Each year, most/all broadcast networks produce a half-hour special that previews their fall lineup, usually focusing heavily on the new shows. These specials are pretty low-profile and usually not very entertaining, but I find the various odd ways they're scheduled kinda interesting. Here's the info I've been able to come up with:
ABC has two separate half-hour preview specials this year, one for comedies (ABC 2010 Red Carpet Premiere Event: Laugh On) and one for dramas (ABC 2010 Red Carpet Premiere Event: No Ordinary Dramas). They air locally from August 28 through September 19, and also nationally on Sunday, September 19 back-to-back at 5:00pm and 5:30pm Eastern on ABC. EDIT: They are also now available on abc.com. (Link)
The CBS Fall Preview, hosted by The Defenders stars Jim Belushi and Jerry O'Connell, airs nationally on Monday, September 6th at 8:30/7:30c on CBS. (PRESS RELEASE)
The NBC Primetime Preview Show is currently available on hulu (Link). It has no national NBC airings but will be on affiliates and various NBCU networks from August 8 through September 27. Upcoming airings on my TiVo Guide include a 12:30pm Eastern airing on Friday, September 3 on Bravo and a 6:30pm Eastern airing on Monday, September 6 on CNBC.
The 2010 Fox Fall Preview, hosted by the cast of Bones, appears to be an affiliate-only thing like the CW's, but you can also see it online at the website of the FOX 23 affiliate in Maine.
The CW 2010 Fall Preview Special seems to be another affiliate-only program, so check local listings. I caught it earlier this week. It's hosted by Kristoffer Polaha of Life Unexpected and Robert Buckley of One Tree Hill and focuses on (in order) The Vampire Diaries, Hellcats, Nikita, and the final season of Smallville.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
22 Hours of Primetime, Tuesday 8/7c
Today, my fall preview looks at Tuesday 8/7c. The arrival of Glee will throw another wrinkle into an hour usually dominated in the 4th quarter by NCIS and The Biggest Loser.
Monday, August 30, 2010
First T'Weaks
I intended for this post to go up no less than 3 months ago, and I wrote almost all of this back then, but other stuff got in the way of me finishing. With the new season getting somewhat near, though, perhaps it's an appropriate time to start gearing up for one of my in-season projects: First Two Weeks, in which I project the fate of new shows based on their first two data points. (More info at the top of my last post on the topic.) I've been looking for a way to tweak the system, hence the lame pun for this post's title. One last time for 2009-10, here's all the info, with everything greened and redded now that upfronts have passed.
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
Sons of Tucson -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Romantically Challenged -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Eastwick -23%
Hank -24%
Life Unexpected -24%
V -27%
Happy Town -29%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
The only part of this system where there were multiple problems, in my opinion, was the "borderline" category, which was a combination of legitimately borderline shows as well as complete flops that ended up with no shot at renewal, including Melrose Place, Mercy, The Deep End, and Sons of Tucson.
Now, in three of those four cases, the story was the same; awful premiere that pretty much doomed it, followed by excellent retention of that awfulness. How to correct that problem? The best solution seems to be to increase the importance of the premiere. So now, the premiere gives point totals worth 5-3-1, while the retention still gives 3-2-1. That gives us this:
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show, 7 - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife, V, Melrose Place, Community, Life Unexpected 5 - Romantically Challenged, Human Target, The Middle, Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy, The Deep End, Sons of Tucson, Past Life, The Forgotten, Eastwick 3 - Miami Medical, The Beautiful Life: TBL, Three Rivers, Brothers 2 - Trauma, Hank, Happy Town
So now "In Trouble" has several more shows but is still batting a thousand, while the "safe" category only has Flashforward, probably the only show that truly could not have possibly been given the correct prognosis based on its first two data points. 8 of 11 shows in "Borderline" got renewed, but that may well just be indicative of how renewal-heavy this year was. 13 of 30 newbies got renewed, or 43%. Well over the one-third number that is kinda the conventional wisdom.
How to parse the 11 shows in borderline? I tried breaking it down by network:
ABC (renewed 4/11)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - Flashforward, Modern Family 7 - Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - V 5 - Romantically Challenged, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - The Deep End, The Forgotten, Eastwick 2 - Hank, Happy Town
CBS (renewed 2/5)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, The Good Wife
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - Miami Medical, Three Rivers
NBC (renewed 2/4)
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Community 5 - Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy 2 - Trauma
FOX (renewed 3/6)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - The Cleveland Show
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Glee 5 - Human Target
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Sons of Tucson, Past Life 3 - Brothers
CW (renewed 2/4)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 7 - The Vampire Diaries
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Melrose Place, Life Unexpected
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - The Beautiful Life: TBL
Now, I think this breakdown helps a lot, and the only real problem is that the % of shows renewed was pretty high this year. But you can still say that on each network, a little more than the top third did get renewed. With one exception (pesky little Flashforward) every single network has a certain point at which the shows just stop getting renewed. The network breakdown reduces the bubble from 11 shows to just six shows where there was a renewal and a cancellation on the same point level: Middle/Romantically, Good Wife/AoP, and LUX/Melrose. The one common thread out of the renewed shows seems to be that they had better critical acclaim/buzz, and I think that's often a good thing to look at as a deciding factor. I thought about trying to actually factor that in, but it's tough to do from a quantitative standpoint. (I looked at using something like Metacritic scores, but ultimately decided that was just making the whole thing way too convoluted for now.)
So the changes to the system for next season will be more importance on the premiere (5-3-1 scores vs. 3-2-1), and perhaps I'll look at the breakdowns by network more frequently. I'm also going to try and find some kind of multiplier that will let me use W18-34 rather than A18-49 for the Sampling portion... we'll see about that one.
The 2010-11 edition of the First Two Weeks system returns in about two and a half weeks with early-premiering CW shows Hellcats and Nikita. As with last year, I probably won't start launching into the lists and scoring portion until I have quite a few shows already done, most likely toward the end of the second week of the regular season, or about a month from now.
SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0
*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.
RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
Sons of Tucson -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Romantically Challenged -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%
Trauma -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Eastwick -23%
Hank -24%
Life Unexpected -24%
V -27%
Happy Town -29%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%
EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)
The only part of this system where there were multiple problems, in my opinion, was the "borderline" category, which was a combination of legitimately borderline shows as well as complete flops that ended up with no shot at renewal, including Melrose Place, Mercy, The Deep End, and Sons of Tucson.
Now, in three of those four cases, the story was the same; awful premiere that pretty much doomed it, followed by excellent retention of that awfulness. How to correct that problem? The best solution seems to be to increase the importance of the premiere. So now, the premiere gives point totals worth 5-3-1, while the retention still gives 3-2-1. That gives us this:
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show, 7 - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife, V, Melrose Place, Community, Life Unexpected 5 - Romantically Challenged, Human Target, The Middle, Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy, The Deep End, Sons of Tucson, Past Life, The Forgotten, Eastwick 3 - Miami Medical, The Beautiful Life: TBL, Three Rivers, Brothers 2 - Trauma, Hank, Happy Town
So now "In Trouble" has several more shows but is still batting a thousand, while the "safe" category only has Flashforward, probably the only show that truly could not have possibly been given the correct prognosis based on its first two data points. 8 of 11 shows in "Borderline" got renewed, but that may well just be indicative of how renewal-heavy this year was. 13 of 30 newbies got renewed, or 43%. Well over the one-third number that is kinda the conventional wisdom.
How to parse the 11 shows in borderline? I tried breaking it down by network:
ABC (renewed 4/11)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - Flashforward, Modern Family 7 - Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - V 5 - Romantically Challenged, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - The Deep End, The Forgotten, Eastwick 2 - Hank, Happy Town
CBS (renewed 2/5)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, The Good Wife
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - Miami Medical, Three Rivers
NBC (renewed 2/4)
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Community 5 - Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy 2 - Trauma
FOX (renewed 3/6)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - The Cleveland Show
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Glee 5 - Human Target
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Sons of Tucson, Past Life 3 - Brothers
CW (renewed 2/4)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 7 - The Vampire Diaries
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Melrose Place, Life Unexpected
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - The Beautiful Life: TBL
Now, I think this breakdown helps a lot, and the only real problem is that the % of shows renewed was pretty high this year. But you can still say that on each network, a little more than the top third did get renewed. With one exception (pesky little Flashforward) every single network has a certain point at which the shows just stop getting renewed. The network breakdown reduces the bubble from 11 shows to just six shows where there was a renewal and a cancellation on the same point level: Middle/Romantically, Good Wife/AoP, and LUX/Melrose. The one common thread out of the renewed shows seems to be that they had better critical acclaim/buzz, and I think that's often a good thing to look at as a deciding factor. I thought about trying to actually factor that in, but it's tough to do from a quantitative standpoint. (I looked at using something like Metacritic scores, but ultimately decided that was just making the whole thing way too convoluted for now.)
So the changes to the system for next season will be more importance on the premiere (5-3-1 scores vs. 3-2-1), and perhaps I'll look at the breakdowns by network more frequently. I'm also going to try and find some kind of multiplier that will let me use W18-34 rather than A18-49 for the Sampling portion... we'll see about that one.
