Super Bowls and Lead-Outs in A18-49

Super Sunday! As last year, I'll point you to the TVByTheNumbers posts (Super Bowls and lead-outs) for the complete list of viewership info, and here I'll post my figures in adults 18-49 dating back 13 years. Thanks to SonOfTheBronx for the 1999 & 2000 numbers, which I didn't have in last year's post.

Date	Number	Net	Result	Viewers (millions)	A18-49 rating	A18-49 share
2/1/1999	XXXIII	Fox	DEN 34, ATL 19	83.72	36.5	/
1/30/2000	XXXIV	ABC	STL 23, TEN 16	88.41	37.8	/
1/28/2001	XXXV	CBS	BAL 34, NYG 7	84.33	35.8	71
2/3/2002	XXXVI	Fox	NE 20, STL 17	86.80	34.7	70
1/26/2003	XXXVII	ABC	TB 48, OAK 21	88.64	36.4	70
2/1/2004	XXXVIII	CBS	NE 32, CAR 29	89.79	35.7	72
2/6/2005	XXXIX	Fox	NE 24, PHI 21	86.07	33.2	68
2/5/2006	XL	ABC	PIT 21, SEA 10	90.75	34.6	69
2/4/2007	XLI	CBS	IND 29, CHI 17	93.18	35.2	70
2/3/2008	XLII	Fox	NYG 17, NE 14	97.45	37.5	73
2/1/2009	XLIII	NBC	PIT 27, ARI 23	98.73	36.7	72
2/7/2010	XLIV	CBS	NO 31, IND 17	106.48	38.6	75
2/6/2011	XLV	Fox	GB 31, PIT 25	111.01	39.9	77

Now, the lead-outs and their retention of the game number. I'll note, of course, that the two programs are separated by the post-game show. In the last five years, the post-game always lasted right around 25 minutes, but in past years it's been more variable (the Alias year is particularly infamous for having a long show, and that contributed in part to its bad retention).

	Net	Show	Viewers (millions)	Viewer retention	A18-49 rating	A18-49 retention
2/1/1999	Fox	Family Guy	22.01	26.3%	11.5	31.5%
1/30/2000	ABC	The Practice	23.85	27.0%	10.2	27.0%
1/28/2001	CBS	Survivor	45.37	53.8%	21.8	60.9%
2/3/2002	Fox	Malcolm in the Middle	21.45	24.7%	10.5	30.3%
1/26/2003	ABC	Alias	17.40	19.6%	8.2	22.5%
2/1/2004	CBS	Survivor	33.53	37.3%	14.9	41.7%
2/6/2005	Fox	The Simpsons	23.07	26.8%	11.3	34.0%
2/5/2006	ABC	Grey's Anatomy	37.88	41.7%	16.5	47.7%
2/4/2007	CBS	Criminal Minds	26.31	28.2%	10.0	28.4%
2/3/2008	Fox	House	29.05	29.8%	12.9	34.4%
2/1/2009	NBC	The Office	22.91	23.2%	11.0	30.0%
2/7/2010	CBS	Undercover Boss	38.65	36.3%	16.2	42.0%
2/6/2011	Fox	Glee	26.80	24.1%	11.1	27.8%

One perhaps good note for NBC is that the unscripted shows (all of which have been, like The Voice, season premieres) have done quite well. The three unscripted shows in the last 13 years are all in the top four in retention. The bad news for NBC is that it has been a really rough year for competition reality programs. That may not make a whole lot of difference tonight, but it very well could in subsequent weeks.

Even though it's not terribly relevant this year since the lead-out program will be a season premiere, I'll include this "Super Bowl Impact" table, which compares the five episodes before the post-Super Bowl airing with the five episodes immediately after.

Net	Show	5 before	5 after	change
Fox	The Simpsons	4.57	4.19	-8.3%
ABC	Grey's Anatomy	8.58	10.38	+21.0%
CBS	Criminal Minds	4.44	4.10	-7.7%
Fox	House*	7.44	6.32	-15.1%
NBC	The Office	4.48	4.30	-4.0%
Fox	Glee	4.52	4.40	-2.7%

There's a tendency to call a show some kind of epic failure if it doesn't get a Super Bowl bounce. But the bottom line is that any Super Bowl bounce (much less a big one) is much more the exception than the rule, at least for scripted programs in the middle of their seasons. Premieres are a different duck; it undoubtedly boosted the early episodes of Undercover Boss and probably Survivor's two seasons that premiered after the Bowl.

*- House aired just one episode two days after the Bowl before running out of eps and leaving the air for nearly three months due to the strike, so it likely doesn't really even belong on here. It did do slightly better in its one (post-Idol) ep immediately after (9.0) than in its last one before (8.7).
**- Some of these averages have at least some preliminary numbers: 4 for Simpsons before, 3 for Simpsons after, and 1 for Grey's after.