Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/14/11: The Most Dramatic Ratings Domination Ever


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a surprisingly healthy first Monday after Daylight Saving, with viewing level estimates about even at 8:00 and slightly up at 9:00 and 10:00 on a week-to-week basis. (And there's no viewing level note in the ABC press release today, so that probably lines up with my estimates.) All CBS/NBC/Fox shows did drop (though Harry's Law and the 5-0 repeat rose in finals to avoid this), but none more than 15%.
  • They can probably owe at least some of those drops to great showings by The Bachelor (4.5) and The Bachelor: After The Final Rose (4.7), both of which were way way ahead of any other Bachelor airing this season and more healthy on a year-to-year basis (-15% for the finale, -11% for ATFR) than the season in general. The finale grabbed 41% of the broadcast eyeballs from 8-10:00 while ATFR got 57% at 10:00. (Note: the ATFR number changes due to a tweak in the bcShr calculation for 10:00 shows.)
  • The only potential renewal game-changers were another 13% drop for Mad Love (2.1) and perhaps further downticks for Chuck (1.6) and The Chicago Code (1.9).
FULL TABLE:


A18-49 Share Last Lead LeLa Comp CoLa bcShr Avg Rank
The Bachelor 4.5 13 45% n/a n/a 6.6 -5% 41 47% 1/11
The Bachelor: After the Final Rose 4.7 13 4% 4% 0% 6.7 1% 38 47% 1/12

How I Met Your Mother (R) 1.9 6 -5% n/a n/a 9.9 16% 16 -13% 6/7
Mad Love 2.1 6 -13% 11% -5% 9.9 16% 18 -23% 5/5
Two and a Half Men (R) 2.6 7 -10% 24% -13% 7.9 18% 25 -8% 6/9
Mike & Molly (R) 2.2 6 -15% -15% -10% 7.9 18% 22 -4% 5/8
Hawaii Five-0 (R) 2.0 5 0% -9% -15% 11.4 103% 16 13% 1/9

Chuck 1.6 5 -6% n/a n/a 10.3 -7% 13 -14% 18/18
The Event 1.2 3 -14% -25% 14% 9.1 5% 12 -43% 12/12
Harry's Law 1.8 5 0% 50% -14% 11.7 97% 14 -5% 4/9

House 3.5 10 -8% n/a n/a 8.4 22% 29 -7% 12/16
The Chicago Code 1.9 5 -5% -46% -8% 8.4 13% 18 -10% 6/6

90210 (R) 0.3 1 50% n/a n/a 11.6 10% 3 -17% 6/9
Gossip Girl (R) 0.3 1 50% 0% 50% 10.0 8% 3 -8% 4/9

VIEWING LEVELS:


Slot Min HUT Calc HUT Max HUT
8-9pm 32.9 34.2 36.7
9-10pm 33.6 35.9 39.1
10-11pm 35.5 37.0 38.0
8-10pm 33.1 35.0 36.4

KEY (much more detail at What? and Why? page)

A18-49 - Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Share - Percentage of US TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - Percent difference from previous episode.
Lead - Percent difference from lead-in program.
LeLa - Percent difference between lead-in and previous episode's lead-in.
Comp - Total rating of other broadcast programs in the same timeslot. 10:00 programming multiplied by 1.75 to attempt a level playing field.
CoLa - Percent difference between competition and previous episode's competition.
bcShr - Percentage of US national big-5 broadcast TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program. 10:00 programming multiplied by two-thirds to attempt a level playing field.
Avg - Percent difference from show's previous demo average this season.
Rank - Rank among show's episodes to date this season.

Min HUT/Max HUT - Smallest/largest percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 that could be watching any TV in the timeslot.
Calc HUT - Estimate of the percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 watching any TV in the timeslot. Formerly "HUT."

(R) = Regular-night repeat. These are ranked/averaged as if they were separate shows.
(oR) = Other-night repeat. These are not ranked/averaged in any way.

Stats in blue are less accurate due to lack of access to half-hour breakdowns.

Source: TravisYanan

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