The 2010-11 edition of the First Two Weeks system returns in about two and a half weeks with early-premiering CW shows Hellcats and Nikita. As with last year, I probably won't start launching into the lists and scoring portion until I have quite a few shows already done, most likely toward the end of the second week of the regular season, or about a month from now.
22 Hours of Primetime, Monday 8/7c
Today, my fall preview looks at Monday 8/7c. Lots of veteran shows in this hour, as third-season 90210 will be the hour's youngest show.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
22 Hours of Primetime, Sunday 7/6c
Today, my fall preview kicks off with Sunday 7/6c. It's a pretty low-priority timeslot, and if you can find a mainstay, you keep it there. All of the big 4 have aired mostly the same stuff in this timeslot across the time period I'm following.
It's my 2nd annual fall preview!
Long time no blog! NOT.
I'm back already with the second year of the project previously known as 19 Timeslots but now known as 22 Hours of Primetime (or 22 Hours for short), in which I look at the recent history of each hour of primetime TV as a preview of the fall season. I got a little burnt out on The War of 18-49, and TVByTheNumbers has started their own, similar version of this project which will be seen by hundreds of times as many people, but after some consideration I decided to go ahead and do it again this year. My posts have more of a historical bent, all of the ratings digging/averaging I would do is already done, the majority of the prose is already written (imported from the 2009 edition), it's cool to have yearly traditions, and I don't particularly feel like going dark for the last three weeks of summer when there isn't much TV on. Also, it fits brilliantly between now and the regular season, and I'll be able to say I did a blog post of substance on every day from July 5 through the eve of premiere week on September 19!
The intro to the 2009 version still serves as a reasonable enough description of how this will go down, including the inspiration behind the idea and why the grammar can get spotty.
These are the additions/changes for 2010:
I'm back already with the second year of the project previously known as 19 Timeslots but now known as 22 Hours of Primetime (or 22 Hours for short), in which I look at the recent history of each hour of primetime TV as a preview of the fall season. I got a little burnt out on The War of 18-49, and TVByTheNumbers has started their own, similar version of this project which will be seen by hundreds of times as many people, but after some consideration I decided to go ahead and do it again this year. My posts have more of a historical bent, all of the ratings digging/averaging I would do is already done, the majority of the prose is already written (imported from the 2009 edition), it's cool to have yearly traditions, and I don't particularly feel like going dark for the last three weeks of summer when there isn't much TV on. Also, it fits brilliantly between now and the regular season, and I'll be able to say I did a blog post of substance on every day from July 5 through the eve of premiere week on September 19!
The intro to the 2009 version still serves as a reasonable enough description of how this will go down, including the inspiration behind the idea and why the grammar can get spotty.
These are the additions/changes for 2010:
Saturday, August 28, 2010
The War of 18-49 Index
ONGOING SHOWS:
90210 (CW, 2008-)
The Amazing Race (CBS, 2001-)
America's Next Top Model (UPN/The CW, 2003-)
American Dad! (Fox, 2005-)
American Idol (Fox, 2002-)
America's Got Talent (NBC, 2006-)
The Apprentice (NBC, 2004-)
Army Wives (Lifetime, 2007-)
The Bachelor/Bachelorette (ABC, 2002-)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS, 2007-)
Big Brother (CBS, 2000-)
The Biggest Loser (NBC, 2004-)
Bones (Fox, 2005-)
Burn Notice (USA, 2007-)
Castle (ABC, 2009-)
CSI (CBS, 2000-)
CSI: NY (CBS, 2004-)
Criminal Minds (CBS, 2005-)
Dancing with the Stars (ABC, 2005-)
Family Guy (Fox, 1999-2002; 2005-)
The Game (The CW/BET, 2006-)
Grey's Anatomy (ABC, 2005-)
Hell's Kitchen (Fox, 2005-)
How I Met Your Mother (CBS, 2005-)
Kitchen Nightmares (Fox, 2007-)
Law & Order: SVU (NBC, 1999-)
The Mentalist (CBS, 2008-)
NCIS (CBS, 2003-)
The Office (NBC, 2005-)
Parenthood (NBC, 2010-)
Parks and Recreation (NBC, 2009-)
Royal Pains (USA, 2009-)
Rules of Engagement (CBS, 2007-)
The Secret Life of the American Teenager (ABC Family, 2008-)
The Simpsons (Fox, 1989-)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox, 2005-)
Sons of Anarchy (FX, 2008-)
Southland (NBC/TNT, 2009-)
Supernatural (The WB/The CW, 2005-)
Survivor (CBS, 2000-)
Two and a Half Men (CBS, 2003-)
True Blood (HBO, 2008-)
Wipeout (ABC, 2008-)
ENDED SHOWS:
24 (Fox, 2001-10)
30 Rock (NBC, 2006-)
According to Jim (ABC, 2001-09)
Arrested Development (Fox, 2003-06)*
Boston Legal (ABC, 2004-08)
Brothers & Sisters (ABC, 2006-11)
Chuck (NBC, 2007-12)
Cold Case (CBS, 2003-10)
CSI: Miami (CBS, 2002-12)
Deal or No Deal (NBC, 2005-09)
Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime, 2009-12)
Desperate Housewives (ABC, 2004-12)
ER (NBC, 1994-2009)
Everybody Hates Chris (UPN/The CW, 2005-09)
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC, 2003-12)
Flashpoint (CBS, 2007-11)
Friday Night Lights (NBC, 2006-11)
Fringe (Fox, 2008-13)
Ghost Whisperer (CBS, 2005-10)
Gossip Girl (The CW, 2007-)
Heroes (NBC, 2006-10)
House (Fox, 2004-12)
In Plain Sight (USA, 2008-12)
Jericho (CBS, 2006-08)*
Jersey Shore (MTV, 2009-)
Law & Order (NBC, 1990-2010)
Law & Order: Criminal Intent (NBC/USA, 2001-11)
Leverage (TNT, 2008-12)
Life (NBC, 2007-09)*
Lost (ABC, 2004-10)
Medium (NBC/CBS, 2005-11)
The Moment of Truth (Fox, 2008)*
My Name is Earl (NBC, 2005-09)
The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS, 2006-10)
Numb3rs (CBS, 2005-10)
One Tree Hill (The WB/The CW, 2003-12)
Prison Break (Fox, 2005-09)
Private Practice (ABC, 2007-)
Pushing Daisies (ABC, 2007-09)*
Reaper (CW, 2007-09)*
Scrubs (NBC/ABC, 2001-10)
Smallville (The WB/The CW, 2001-11)
Supernanny (ABC, 2005-11)
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles (Fox, 2008-09)*
'Til Death (Fox, 2006-10)
Ugly Betty (ABC, 2006-10)
The Unit (CBS, 2006-09)
Wife Swap (ABC, 2004-10)
Without a Trace (CBS, 2002-09)
*- "flashback" post for shows with shorter runs/incomplete info
YEARLY INDICES:
The yearly index posts take the seasons' low/average/high numbers from all the above War of 18-49 show posts, line them up by year, and also link back to all the available weekly ratings posts. Prior to 2010-11, they're not comprehensive lists of every single show in primetime, but they should help give some perspective on relative ratings. (NOTE: Some of the War of 18-49 posts still refer back to the previous versions of these posts, called the War of 18-49 Battlegrounds. These posts linked below are "better," though.)
1999-2000 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012-13
UPDATES:
With most of the covered shows having established pages already, the majority of War of 18-49 posts these days are "War of 18-49 Updates," posts in which I give a letter grade to the ratings for the most recent season of a show. At the same time, I also add those new numbers into the previously existing War of 18-49 post. Each show's update posts are also available on its show page; if the season number is clickable, there's an update.
War of 18-49 Update Rubric (explanation of my letter grading)
All War of 18-49 Updates
BUREAUCRATIC:
Summer 2010 Intro 1
Summer 2010 Intro 2
Summer 2010 Post-mortem
Winter 2010 Intro
Summer 2011 Intro
MISCELLANEOUS:
Final Battlegrounds color-coded by genre (summer 2010, numbers now out of date)
Some War of 18-49 Fun Facts (summer 2010, numbers now out of date)
War is Over, or The War of 18-49 Post-mortem
I hate to be one of those people who just writes about what I'm going to write about in the future, since 1) nobody cares and 2) it's usually a sign that the end is near (how many dead blogs end with a post that says "more to come tomorrow!") but I hope that my 59-part epic poem about TV ratings in the 2000s was enough to earn me one such rant.
Looking Back on the War of 18-49
I feel quite a sense of accomplishment having set out to do what seemed like a truly overwhelming project and actually getting it done. I started digging for ratings within a week or two of the end of the regular season, decided to write up the whole deal sometime in June, started rolling out the posts in early July, and in late August, here we are, finally wrapping it up. Quite a massive project, and probably a bigger undertaking than anything else I'll do on this blog.
My primary goal with this was to become more knowledgeable about TV ratings, and I think I have done that. I feel like I had a decent knack for looking at the numbers before, but now my context is much more considerable and I have a great archive of numbers to look back on. It kinda bugs me that I couldn't find more complete ratings for most of these shows, and I'm sorry if you feel the incompleteness is... I dunno, "unprofessional" or something. I'm sure there are some individual show fanatics out there who have more data on their shows than I do, but I still feel I've put together a pretty impressive collection of old ratings, particularly in the all-important A18-49 demo. (So many places with old ratings just look at households or viewers.) Even though I feel like I often spent half of the posts apologizing for my lack of info, in most cases the estimates are fine as a starting point. If I ever find a source somewhere that can fill in all the missing info, I may go back and do some serious re-averaging some time.
