, ABC







Spotted Ratings, Weekend Roundup 9/20-9/22/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • All of this stuff is very old news by now, so I'll be quick on the details on the last three days of the 2012-13 season. ABC's Friday premiere lineup was a bit of a disappointment, especially The Neighbors as a clear weak link at 8:30.
  • On Sunday, the Emmy Awards were up a stout 26% year-to-year, probably picking up at least a few ticks due to its NFL lead-in. (It dropped in each half-hour: 6.5 -> 5.5 -> 4.9 -> 4.6 -> 4.5 -> 4.1). Despite the big competition, there were series highs aplenty on cable: the penultimate Breaking Bad (3.4), the series finale of Dexter (1.3) and the season finale of Devious Maids (1.1).

Thursday, September 26, 2013

The Question, Thursday 9/26/13: Who Wins a Ratings Race Between a Fox and a Robin?


Premiere Thursday features the week's second huge newbie premiere clash between NBC and CBS. This one's even higher-profile than the first as industry legends Michael J. Fox and Robin Williams make their returns to TV. The Michael J. Fox Show and The Crazy Ones won't normally be going head-to-head, but a special one-hour MJF premiere pits them against each other tonight. NBC scored an absolute knockout punch in the first of these two big duels with Monday's The Blacklist, and Fox's show has the critical advantage, but CBS should bring considerably more lead-in weaponry to the table this time with the one-hour season premiere of The Big Bang Theory. Who wins a race between a Fox and a Robin? That's The Question for Thursday, September 26, 2013.


Spotted Ratings, Premiere Wednesday 9/25/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC's Wednesday Revolution began, and Revolution itself returned pretty nicely, nearly matching its late-season post-Voice results in a lead-off role. But the night's biggest story by far was the return of Law and Order: SVU, which outrated any result from the last two seasons and grew a whooping 29% from last year.
  • ABC got off to a fairly soft start on Wednesday with a one-hour Modern Family and Nashville each down around 25% from last year's premieres and The Middle also down double digits. They didn't get the fall bounce-back they have in years past. But Back in the Game, which outrated all of The Neighbors' 8:30 results last season, started in reasonably positive fashion.
  • Despite the SVU breakout, the CBS procedurals did fine, especially Criminal Minds (down just 10%), though a downward adjustment by CSI took it to 20% below last year's premiere. Survivor was down the sharpest of any CBS show, 23% below last year's week two.
  • The X Factor decided to swing upward against the return of competition. Gonna need a few to stew on that one. Still -26% vs. premiere Wednesday 2012.
  • The big four was -8% vs. premiere Wednesday 2012. ABC's -2% was a bit inflated because they had just one ModFam and a Revenge recap special on this night last year.

The Question, Wednesday 9/25/13: Can NBC Start a Wednesday Revolution?


NBC's had a lot of fun crushing the competition on the season's first two nights with The Voice and its drama lead-outs. But tonight, they get to see where they're at with a lineup that doesn't include that show. It begins with Revolution, a series that aired all of season one with a Voice lead-in but now has to fend for itself on Wednesday. The last show sent away from The Voice completely bombed on day one, so NBC's hoping that, at minimum, Revolution doesn't "pull a Smash." Can NBC start a Wednesday Revolution? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 25, 2013.

SpotVault - Chicago Fire (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Chicago Fire
Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - Person of Interest (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Person of Interest
Tuesdays, 10/9c, CBS







SpotVault - NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





NCIS: Los Angeles
Tuesdays, 9/8c, CBS







SpotVault - NCIS (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





NCIS
Tuesdays, 8/7c, CBS







SpotVault - Lucky 7 (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Lucky 7
Tuesdays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - Trophy Wife (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Trophy Wife
Tuesdays, 9:30/8:30c, ABC







SpotVault - The Goldbergs (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Goldbergs
Tuesdays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Tuesdays, 8/7c, ABC







Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/24/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Welcome to television, Marvel. Agents of SHIELD began at a number that puts it in the pantheon of recent series premieres, especially once you adjust for the ratings environment. You can count on one hand the number of scripted shows in the last decade that have premiered at even double the big four's entertainment original average, and SHIELD looks like it could be at... 2.4x? 2.5x the league average? It could even out-Plus the 2008 premiere of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, which scored a 7.7 in 2008 (2.35x the league average). And that was with a playoff football lead-in!
  • Personally I say the SHIELD launch far outweighs any of ABC's bad news, but there was bad news to be sure. The erosion was steep throughout ABC's all-new Tuesday, from The Goldbergs to Trophy Wife to Lucky 7. It's abundantly obvious that Lucky 7 is not at all long for this world, but the comedies are not quite as clear just yet.
  • NBC won its second straight night behind The Voice. It built huge in the much weaker 9:00 hour (averaging a prelim 5.0/5.3), which gave a significant boost to the season two premiere of Chicago Fire, four tenths above its previous series high.
  • CBS remained respectable with the NCIS pair, with the mothership adjusting up in finals to erode the exact same amount year-to-year (-12%) against SHIELD as NCIS: Los Angeles (-12%) at 9:00. But the network had a thud at 10/9c for the second straight night with Person of Interest (2.3). It actually dropped more year-to-year in its move to Tuesday (-21%) than either of the NCIS twins, though it was down a little less in the timeslot (-8% vs. Vegas). It's disappointing for PoI, but it could look like an all-star once the network's other 10:00 results come in.
  • I said last week that the key for the new Fox comedies was that they had to be able to withstand a one-third drop. And that's pretty much exactly what happened for Dads (-32%) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (-31%). Against a combined 12.0 rating from the Big Three, I don't consider those all that terrible, but they won't want to drop much/any more. Returnees New Girl (-28%) and The Mindy Project (-21%) also came back to reality, basically reverting to their typical spring numbers.
  • For the second straight night, the Big Four were up year-to-year, this time by 9%, but this time it was a little more mixed by network. NBC (riding an additional Voice hour) was up 46%, SHIELD-fueled ABC was up 41%, CBS down 11%, Fox down 32% vs. a double-New Girl premiere night last year.