Till then, I've still learned a ton from a sheer numbers standpoint. If even one reader feels the same way from reading this stuff, that's awesome. This series didn't make the blog an overnight sensation or anything, not even close, but I think quite a few people stumbled across this blog thanks to the War and I hope some have stuck around. I really appreciate everyone who's read, commented, or shouted out, and I hope you'll stick with me going forward. Speaking of going forward...
The Future of the War of 18-49
We're a long way from summer 2011, but my extremely preliminary plans are to bring back The War of 18-49 next summer. The idea kind of turns my stomach right now, since this project chewed up such a massive portion of my free time this summer! But there's plenty more history to be archived.(Also, future versions would not take nearly as much time. Not even in the same stratosphere.) So here are a few of the ideas:
Looking Back on the War of 18-49
I feel quite a sense of accomplishment having set out to do what seemed like a truly overwhelming project and actually getting it done. I started digging for ratings within a week or two of the end of the regular season, decided to write up the whole deal sometime in June, started rolling out the posts in early July, and in late August, here we are, finally wrapping it up. Quite a massive project, and probably a bigger undertaking than anything else I'll do on this blog.
My primary goal with this was to become more knowledgeable about TV ratings, and I think I have done that. I feel like I had a decent knack for looking at the numbers before, but now my context is much more considerable and I have a great archive of numbers to look back on. It kinda bugs me that I couldn't find more complete ratings for most of these shows, and I'm sorry if you feel the incompleteness is... I dunno, "unprofessional" or something. I'm sure there are some individual show fanatics out there who have more data on their shows than I do, but I still feel I've put together a pretty impressive collection of old ratings, particularly in the all-important A18-49 demo. (So many places with old ratings just look at households or viewers.) Even though I feel like I often spent half of the posts apologizing for my lack of info, in most cases the estimates are fine as a starting point. If I ever find a source somewhere that can fill in all the missing info, I may go back and do some serious re-averaging some time.
Till then, I've still learned a ton from a sheer numbers standpoint. If even one reader feels the same way from reading this stuff, that's awesome. This series didn't make the blog an overnight sensation or anything, not even close, but I think quite a few people stumbled across this blog thanks to the War and I hope some have stuck around. I really appreciate everyone who's read, commented, or shouted out, and I hope you'll stick with me going forward. Speaking of going forward...
The Future of the War of 18-49
We're a long way from summer 2011, but my extremely preliminary plans are to bring back The War of 18-49 next summer. The idea kind of turns my stomach right now, since this project chewed up such a massive portion of my free time this summer! But there's plenty more history to be archived.(Also, future versions would not take nearly as much time. Not even in the same stratosphere.) So here are a few of the ideas:
- Breaking down the battlegrounds: As I was finishing off my Final Battlegrounds post, which went up yesterday, I realized that post is pretty damn big. I think I'm going to break it apart into some more manageable pieces so we can track how similar shows evolved over time. Ideally, I'll do that within the next three weeks, so that isn't a next summer thing.
- Updates to the War: Everything that will be on the air in 2010-11 will hopefully at least get its 2010-11 average added on and maybe another sentence added to their text. I've thought about taking a select set of shows that already have a War of 18-49 post but had a very interesting year for one reason or another and re-featuring those. We'll see how 2010-11 shakes down.
- Additions to the War: The main criteria for additions to the War of 18-49 going forward will remain that the show has been on the air for 4+ years. That may not be a totally hard and fast rule, but I will continue to use it for the average new addition. So the very first new additions would be newly eligible shows like Chuck, Gossip Girl, The Big Bang Theory, and Private Practice. There are some other shows that are eligible but that I didn't do for a variety of reasons. There are a few eligible shows like Deal or No Deal, King of the Hill, Prison Break, and Everybody Hates Chris which I didn't get around to or forgot about until very late in the process. I may look at those shows which failed my "too boring" criteria that pushed out America's Funniest Home Videos, all the newsmagazines, and Fox Saturday stuff, but probably not (I don't want tons of shows where I know nothing about the early history; I think L&O, Simpsons, and ER were enough). Beyond that, I would probably look into bending the "ended recently" rule to look at some defining shows like Friends that I'd have at least some data on, but again, I'd be missing the early history in most cases. I might look into cable shows also, but I kinda doubt it, because again of the availability of data issue. We'll see. I may just do the new broadcast shows from 2007-08 and call it a day.
- Other projects: Every once in awhile I'll take on a one-shot type of project that looks at some theme or trend or something, and those will only get better now that I have so much more info. I'm not sure I'd want to go ten years into the past for a post like The Finale Spike, but it'll be cool to have that option. So the benefits of the War of 18-49 certainly don't end with this post. Bottom line is I'll just plain know more stuff and have access to more stuff, and that can never hurt.
Friday, August 27, 2010
The War of 18-49, Final Battlegrounds!
EDIT: I'm leaving this post as is, but some of the info is now out of date, and the updated "Battlegrounds" have been split up into several posts by year. For the now updated posts, see the War of 18-49 Index.
This is it, folks... the last official War of 18-49 post, at least for this summer. I think I'm going to do a few posts between now and the start of the regular season that will break this massive final battlegrounds post up into some more manageable/readable parts, but I won't put those under the official War of 18-49 banner. (As if being under the official War of 18-49 banner is such an important thing!) Also look for another post hopefully tomorrow looking back on this entire project and ahead to other War of 18-49-related posts like the aforementioned breakdowns, and then on Sunday my fall preview begins!
1999-2000
ER 12.2/15.0/20.2
Survivor (summer) 6.1/12.07/22.8
The Simpsons 6.3/7.7/9.2
Law & Order 5.6/7.1/7.8
Law & Order: SVU (half on F) 3.6/4.9/6.6
2000-01
ER 10.4/13.66/16.1
Survivor (fall) 11.2/12.57/15.9
The Simpsons 6.9/7.9/9.8
Law & Order 5.8/7.2/9.2
CSI (half on F) 4.4/6.6/9.3
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.1/5.7
2001-02
ER 10.9/12.77/14.7
CSI 6.6/8.8/10.5
Survivor (spring) 7.5/8.6/10.4
Survivor (fall) 6.6/8.59/11.3
Law & Order 6.2/7.4/8.8
American Idol Performance (summer) 4.5/6.2/9.3
Scrubs 5.4/6.1/8.3
The Simpsons 4.2/6.1/7.5
American Idol Results (summer) 4.1/5.8/10.7
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.3/5.4/6.2
The Bachelor (spring) 3.7/5.0/7.3
According to Jim 3.2/4.7/5.8
The Amazing Race (spring) 3.8/4.6/6.1
24 3.7/4.4/5.4
Law & Order: CI 3.5/4.4/6.8
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.6/4.2/6.0
Smallville 2.6/3.2/3.8
2002-03
ER 8.9/10.99/13.1
CSI 8.0/10.0/11.6
American Idol Performance 8.5/9.9/12.4
American Idol Results 7.9/9.9/14.9
Survivor (fall) 7.4/8.7/9.9
Scrubs 5.4/8.1/10.9
The Bachelor (fall) 4.9/7.87/11.9
The Bachelorette (winter) 6.0/7.85/9.3
Survivor (spring) 6.1/7.5/9.1
CSI: Miami 5.4/6.73/8.6
The Simpsons 4.6/6.6/10.3
Law & Order 5.1/6.6/7.6
The Bachelor (spring) 4.7/5.99/7.2
24 4.3/5.7/6.6
Without a Trace 4.3/5.4/6.4
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.2/6.3
Law & Order: CI 4.4/5.2/6.0
According to Jim 3.0/4.50/6.1
Smallville 3.8/4.1/4.5
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.2/3.95/4.7
The Amazing Race (summer) 2.8/3.2/3.7
America's Next Top Model (summer) 1.2/1.8/2.3
2003-04
American Idol Performance 9.0/10.8/13.1
The Apprentice 9.1/10.31/13.6
American Idol Results 8.5/10.2/12.7
ER 8.3/10.14/13.8
CSI 6.5/9.4/10.8
Survivor (spring) 7.2/8.57/10.6
Survivor (fall) 7.0/8.1/9.7
CSI: Miami 5.9/7.01/9.0
The Bachelor (fall) 4.8/6.44/8.8
Law & Order 5.0/5.9/7.6
Without a Trace 4.7/5.7/6.8
Two and a Half Men 4.8/5.6/6.6
Scrubs 3.4/5.5/8.3
Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.38/7.4
The Bachelorette (winter) 4.1/5.24/6.2
The Bachelor (spring) 4.2/5.22/6.0
The Simpsons 3.2/5.1/7.8
Law & Order: CI 4.0/4.8/5.7
The Amazing Race (summer) 4.3/4.7/5.6
According to Jim 3.3/4.5/6.0
24 3.0/4.5/5.9
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.6/4.08/5.8
Cold Case 2.7/3.5/4.3
America's Next Top Model 2.2/3.0/3.8
(Navy) NCIS 2.4/2.8/3.1
Smallville 2.1/2.7/3.0
One Tree Hill 0.8/1.5/2.1
2004-05
American Idol Performance 9.8/11.2/14.0
American Idol Results 9.0/11.0/12.5
Desperate Housewives 8.6/10.66/13.4
CSI 8.3/9.92/11.6
ER 6.5/8.26/9.8
Grey's Anatomy 7.2/8.09/9.8
The Apprentice (fall) 6.6/7.66/8.3
Survivor (spring) 6.4/7.5/9.1
CSI: Miami 6.5/7.47/8.6
Survivor (fall) 6.8/7.4/7.8
Lost 5.9/6.89/8.4
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 3.4/6.56/9.0
Without a Trace 3.3/6.5/7.7
The Apprentice (winter) 4.8/6.48/7.4
Two and a Half Men 4.6/5.9/8.1
Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.54/6.5
Medium 4.4/5.5/6.3
CSI: NY 3.8/5.3/7.1
The Amazing Race (spring)
House 2.5/5.28/7.7
Dancing with the Stars (summer) 4.3/5.1/6.7
24 4.5/5.06/6.3
The Amazing Race (winter) 4.0/4.6/5.2
Law & Order 3.6/4.56/6.2
The Simpsons 3.4/4.5/5.6
The Biggest Loser 3.7/4.4/5.9
Wife Swap 3.1/4.18/5.3
Family Guy (some in summer) 3.0/4.1/5.8
Law & Order: CI 2.8/4.1/5.3
The Bachelorette (winter) 3.3/3.9/5.0
Supernanny 2.9/3.86/4.7
Cold Case 3.1/3.8/4.8
According to Jim 3.0/3.8/4.9
American Dad! 3.0/3.7/4.7
The Bachelor (fall) 3.3/3.69/3.9
The Bachelor (spring) 2.9/3.51/3.9
Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.4/5.0
NCIS 2.9/3.3/3.9
Scrubs 2.4/3.3/4.3
The Office 2.3/2.95/5.0
America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.2/2.5/3.0
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.8/2.4/2.9
Smallville 1.8/2.3/3.0
One Tree Hill 1.6/2.0/2.4
2005-06
American Idol Performance 11.4/12.9/15.3
American Idol Results 9.2/12.0/14.2
Desperate Housewives 7.5/10.09/12.3
Grey's Anatomy 7.2/9.13/11.2
CSI 7.4/9.08/10.6
Lost 6.1/7.92/10.2
House 4.8/7.16/10.2
Survivor (fall) 5.7/6.54/7.7
CSI: Miami 5.3/6.35/7.0
Without a Trace 5.0/6.31/7.3
ER 5.1/6.16/7.1
Survivor (spring) 4.9/5.82/7.0
24 4.8/5.67/7.0
Law & Order: SVU 4.8/5.48/6.5
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.8/5.42/7.1
Two and a Half Men 3.8/5.15/5.9
My Name is Earl 4.0/5.13/6.6
Dancing with the Stars (winter performance) 4.6/5.1/5.5
CSI: NY 4.3/4.97/6.5
The Apprentice (fall) 4.5/4.97/5.7
The Simpsons 3.5/4.6/5.6
Family Guy 3.8/4.3/4.8
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.5/4.3/4.7
Medium 3.7/4.29/5.2
The Office 3.6/4.15/5.1
The Biggest Loser 3.0/4.12/6.7
Criminal Minds 3.3/4.08/6.5
The Bachelor (winter) 2.7/3.98/5.1
Old Christine 2.4/3.9/5.1
The Apprentice (winter/spring) 3.3/3.88/4.4
NCIS 3.0/3.87/4.4
Bones 2.8/3.8/5.2
Cold Case 2.9/3.8/4.5
Law & Order 2.6/3.72/4.8
American Dad! 3.1/3.7/4.1
How I Met Your Mother 3.0/3.7/4.4
Dancing with the Stars (winter results) (F) 3.0/3.6/4.0
Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.40/3.8
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.5/3.4/4.1
Wife Swap 2.6/3.34/4.4
Law & Order: CI 2.6/3.33/4.1
Scrubs 2.6/3.11/4.0
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.3/3.1/3.6
Supernanny (half on F) 1.7/3.1/4.4
According to Jim 1.9/2.6/3.2
America's Next Top Model (fall) 2.1/2.5/3.0
Smallville 1.8/2.4/2.9
America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.0/2.3/2.8
Supernatural 1.6/2.2/2.6
One Tree Hill 1.3/1.5/1.7
2006-07
American Idol Performance 9.3/11.78/15.8
American Idol Results 9.9/11.99/15.5
Grey's Anatomy 7.6/9.38/11.6
House 5.8/7.94/11.2
Desperate Housewives 6.1/7.57/9.6
CSI 5.2/6.91/8.4
Heroes 5.1/6.13/6.9
Lost 4.9/5.85/7.7
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 5.2/5.7/7.5
CSI: Miami 4.7/5.61/6.5
Survivor (fall) 4.3/5.46/6.5
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.8/5.2/6.4
ER 3.1/4.96/6.8
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.7/4.9/7.1
24 3.8/4.80/6.1
Two and a Half Men 3.6/4.78/5.8
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.5/4.77/6.4
Brothers & Sisters 3.4/4.67/6.0
Survivor (spring) 4.1/4.65/5.7
Law & Order: SVU 3.8/4.65/5.3
CSI: NY 3.3/4.57/6.0
Rules of Engagement 3.6/4.57/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 3.9/4.5/6.7
Family Guy 3.6/4.32/4.8
Criminal Minds 3.3/4.27/5.2
The Simpsons 3.0/4.26/5.4
The Office 3.2/4.13/5.0
Ugly Betty 2.8/3.97/5.0
Without a Trace 3.0/3.95/4.8
The Bachelor (spring) 3.4/3.89/4.8
My Name is Earl 3.0/3.82/4.6
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.3/3.8/4.1
NCIS 3.1/3.66/4.2
Cold Case 2.7/3.62/4.3
American Dad! 2.8/3.6/4.5
Old Christine 2.4/3.45/4.4
Supernanny 2.1/3.41/4.2
The Biggest Loser 2.6/3.34/4.8
How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.33/3.9
Wife Swap 2.4/3.30/3.9
Bones 2.5/3.3/4.4
The Bachelor (fall) 2.7/3.27/3.9
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.8/3.18/3.9
Scrubs 2.3/3.08/4.0
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.5/3.00/3.6
Numb3rs (F) 2.3/2.98/3.5
Law & Order: CI 2.0/2.94/4.2
Medium 2.4/2.91/3.7
'Til Death 1.7/2.90/6.3
The Apprentice 2.3/2.86/4.1
Law & Order (F) 1.9/2.75/3.6
30 Rock 1.7/2.57/3.2
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.9/2.51/3.0
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.8/2.46/3.0
According to Jim 1.8/2.31/3.2
Friday Night Lights 1.7/2.30/3.5
Smallville 1.4/1.92/2.34
Supernatural 1.2/1.38/1.7
One Tree Hill 0.9/1.32/1.9
2007-08
American Idol Performance 8.4/10.6/13.8
American Idol Results 6.8/10.0/12.6
Grey's Anatomy 5.1/7.16/8.8
House 5.1/7.05/9.0
Desperate Housewives 5.5/6.71/7.8
CSI 4.2/5.78/8.2
Lost 4.6/5.31/6.7
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 4.7/5.3/6.0
Heroes 4.9/5.24/6.5
Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.95/5.4
Family Guy 3.6/4.77/5.6
Survivor (fall) 4.5/4.72/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.1/4.7/5.6
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.9/4.6/6.4
The Office 3.6/4.53/5.1
CSI: Miami 3.9/4.42/4.9
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.3/4.41/5.6