The Question, Tuesday 9/24/13: Will ABC Be S.H.I.E.L.Ded From Fall Disaster?


Premiere Tuesday has a lot going on (why couldn't some of it get pushed to shockingly dull premiere Wednesday?!) but there's nothing bigger than the premiere of the fall's highest-awareness drama. Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is finally here, and the expectations will be high now that two new broadcast dramas have already premiered very well. Unlike those, SHIELD has to self-start, but with the Marvel brand on its side, that shouldn't be a problem. The biggest obstacle to stratospheric numbers may be the competition, which includes The Voice and an NCIS premiere.

Over/Under: 3.75.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Monday 9/23/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • In the last couple seasons, premiere Monday has done quite a solid job setting the tone for the season to come. This season, much of that 2012 tone (that is, NBC good/CBS bad) remains the same. The Voice remained the shining exception in an otherwise struggling talent show space with another sensational return, beating both of its 2013-14 premiere numbers (including 21% ahead of the pre-premiere week fall 2012 bow). And it launched NBC's next great drama hope The Blacklist pretty close to last year's Revolution numbers. Revolution launched last year in the pre-premiere week (and launched very well), so this is a great start.
  • The other big story of premiere Monday 2012 was the CBS softness, and it got even worse in 2013. Though How I Met Your Mother looked good, up a tenth year-to-year, it was pretty much an isolated incident; 2 Broke Girls (2.8) took a big dive at 9:00, Mom (2.5) lost a little more at 9:30 and Hostages (1.8) was basically dead on arrival at 10:00. There's a lot of schedule yet to premiere, but right now it looks like it will probably need a better-than-usual post-premiere hold just to make it through its 15 episodes on Monday.
  • The biggest change from Day One 2012? It looks like Fox's new drama is legit. Sleepy Hollow (3.1) lost just 11% week-to-week despite increased competition on NBC/CBS and remained well over double last year's occupant The Mob Doctor (1.3 on 9/24/12).
  • As in the spring, Dancing with the Stars' resurgence lasted only as long as The Voice's absence. In week two, it shed a quarter of its 3.1 demo audience from last week's premiere. But that was somewhat inevitable, and once you get past the week-to-week trend it may still be a positive when the dust settles. Last year's second week had just a 2.1. The network also upticked year-to-year at 10/9c with the premiere of Castle.
  • All of this adds up to the Big Four going +10% vs. premiere Monday 2012. ABC -5%, CBS -1%, NBC +15%, Fox +37%. There are some caveats that inflate this somewhat; NBC had a series premiere at 10 rather than a week two, CBS had a second How I Met Your Mother this year, etc. But overall, it's definitely a step up in tone from last year.

SpotVault - Hostages (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Hostages
Mondays, 10/9c, CBS







SpotVault - Mom (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





Mom
Mondays, 9:30/8:30c, CBS







SpotVault - 2 Broke Girls (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





2 Broke Girls
Mondays, 9/8c, CBS







SpotVault - How I Met Your Mother (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings





How I Met Your Mother
Mondays, 8/7c, CBS







SpotVault - Castle (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Castle
Mondays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - The Blacklist (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Blacklist
Mondays, 10/9c, NBC







SpotVault - The Voice (NBC) - Fall 2013 Ratings





The Voice
Mondays and Tuesdays on NBC







Tuesday, September 24, 2013

War of 18-49 Update, America's Got Talent (Summer 2013)


Let's take a look at the Summer 2013 season (the eighth overall) of America's Got Talent on NBC.

The Question, Monday 9/23/13: Which 10:00 Drama Takes Viewers Hostage?


At long last, the 2013-14 season is upon us, and premiere Monday starts things off with an all-too-familiar clash between NBC's The Voice and CBS' comedies. But the biggest intrigue this time may come in the 10:00 hour, when each network debuts its top new drama of the season. NBC gives its best timeslot to James Spader's The Blacklist, while CBS looks to keep Under the Dome's limited event series momentum rolling in the same timeslot with Dylan McDermott's Hostages. Both are fairly well-reviewed, and based on yesterday's NFL/Emmys, neither one is going to be able to point to lack of promotion as an excuse. Which 10:00 drama takes viewers hostage? That's The Question for Monday, September 23, 2013.


SpotVault - Shark Tank (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Shark Tank
Fridays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - 20/20 (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





20/20
Fridays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - The Neighbors (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





The Neighbors
Fridays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC







SpotVault - Last Man Standing (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings





Last Man Standing
Fridays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - The Million Second Quiz (NBC) - Summer 2013 Ratings





The Million Second Quiz
Six Nights a Week on NBC







Monday, September 23, 2013

The Question Results Thru Pre-Premiere Week 2013


Here are the results for the pre-premiere week editions of the ratings prediction game The Question. Premiere week Questions begin today at 2:00pm ET!

War of 18-49 Update, Wipeout (Summer 2013)


Let's take a look at the Summer 2013 season (the sixth overall) of Wipeout on ABC.

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