Law & Order: SVU 3.6/4.39/5.1
Brothers & Sisters 3.0/4.22/5.0
Survivor (spring) 3.8/4.16/4.8
Rules of Engagement 3.7/4.05/4.5
Dancing with the Stars (spring results): 3.6/4.0/4.4
The Simpsons 2.9/3.97/5.7
Without a Trace 3.1/3.80/6.4
Criminal Minds 3.1/3.64/4.5
The Celebrity Apprentice 3.1/3.62/4.5
CSI: NY 2.9/3.61/4.1
The Amazing Race (winter) 2.8/3.53/4.3
How I Met Your Mother 3.1/3.50/4.5
The Bachelor (fall) 3.2/3.48/4.2
Old Christine 2.7/3.46/4.5
ER 2.9/3.45/4.1
The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.9/3.44/4.4
NCIS 2.9/3.36/4.1
The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.7/3.27/4.6
American Dad! 2.4/3.18/4.2
Bones 2.7/3.17/3.6
Law & Order 2.6/3.16/3.8
Medium 2.5/3.11/3.5
Scrubs 2.4/3.10/3.8
My Name is Earl 2.4/3.09/3.8
Ugly Betty 2.2/3.03/3.9
Cold Case 2.1/2.91/3.5
30 Rock 2.5/2.82/3.4
The Bachelor (spring) 2.3/2.68/3.2
Supernanny 1.4/2.66/4.0
The Bachelorette (summer) 1.8/2.55/3.7
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.0/2.50/2.9
Numb3rs (F) 2.1/2.48/2.8
'Til Death 1.9/2.47/4.3
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.6/2.38/2.8
Wife Swap 1.6/2.21/3.3
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.7/1.93/2.3
Friday Night Lights (F) 1.7/1.85/2.1
Smallville 1.4/1.70/2.1
According to Jim 1.1/1.57/2.3
Law & Order: CI (USA) 1.1/1.4/1.7
One Tree Hill 1.1/1.34/1.6
Supernatural 1.0/1.19/1.3
2008-09
American Idol Performance 8.0/9.1/11.7
American Idol Results 7.7/9.2/11.8
Grey's Anatomy 5.0/5.73/7.4
Desperate Housewives 4.1/5.29/7.1
House 4.5/5.21/6.0
Two and a Half Men 4.0/5.06/5.6
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.2/4.9/6.1
CSI 3.4/4.75/7.1
Lost 3.8/4.46/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.9/4.3/5.3
The Office 3.4/4.27/4.9
The Bachelor (winter) 3.1/4.23/6.7
Survivor (fall) 3.8/4.17/4.5
How I Met Your Mother 2.9/4.01/4.8
CSI: Miami 3.3/3.98/5.2
Family Guy 3.2/3.98/5.1
Survivor (spring) 3.5/3.91/4.5
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.3/3.9/5.1
The Biggest Loser (spring) 3.2/3.78/4.7
Heroes 2.6/3.65/5.0
Rules of Engagement 1.9/3.65/4.4
24 3.1/3.64/4.3
NCIS 3.1/3.64/4.0
Criminal Minds 3.0/3.61/4.7
Law & Order: SVU 2.5/3.55/3.9
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.8/3.5/5.2
ER 2.6/3.49/6.0
Brothers & Sisters 2.8/3.47/4.6
CSI: NY 2.9/3.38/4.3
The Simpsons 2.5/3.38/6.2
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.9/3.32/4.1
30 Rock 2.4/3.30/4.1
The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.6/3.23/4.6
The Celebrity Apprentice 2.8/3.15/3.9
The Amazing Race (fall) 2.7/3.15/3.5
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.11/3.7
Bones 2.3/2.93/3.5
American Dad! 2.3/2.91/3.6
Without a Trace 2.5/2.73/3.4
Cold Case 2.1/2.68/3.1
The Bachelorette (summer) 2.1/2.62/3.5
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.1/2.53/2.9
My Name is Earl 1.7/2.46/2.8
Medium 1.9/2.38/2.9
Ugly Betty 1.7/2.34/3.3
Law & Order 1.7/2.26/3.0
Numb3rs (F) 1.8/2.23/2.7
Scrubs 1.5/2.16/3.2
Old Christine 1.6/2.05/2.4
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.7/1.97/2.3
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.4/1.76/1.9
'Til Death 1.4/1.75/2.3
Supernanny (F) 1.1/1.69/2.3
Smallville 1.3/1.61/1.9
Wife Swap (F) 1.1/1.50/1.8
One Tree Hill 1.1/1.43/1.9
Supernatural 1.1/1.33/1.7
Friday Night Lights (F) 1.1/1.32/1.6
According to Jim 0.9/1.31/2.2
Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.9/1.2/1.5
2009-10
American Idol Performance 6.2/8.34/11.8
American Idol Results 5.9/7.73/10.1
Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.94/5.8
House 3.6/4.85/6.7
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 6.4/4.84/4.0
Grey's Anatomy 3.5/4.83/6.7
Lost 3.7/4.49/5.8
Desperate Housewives 3.3/4.25/5.3
The Bachelor (winter) 3.3/4.08/5.3
NCIS 3.1/4.07/4.8
The Office 3.2/3.97/4.8
Survivor (spring) 3.4/3.91/4.5
Survivor (fall) 3.4/3.86/4.4
Family Guy 3.1/3.85/5.2
The Biggest Loser (fall) 3.1/3.74/5.0
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.4/3.67/4.1
Criminal Minds 3.1/3.60/4.4
CSI: Miami 2.7/3.59/4.3
How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.53/4.0
CSI 2.8/3.40/4.1
The Simpsons 2.4/3.38/6.9
The Amazing Race (fall) 2.8/3.38/3.7
The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.8/3.36/4.6
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 2.6/3.33/4.3
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.13/3.9
CSI: NY 2.3/3.03/4.0
Rules of Engagement 2.5/3.00/3.6
The Bachelorette (summer) 2.5/2.98/3.8
24 2.3/2.93/3.9
American Dad! 2.0/2.89/3.6
Bones 2.4/2.88/3.6
Brothers & Sisters 2.2/2.85/3.7
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.4/2.83/3.9
The Celebrity Apprentice 2.3/2.80/3.4
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.1/2.71/3.7
30 Rock 1.9/2.69/3.3
Law & Order: SVU 2.0/2.68/3.3
Heroes 1.8/2.30/2.8
Cold Case 1.7/2.15/2.6
Old Christine 1.5/1.94/2.3
Ghost Whisperer (F) 1.3/1.86/2.3
Medium (F) 1.3/1.84/2.2
Numb3rs (F) 1.6/1.79/2.2
Law & Order (half on F) 1.2/1.64/2.0
Scrubs 1.1/1.52/2.3
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.3/1.51/1.8
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.2/1.51/1.7
Ugly Betty (F) 0.9/1.36/1.7
Supernanny (F) 0.9/1.24/1.6
Supernatural 1.0/1.22/1.4
Wife Swap (F) 0.9/1.12/1.4
One Tree Hill 0.9/1.10/1.3
Friday Night Lights (F) (summer) 0.9/1.06/1.3
Smallville (F) 0.7/1.01/1.2
Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.7/0.88/1.1
'Til Death (F) 0.5/0.82/1.3
This is it, folks... the last official War of 18-49 post, at least for this summer. I think I'm going to do a few posts between now and the start of the regular season that will break this massive final battlegrounds post up into some more manageable/readable parts, but I won't put those under the official War of 18-49 banner. (As if being under the official War of 18-49 banner is such an important thing!) Also look for another post hopefully tomorrow looking back on this entire project and ahead to other War of 18-49-related posts like the aforementioned breakdowns, and then on Sunday my fall preview begins!
1999-2000
ER 12.2/15.0/20.2
Survivor (summer) 6.1/12.07/22.8
The Simpsons 6.3/7.7/9.2
Law & Order 5.6/7.1/7.8
Law & Order: SVU (half on F) 3.6/4.9/6.6
2000-01
ER 10.4/13.66/16.1
Survivor (fall) 11.2/12.57/15.9
The Simpsons 6.9/7.9/9.8
Law & Order 5.8/7.2/9.2
CSI (half on F) 4.4/6.6/9.3
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.1/5.7
2001-02
ER 10.9/12.77/14.7
CSI 6.6/8.8/10.5
Survivor (spring) 7.5/8.6/10.4
Survivor (fall) 6.6/8.59/11.3
Law & Order 6.2/7.4/8.8
American Idol Performance (summer) 4.5/6.2/9.3
Scrubs 5.4/6.1/8.3
The Simpsons 4.2/6.1/7.5
American Idol Results (summer) 4.1/5.8/10.7
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.3/5.4/6.2
The Bachelor (spring) 3.7/5.0/7.3
According to Jim 3.2/4.7/5.8
The Amazing Race (spring) 3.8/4.6/6.1
24 3.7/4.4/5.4
Law & Order: CI 3.5/4.4/6.8
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.6/4.2/6.0
Smallville 2.6/3.2/3.8
2002-03
ER 8.9/10.99/13.1
CSI 8.0/10.0/11.6
American Idol Performance 8.5/9.9/12.4
American Idol Results 7.9/9.9/14.9
Survivor (fall) 7.4/8.7/9.9
Scrubs 5.4/8.1/10.9
The Bachelor (fall) 4.9/7.87/11.9
The Bachelorette (winter) 6.0/7.85/9.3
Survivor (spring) 6.1/7.5/9.1
CSI: Miami 5.4/6.73/8.6
The Simpsons 4.6/6.6/10.3
Law & Order 5.1/6.6/7.6
The Bachelor (spring) 4.7/5.99/7.2
24 4.3/5.7/6.6
Without a Trace 4.3/5.4/6.4
Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.2/6.3
Law & Order: CI 4.4/5.2/6.0
According to Jim 3.0/4.50/6.1
Smallville 3.8/4.1/4.5
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.2/3.95/4.7
The Amazing Race (summer) 2.8/3.2/3.7
America's Next Top Model (summer) 1.2/1.8/2.3
2003-04
American Idol Performance 9.0/10.8/13.1
The Apprentice 9.1/10.31/13.6
American Idol Results 8.5/10.2/12.7
ER 8.3/10.14/13.8
CSI 6.5/9.4/10.8
Survivor (spring) 7.2/8.57/10.6
Survivor (fall) 7.0/8.1/9.7
CSI: Miami 5.9/7.01/9.0
The Bachelor (fall) 4.8/6.44/8.8
Law & Order 5.0/5.9/7.6
Without a Trace 4.7/5.7/6.8
Two and a Half Men 4.8/5.6/6.6
Scrubs 3.4/5.5/8.3
Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.38/7.4
The Bachelorette (winter) 4.1/5.24/6.2
The Bachelor (spring) 4.2/5.22/6.0
The Simpsons 3.2/5.1/7.8
Law & Order: CI 4.0/4.8/5.7
The Amazing Race (summer) 4.3/4.7/5.6
According to Jim 3.3/4.5/6.0
24 3.0/4.5/5.9
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.6/4.08/5.8
Cold Case 2.7/3.5/4.3
America's Next Top Model 2.2/3.0/3.8
(Navy) NCIS 2.4/2.8/3.1
Smallville 2.1/2.7/3.0
One Tree Hill 0.8/1.5/2.1
2004-05
American Idol Performance 9.8/11.2/14.0
American Idol Results 9.0/11.0/12.5
Desperate Housewives 8.6/10.66/13.4
CSI 8.3/9.92/11.6
ER 6.5/8.26/9.8
Grey's Anatomy 7.2/8.09/9.8
The Apprentice (fall) 6.6/7.66/8.3
Survivor (spring) 6.4/7.5/9.1
CSI: Miami 6.5/7.47/8.6
Survivor (fall) 6.8/7.4/7.8
Lost 5.9/6.89/8.4
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 3.4/6.56/9.0
Without a Trace 3.3/6.5/7.7
The Apprentice (winter) 4.8/6.48/7.4
Two and a Half Men 4.6/5.9/8.1
Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.54/6.5
Medium 4.4/5.5/6.3
CSI: NY 3.8/5.3/7.1
The Amazing Race (spring)
House 2.5/5.28/7.7
Dancing with the Stars (summer) 4.3/5.1/6.7
24 4.5/5.06/6.3
The Amazing Race (winter) 4.0/4.6/5.2
Law & Order 3.6/4.56/6.2
The Simpsons 3.4/4.5/5.6
The Biggest Loser 3.7/4.4/5.9
Wife Swap 3.1/4.18/5.3
Family Guy (some in summer) 3.0/4.1/5.8
Law & Order: CI 2.8/4.1/5.3
The Bachelorette (winter) 3.3/3.9/5.0
Supernanny 2.9/3.86/4.7
Cold Case 3.1/3.8/4.8
According to Jim 3.0/3.8/4.9
American Dad! 3.0/3.7/4.7
The Bachelor (fall) 3.3/3.69/3.9
The Bachelor (spring) 2.9/3.51/3.9
Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.4/5.0
NCIS 2.9/3.3/3.9
Scrubs 2.4/3.3/4.3
The Office 2.3/2.95/5.0
America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.2/2.5/3.0
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.8/2.4/2.9
Smallville 1.8/2.3/3.0
One Tree Hill 1.6/2.0/2.4
2005-06
American Idol Performance 11.4/12.9/15.3
American Idol Results 9.2/12.0/14.2
Desperate Housewives 7.5/10.09/12.3
Grey's Anatomy 7.2/9.13/11.2
CSI 7.4/9.08/10.6
Lost 6.1/7.92/10.2
House 4.8/7.16/10.2
Survivor (fall) 5.7/6.54/7.7
CSI: Miami 5.3/6.35/7.0
Without a Trace 5.0/6.31/7.3
ER 5.1/6.16/7.1
Survivor (spring) 4.9/5.82/7.0
24 4.8/5.67/7.0
Law & Order: SVU 4.8/5.48/6.5
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.8/5.42/7.1
Two and a Half Men 3.8/5.15/5.9
My Name is Earl 4.0/5.13/6.6
Dancing with the Stars (winter performance) 4.6/5.1/5.5
CSI: NY 4.3/4.97/6.5
The Apprentice (fall) 4.5/4.97/5.7
The Simpsons 3.5/4.6/5.6
Family Guy 3.8/4.3/4.8
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.5/4.3/4.7
Medium 3.7/4.29/5.2
The Office 3.6/4.15/5.1
The Biggest Loser 3.0/4.12/6.7
Criminal Minds 3.3/4.08/6.5
The Bachelor (winter) 2.7/3.98/5.1
Old Christine 2.4/3.9/5.1
The Apprentice (winter/spring) 3.3/3.88/4.4
NCIS 3.0/3.87/4.4
Bones 2.8/3.8/5.2
Cold Case 2.9/3.8/4.5
Law & Order 2.6/3.72/4.8
American Dad! 3.1/3.7/4.1
How I Met Your Mother 3.0/3.7/4.4
Dancing with the Stars (winter results) (F) 3.0/3.6/4.0
Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.40/3.8
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.5/3.4/4.1
Wife Swap 2.6/3.34/4.4
Law & Order: CI 2.6/3.33/4.1
Scrubs 2.6/3.11/4.0
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.3/3.1/3.6
Supernanny (half on F) 1.7/3.1/4.4
According to Jim 1.9/2.6/3.2
America's Next Top Model (fall) 2.1/2.5/3.0
Smallville 1.8/2.4/2.9
America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.0/2.3/2.8
Supernatural 1.6/2.2/2.6
One Tree Hill 1.3/1.5/1.7
2006-07
American Idol Performance 9.3/11.78/15.8
American Idol Results 9.9/11.99/15.5
Grey's Anatomy 7.6/9.38/11.6
House 5.8/7.94/11.2
Desperate Housewives 6.1/7.57/9.6
CSI 5.2/6.91/8.4
Heroes 5.1/6.13/6.9
Lost 4.9/5.85/7.7
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 5.2/5.7/7.5
CSI: Miami 4.7/5.61/6.5
Survivor (fall) 4.3/5.46/6.5
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.8/5.2/6.4
ER 3.1/4.96/6.8
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.7/4.9/7.1
24 3.8/4.80/6.1
Two and a Half Men 3.6/4.78/5.8
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.5/4.77/6.4
Brothers & Sisters 3.4/4.67/6.0
Survivor (spring) 4.1/4.65/5.7
Law & Order: SVU 3.8/4.65/5.3
CSI: NY 3.3/4.57/6.0
Rules of Engagement 3.6/4.57/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 3.9/4.5/6.7
Family Guy 3.6/4.32/4.8
Criminal Minds 3.3/4.27/5.2
The Simpsons 3.0/4.26/5.4
The Office 3.2/4.13/5.0
Ugly Betty 2.8/3.97/5.0
Without a Trace 3.0/3.95/4.8
The Bachelor (spring) 3.4/3.89/4.8
My Name is Earl 3.0/3.82/4.6
The Amazing Race (fall) 3.3/3.8/4.1
NCIS 3.1/3.66/4.2
Cold Case 2.7/3.62/4.3
American Dad! 2.8/3.6/4.5
Old Christine 2.4/3.45/4.4
Supernanny 2.1/3.41/4.2
The Biggest Loser 2.6/3.34/4.8
How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.33/3.9
Wife Swap 2.4/3.30/3.9
Bones 2.5/3.3/4.4
The Bachelor (fall) 2.7/3.27/3.9
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.8/3.18/3.9
Scrubs 2.3/3.08/4.0
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.5/3.00/3.6
Numb3rs (F) 2.3/2.98/3.5
Law & Order: CI 2.0/2.94/4.2
Medium 2.4/2.91/3.7
'Til Death 1.7/2.90/6.3
The Apprentice 2.3/2.86/4.1
Law & Order (F) 1.9/2.75/3.6
30 Rock 1.7/2.57/3.2
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.9/2.51/3.0
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.8/2.46/3.0
According to Jim 1.8/2.31/3.2
Friday Night Lights 1.7/2.30/3.5
Smallville 1.4/1.92/2.34
Supernatural 1.2/1.38/1.7
One Tree Hill 0.9/1.32/1.9
2007-08
American Idol Performance 8.4/10.6/13.8
American Idol Results 6.8/10.0/12.6
Grey's Anatomy 5.1/7.16/8.8
House 5.1/7.05/9.0
Desperate Housewives 5.5/6.71/7.8
CSI 4.2/5.78/8.2
Lost 4.6/5.31/6.7
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 4.7/5.3/6.0
Heroes 4.9/5.24/6.5
Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.95/5.4
Family Guy 3.6/4.77/5.6
Survivor (fall) 4.5/4.72/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.1/4.7/5.6
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.9/4.6/6.4
The Office 3.6/4.53/5.1
CSI: Miami 3.9/4.42/4.9
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.3/4.41/5.6
Law & Order: SVU 3.6/4.39/5.1
Brothers & Sisters 3.0/4.22/5.0
Survivor (spring) 3.8/4.16/4.8
Rules of Engagement 3.7/4.05/4.5
Dancing with the Stars (spring results): 3.6/4.0/4.4
The Simpsons 2.9/3.97/5.7
Without a Trace 3.1/3.80/6.4
Criminal Minds 3.1/3.64/4.5
The Celebrity Apprentice 3.1/3.62/4.5
CSI: NY 2.9/3.61/4.1
The Amazing Race (winter) 2.8/3.53/4.3
How I Met Your Mother 3.1/3.50/4.5
The Bachelor (fall) 3.2/3.48/4.2
Old Christine 2.7/3.46/4.5
ER 2.9/3.45/4.1
The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.9/3.44/4.4
NCIS 2.9/3.36/4.1
The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.7/3.27/4.6
American Dad! 2.4/3.18/4.2
Bones 2.7/3.17/3.6
Law & Order 2.6/3.16/3.8
Medium 2.5/3.11/3.5
Scrubs 2.4/3.10/3.8
My Name is Earl 2.4/3.09/3.8
Ugly Betty 2.2/3.03/3.9
Cold Case 2.1/2.91/3.5
30 Rock 2.5/2.82/3.4
The Bachelor (spring) 2.3/2.68/3.2
Supernanny 1.4/2.66/4.0
The Bachelorette (summer) 1.8/2.55/3.7
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.0/2.50/2.9
Numb3rs (F) 2.1/2.48/2.8
'Til Death 1.9/2.47/4.3
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.6/2.38/2.8
Wife Swap 1.6/2.21/3.3
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.7/1.93/2.3
Friday Night Lights (F) 1.7/1.85/2.1
Smallville 1.4/1.70/2.1
According to Jim 1.1/1.57/2.3
Law & Order: CI (USA) 1.1/1.4/1.7
One Tree Hill 1.1/1.34/1.6
Supernatural 1.0/1.19/1.3
2008-09
American Idol Performance 8.0/9.1/11.7
American Idol Results 7.7/9.2/11.8
Grey's Anatomy 5.0/5.73/7.4
Desperate Housewives 4.1/5.29/7.1
House 4.5/5.21/6.0
Two and a Half Men 4.0/5.06/5.6
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.2/4.9/6.1
CSI 3.4/4.75/7.1
Lost 3.8/4.46/5.2
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.9/4.3/5.3
The Office 3.4/4.27/4.9
The Bachelor (winter) 3.1/4.23/6.7
Survivor (fall) 3.8/4.17/4.5
How I Met Your Mother 2.9/4.01/4.8
CSI: Miami 3.3/3.98/5.2
Family Guy 3.2/3.98/5.1
Survivor (spring) 3.5/3.91/4.5
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.3/3.9/5.1
The Biggest Loser (spring) 3.2/3.78/4.7
Heroes 2.6/3.65/5.0
Rules of Engagement 1.9/3.65/4.4
24 3.1/3.64/4.3
NCIS 3.1/3.64/4.0
Criminal Minds 3.0/3.61/4.7
Law & Order: SVU 2.5/3.55/3.9
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.8/3.5/5.2
ER 2.6/3.49/6.0
Brothers & Sisters 2.8/3.47/4.6
CSI: NY 2.9/3.38/4.3
The Simpsons 2.5/3.38/6.2
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.9/3.32/4.1
30 Rock 2.4/3.30/4.1
The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.6/3.23/4.6
The Celebrity Apprentice 2.8/3.15/3.9
The Amazing Race (fall) 2.7/3.15/3.5
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.11/3.7
Bones 2.3/2.93/3.5
American Dad! 2.3/2.91/3.6
Without a Trace 2.5/2.73/3.4
Cold Case 2.1/2.68/3.1
The Bachelorette (summer) 2.1/2.62/3.5
Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.1/2.53/2.9
My Name is Earl 1.7/2.46/2.8
Medium 1.9/2.38/2.9
Ugly Betty 1.7/2.34/3.3
Law & Order 1.7/2.26/3.0
Numb3rs (F) 1.8/2.23/2.7
Scrubs 1.5/2.16/3.2
Old Christine 1.6/2.05/2.4
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.7/1.97/2.3
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.4/1.76/1.9
'Til Death 1.4/1.75/2.3
Supernanny (F) 1.1/1.69/2.3
Smallville 1.3/1.61/1.9
Wife Swap (F) 1.1/1.50/1.8
One Tree Hill 1.1/1.43/1.9
Supernatural 1.1/1.33/1.7
Friday Night Lights (F) 1.1/1.32/1.6
According to Jim 0.9/1.31/2.2
Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.9/1.2/1.5
2009-10
American Idol Performance 6.2/8.34/11.8
American Idol Results 5.9/7.73/10.1
Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.94/5.8
House 3.6/4.85/6.7
Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 6.4/4.84/4.0
Grey's Anatomy 3.5/4.83/6.7
Lost 3.7/4.49/5.8
Desperate Housewives 3.3/4.25/5.3
The Bachelor (winter) 3.3/4.08/5.3
NCIS 3.1/4.07/4.8
The Office 3.2/3.97/4.8
Survivor (spring) 3.4/3.91/4.5
Survivor (fall) 3.4/3.86/4.4
Family Guy 3.1/3.85/5.2
The Biggest Loser (fall) 3.1/3.74/5.0
Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.4/3.67/4.1
Criminal Minds 3.1/3.60/4.4
CSI: Miami 2.7/3.59/4.3
How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.53/4.0
CSI 2.8/3.40/4.1
The Simpsons 2.4/3.38/6.9
The Amazing Race (fall) 2.8/3.38/3.7
The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.8/3.36/4.6
Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 2.6/3.33/4.3
The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.13/3.9
CSI: NY 2.3/3.03/4.0
Rules of Engagement 2.5/3.00/3.6
The Bachelorette (summer) 2.5/2.98/3.8
24 2.3/2.93/3.9
American Dad! 2.0/2.89/3.6
Bones 2.4/2.88/3.6
Brothers & Sisters 2.2/2.85/3.7
Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.4/2.83/3.9
The Celebrity Apprentice 2.3/2.80/3.4
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.1/2.71/3.7
30 Rock 1.9/2.69/3.3
Law & Order: SVU 2.0/2.68/3.3
Heroes 1.8/2.30/2.8
Cold Case 1.7/2.15/2.6
Old Christine 1.5/1.94/2.3
Ghost Whisperer (F) 1.3/1.86/2.3
Medium (F) 1.3/1.84/2.2
Numb3rs (F) 1.6/1.79/2.2
Law & Order (half on F) 1.2/1.64/2.0
Scrubs 1.1/1.52/2.3
America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.3/1.51/1.8
America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.2/1.51/1.7
Ugly Betty (F) 0.9/1.36/1.7
Supernanny (F) 0.9/1.24/1.6
Supernatural 1.0/1.22/1.4
Wife Swap (F) 0.9/1.12/1.4
One Tree Hill 0.9/1.10/1.3
Friday Night Lights (F) (summer) 0.9/1.06/1.3
Smallville (F) 0.7/1.01/1.2
Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.7/0.88/1.1
'Til Death (F) 0.5/0.82/1.3
The War of 18-49, The Simpsons
THE SIMPSONS (FOX)
Scheduling history: The vast majority of The Simpsons' run has come on Sunday. The show was on Sunday in its short first season all the way back in early 1990, then moved to Thursday for the next four years, then went back to Sunday for fall of 1994 and has been on that evening for the eighteen seasons since.
See (who saw) how it all began: Like other posts for Law & Order and ER, The Simpsons is a show for which I'm unfortunately missing a ton of information. As with those two shows, I start tracking in 1999-00, the first year in which I have any reasonable amount of data. But I did see some numbers on the series premiere on 1/14/90. I saw a couple conflicting reports, so this really should be taken with a pretty massive grain of salt, but the number I'm going with is 24.53 million viewers and a 12.4/26 demo. I also saw a higher demo number that could be right. (I went with the lower one since it seemed to match the number of viewers better.) Either way, the premiere was one of the biggest in Fox history.
The best of times: Unlike ER and L&O, which seemingly peaked around the time I started getting data, I don't really know for sure on The Simpsons, so all I can really say is that the best seasons of data I have were from that period, circa 2000. The best regular in-timeslot data I have is the (preliminary) 9.8 and 10.3 demos scored by the one-hour show on 2/16/03 advertised as the 300th episode. (Though they were actually the 302nd and 303rd in broadcast order.)
The worst of times: The Simpsons has mostly gone downhill since then, though sometimes more slowly than other times, and the show now has less than half the demo audience of a decade ago. The series low for an original was a 1.9 demo on 5/13/12, but the show also pulls off extraordinary highs within each season thanks to its NFL lead-ins. Last season, it got as high as a 5.4 demo on 1/15/12 after an NFL playoff game.
Then vs. now: Of all the shows we've looked at (certainly all the big-four shows), The Simpsons is probably the most meaningful to the entire history of its network. Fox started in the 1986-87 season, so The Simpsons began in the fourth year of the net's nearly two and a half decades of existence, and it's still going strong today. Season 15 in 2003-04 was the last time the show took a sizable (>15%) drop year-to-year, and in the seven years since then it's only down a little over a third. That's not a bad drop at all over that long a period of time, and the show remains a really viable primetime player because it's still so strong in the younger male demos. Like Law & Order, it's proven that the key to longevity isn't necessarily staying at the very top of the primetime heap, as The Simpsons hasn't been close to those levels in many years. But thanks to its staying close to even, it should remain near the top in the numbers that matter most of all: ad dollars.
Adults 18-49 info by season:
| Season | Year | Timeslot | Lo | Avg | Hi | Results | Grade |
| 11 | 1999-00 | Sunday 8:00 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 9.2 | detail | |
| 12 | 2000-01 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 | detail | ||
| 13 | 2001-02 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | detail | ||
| 14 | 2002-03 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 10.3 | detail | ||
| 15 | 2003-04 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | detail | ||
| 16 | 2004-05 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.6 | detail | ||
| 17 | 2005-06 | 3.5 | 4.65 | 5.6 | detail | ||
| 18 | 2006-07 | 3.0 | 4.26 | 5.4 | detail | ||
| 19 | 2007-08 | 2.9 | 4.01 | 5.7 | detail | ||
| 20 | 2008-09 | 2.5 | 3.40 | 6.2 | detail | ||
| 21 | 2009-10 | 2.4 | 3.46 | 6.9 | detail | ||
| 22 | 2010-11 | 2.3 | 3.21 | 5.7 | detail | B | |
| 23 | 2011-12 | 1.9 | 2.87 | 5.4 | detail | C+ |
| Year | A18-49+ | Label | Year-to-Year | In-Season | ||
| Premiere | Average | Finale | P -> F | |||
| 1999-00 | -85% | |||||
| 2000-01 | n/a | +2% | n/a | n/a | ||
| 2001-02 | n/a | -23% | -39% | -40% | ||
| 2002-03 | +17% | +9% | +31% | -33% | ||
| 2003-04 | -12% | -23% | -20% | -39% | ||
| 2004-05 | -22% | -12% | +2% | -20% | ||
| 2005-06 | -7% | +4% | -12% | -24% | ||
| 2006-07 | 114 | solid | +2% | -8% | +14% | -15% |
| 2007-08 | 122 | solid | -11% | -6% | -36% | -38% |
| 2008-09 | 114 | solid | -4% | -15% | +0% | -36% |
| 2009-10 | 124 | solid | -4% | +2% | -14% | -42% |
| 2010-11 | 127 | hit | -14% | -7% | +0% | -32% |
| 2011-12 | 121 | solid | +5% | -11% | -16% | -46% |
For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
The War of 18-49, Survivor
SURVIVOR (CBS)
Scheduling history: The cultural phenomenon that was season one of Survivor aired on Wednesday, and then the show became a regular season fixture on Thursday for almost exactly a decade. It's returned to the lead-off role on Wednesday for the last few years.
See (who saw) how it all began: Survivor was one of those big-time unscripted franchises of today that once debuted in the summer! On 5/31/00, it got 15.51 million viewers and a 6.1/20 in the demo. Even ten years ago, this was a great start for a summer show. But it was only the beginning. It climbed almost 25% to a 7.5 in week two, then another 25% to a 9.4 in week three, and three weeks later its demos were in the double digits. For a summer show! Most summer shows of today are happy pulling in about a 3.0 demo. I'd say more about Survivor's phenomenal first season, but I wouldn't want to ruin the next segment...
The best of times: The two-hour season 1 finale of Survivor was a series high, with a freaking unbelievable 51.69 million viewers and a 22.8/54 in the demo. Yes, over half of the TV watchers on 8/23/00 in Survivor's timeslot were watching Survivor. So monstrous was this result that the next original episode of the show five months later scored a lower demo... not a surprising stat at all till you hear that said episode aired after the Super Bowl. Still, the measly 21.6 demo for the season 2 premiere launched the most consistently stout season overall. No all-new episode of the show scored below an 11.2 in the demo, and the clips episode of that season was still pretty amazing with a 9.7.
The worst of times: Survivor's gone downhill quite a bit since those first couple seasons but has pretty much always been a force in primetime. Most of the bleeding has happened in two periods: the 2001-02 season, in which those two cycles simply came down to earth after the monstrous first two seasons, and then from about 2004-05 through 2007-08, when both the fall and spring cycles typically took big year to year hits. From then, it was relatively stable until the spring 2011 season when it had to regularly face American Idol for the first time in 22 seasons. The show then had another bad spring in 2012, as a show that had gone 23 seasons without going sub-3.0 went below that mark for all but three episodes. The series low was the 2.3 demo for the reunion of the spring 2012 season, and it reached that mark again on Thanksgiving Eve 2012.
Then vs. now: Survivor was not usually the #1 option for CBS on Thursday nights. It was the all-star of the night in the very early 2000s, but by the 2002-03 season it was being easily outshone by CSI, and that pretty much remained the case until around spring of 2009. But though it didn't maintain the absolutely mammoth Nielsens of its first couple seasons, it has remained at worst a very solid option for an incredibly long time, and its consistency in the late aughts only made it look better and better as much of primetime has collapsed around it, including longtime lead-out CSI. The move to Wednesday might have appeared a possible hiccup, but it mostly pulled it off seamlessly. The two 2012 seasons were the show's weakest in quite some time, but it's still not gotten all that much weaker in the relative landscape than it was years ago. The end is not in immediate sight right now.
Season adults 18-49 lows/averages/highs:
| Season | Year | Timeslot | Lo | Avg | Hi | Results | Grade |
| 1 | Summer 2000 | Wednesday 9:00 | 6.1 | 12.07 | 22.8 | detail | |
| 2 | Spring 2001 | Thursday 8:00 | 11.2 | 12.57 | 15.9 | detail | |
| 3 | Fall 2001 | 6.6 | 8.59 | 11.3 | detail | ||
| 4 | Spring 2002 | 7.5 | 8.58 | 10.4 | detail | ||
| 5 | Fall 2002 | 7.4 | 8.70 | 9.9 | detail | ||
| 6 | Spring 2003 | 6.1 | 7.54 | 9.1 | detail | ||
| 7 | Fall 2003 | 7.0 | 8.05 | 9.7 | detail | ||
| 8 | Spring 2004 | 7.2 | 8.57 | 10.6 | detail | ||
| 9 | Fall 2004 | 6.8 | 7.41 | 7.8 | detail | ||
| 10 | Spring 2005 | 6.4 | 7.51 | 9.1 | detail | ||
| 11 | Fall 2005 | 5.7 | 6.54 | 7.7 | detail | ||
| 12 | Spring 2006 | 4.6 | 5.81 | 7.0 | detail | ||
| 13 | Fall 2006 | 4.3 | 5.46 | 6.5 | detail | ||
| 14 | Spring 2007 | 4.1 | 4.65 | 5.7 | detail | ||
| 15 | Fall 2007 | 4.5 | 4.72 | 5.2 | detail | ||
| 16 | Spring 2008 | 3.8 | 4.16 | 4.8 | detail | ||
| 17 | Fall 2008 | 3.8 | 4.19 | 4.5 | detail | ||
| 18 | Spring 2009 | 3.5 | 3.91 | 4.5 | detail | ||
| 19 | Fall 2009 | 3.4 | 3.86 | 4.4 | detail | ||
| 20 | Spring 2010 | 3.4 | 3.91 | 4.5 | detail | ||
| 21 | Fall 2010 | Wednesday 8:00 | 3.2 | 3.68 | 4.1 | detail | B+ |
| 22 | Spring 2011 | 3.1 | 3.28 | 4.0 | detail | B- | |
| 23 | Fall 2011 | 3.1 | 3.35 | 4.0 | detail | B | |
| 24 | Spring 2012 | 2.3 | 2.83 | 3.2 | detail | C- | |
| 25 | Fall 2012 | 2.3 | 2.86 | 3.2 | detail | C |
| Year | A18-49+ | Label | Year-to-Year | In-Season | ||
| Premiere | Average | Finale | P -> F | |||
| Summer 2000 | +274% | |||||
| Spring 2001 | +95% | +4% | -30% | +34% | ||
| Fall 2001 | +9% | |||||
| Spring 2002 | -24% | -32% | -35% | +14% | ||
| Fall 2002 | -8% | +1% | -12% | +3% | ||
| Spring 2003 | +0% | -12% | -14% | -2% | ||
| Fall 2003 | -13% | -7% | -2% | +15% | ||
| Spring 2004 | -2% | +14% | +12% | +12% | ||
| Fall 2004 | -7% | -8% | -23% | -4% | ||
| Spring 2005 | +2% | -12% | -22% | -14% | ||
| Fall 2005 | -15% | -12% | +3% | +17% | ||
| Spring 2006 | -23% | -23% | -21% | -11% | ||
| Fall 2006 | 146 | hit | -2% | -17% | -26% | -12% |
| Spring 2007 | 124 | solid | -19% | -20% | -26% | -19% |
| Fall 2007 | 144 | hit | -23% | -13% | -9% | +4% |
| Spring 2008 | 127 | hit | -16% | -10% | -4% | -8% |
| Fall 2008 | 141 | hit | -10% | -11% | -15% | -2% |
| Spring 2009 | 131 | hit | -8% | -6% | -5% | -5% |
| Fall 2009 | 138 | hit | -20% | -8% | +0% | +22% |
| Spring 2010 | 140 | hit | +2% | -0% | +0% | -7% |
| Fall 2010 | 145 | hit | +11% | -5% | -27% | -20% |
| Spring 2011 | 129 | hit | -29% | -16% | -5% | +25% |
| Fall 2011 | 142 | hit | -15% | -9% | +25% | +18% |
| Spring 2012 | 120 | solid | -3% | -14% | -28% | -6% |
| Fall 2012 | 129* | hit | -6% | -15% | -20% | +0% |
*- 2012-13 A18-49+ based on the season-to-date league average; will update at season's end based on final league average
For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.
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